Pirates Prospects Daily: What About Jack Suwinski?

The most common question I got about my article today, where I had LSU right-handed pitcher Paul Skenes as my pick, was “What about Jack Suwinski?”

In the article, I used Bryan Reynolds and Henry Davis as the placeholder corner outfielders for the present trio — which included Suwinski in center field. As I wrote the other day, Suwinski has been adjusting and trending positively in so many ways.

When he was acquired from the San Diego Padres, Suwinski was a prospect on the rise, or at least that’s what I wrote in Baseball America in December 2021. That article is actually great to revisit to see how the changes from Suwinski were already starting with the Padres, prior to the trade. The Pirates scouted him and found a guy whose value was on the rise. His ascension has not slowed since being acquired.

There’s no win for the 3200 word draft article. I didn’t want to go into the Henry Davis catching situation, which I think is going to be more complex than your normal everyday catching situation. Ironically enough, the Pirates used Davis in the game as catcher for the eighth inning. More on that later. I also didn’t want to get into the continued rise of Suwinski, which I wrote about earlier this week. In either case, it would have disrupted the flow of explaining those five draft prospects.

My overall goal with that article was to explain why I thought Paul Skenes was the best prospect in this draft group. As I said in the comments, the title of that article is a thought I had, and the article is 3200 words explaining my complex thought for the upcoming draft.

What about Jack Suwinski, though?

Photo of Suwinski above by David Hague, obviously from a home game with the City Connect jerseys, but it’s a great shot to encapsulate the player in action, when he’s not getting walked all the time.

In the top of the eighth inning tonight, Suwinski turned on a 102 MPH inside fastball to rip it foul against Justin Martinez, who was making his Major League debut. The pitch was well hit, but a difficult velocity and a difficult placement to do anything but foul off. Suwinski did indeed foul off the 2-1 pitch, evening the count. The followup pitch from the MLB rookie were a breaking pitch a few inches off the low and outside corner of the plate, which Suwinski easily spat upon. With a full count, two on, and an established dangerous hitter at the plate, Martinez yanked a 100 MPH fastball low, almost in the dirt, to walk Suwinski with two outs. Carlos Santana followed with a two RBI single on a 101 MPH fastball.

An established dangerous hitter. That’s what Suwinski has been lately, and arguably all year. He’s 14th in the majors this year in home runs, with 19. His 15.8% walk rate ranks fifth among 151 qualified players this year. Andrew McCutchen is sixth. McCutchen ranks ninth among those players in OBP with a .383 mark. Suwinski’s OBP (.365) is lower, due to his lower average (.236) from his struggles against left-handers. He still ranks top 25. At the plate, Suwinski has been exceptional. If he finds a way to improve against lefties, and there are some positive signs, he’s got that path to stardom I mentioned in the draft article.

One point I didn’t want to make in that massive draft article was that Suwinski might be the center fielder of the future, now.

I wrote very early in the season about how Suwinski displayed more traits of a center fielder than Bryan Reynolds. He has been the regular center fielder for most of the season. His UZR/150 this year is 4.3 and he’s been worth -2 defensive runs saved. You typically want multiple seasons of defensive metrics to get an evaluation on a player. Even if we add his 107 innings last year, he has a -1 DRS and a 12.6 UZR/150. That’s an improvement, but an overall sample size of 590. We don’t yet know if he’s a good center fielder, but he passes the eye test, and the metric test.

The most consistent thing about Suwinski has been improvement. Last summer, I featured him and cautioned against relegating him to a three true outcomes future. He might still look like he’s destined for Kyle Schwarber offensive seasons. I think if you could have put Schwarber in center field with Suwinski’s defense, you would have had a 3-4 WAR player. But he’s right now in his age 24 season, still improving, and I wouldn’t call him set on either side of the ball. The fact that he keeps improving and has the attitude to continue to get better is a sign that Suwinski shouldn’t really have a ceiling placed on him right now. He’s a 55 present day player, and has the potential to improve on either side of the ball.

I didn’t want to cloud the Paul Skenes article with the idea that Jack Suwinski might be able to develop further into the center fielder of the future after another year of “don’t put a ceiling on him” articles. That’s why I felt it was easier to mention Davis. I also didn’t want to get into my concerns about Davis as a catcher and where he might end up.

CATCHING, AT A GLANCE

There were two pitches back-to-back in the first batter that Henry Davis caught tonight which made me wince. The first was a pitch in the dirt by Dauri Moreta. The pitch bounced under the glove of Davis, hitting him directly in his exposed pinky as his hand was hanging free. The next pitch, he tried tucking his hand behind him, and missed the 2-2 offering to the backstop.

On the 3-2 pitch, Davis went back to leaving his right hand exposed, and made a nice grab on a tough slider from Moreta, which broke low and away toward the dirt on a swinging strike. Allowing the pitch to pass would have allowed a runner on. Leaving the hand exposed already showed its potential risks for a player whose main value in the game could plummet from a broken bone in his hand.

“The catching part seems to be an adjustment part for guys in professional baseball,” Pirates announcer Joe Block said on the broadcast as Davis slid his hand to protect it behind his leg while receiving a 2-0 pitch against the next batter.

As the at-bat and inning went on, Davis adjusted his technique. If we’re talking about improvements, go back and watch Davis adjusting his approach to find something comfortable that works for him, during his debut MLB inning. That ability to adjust on the fly is why I wouldn’t count him out as a catcher long-term. This inning was a sign of how that’s not going to be an overnight process, and will probably involve a complex position share. But it was the perfect inning to get him some experience that he can build upon in practice.