Pirates Prospects Daily: The Early Results From That 2021 Draft Strategy

I wouldn’t say there was a consensus number one prospect in the 2021 draft. What I would say is that there was no consensus at the time saying Henry Davis was the number one talent.

Prep shortstops Marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawlar were ranked higher, and both received $200,000 more than Davis at picks 4 and 6, respectively. Jack Leiter received the biggest bonus as the top college pitcher. His $7.9 million was $1.4 million more than Davis received. The Tigers even spent more on Jackson Jobe, a prep pitcher who they took third and gave $6.9 million.

I don’t like grading draft results by who made the majors first, but the present day lineup of those players is looking favorable for the Pirates.

Mayer is in Double-A in his age 20 season. He’s hitting .168/.245/.379 with a 20.7% strikeout rate and a 9.9% walk rate.

Lawlar is also in Double-A at the age of 20. He’s got a .240/.336/.442 line, a 23.6% strikeout rate, and a 10.7% walk rate.

I wouldn’t knock those results long-term. Neither one says the player is ready to move beyond Double-A, but they both have shown signs that you can’t write them off based on these numbers. Still, the Red Sox and Diamondbacks are hoping for an impact hitter in the big leagues one day. Henry Davis is in the majors in his age 23 season, looking like a guy who doesn’t have much to do to become an impact hitter. Can Mayer or Lawlar get to the same place in three years?

You would expect a college player to move quicker. Leiter was seen as an advanced arm, with all of the normal hype about how he could quickly move to the majors. He’s only pitched in Double-A the last two years, and has a walk rate in excess of 5 BB/9, or the 13-15% range. He’s dominant with his 30% strikeout rate this year, but his control is a major issue.

You don’t have the control issues with the younger prep pitcher, Jobe. He’s in his age 20 season, and has been out for most of this year. He made it to High-A at the end of his debut season last year.

If you could go back, with the information we have today, I think the decision to take Davis would be a slam dunk. That’s not even looking at the strategy from the middle rounds.

The Pirates saved about $2 million in slot money with Davis and had some additional savings in the 5-10 rounds. They added Anthony Solometo, Lonnie White Jr., Bubba Chandler, Owen Kellington, and Braylon Bishop with the savings. Had they taken one of the prep shortstops, they might have only lost Kellington or Bishop from this list. Had they gone with Leiter and his price, they wouldn’t have had money for Solometo, White Jr., and one of those smaller above-slot guys.

The standout from that group has been Solometo. He’s already in Double-A in his age 20 season, and through his first three starts is putting up first round results. Solometo has a 1.20 ERA in 15 innings, with a 31.6% strikeout rate and a 5.3% walk rate. Things might not continue playing out this way, but Solometo right now is looking like a better prospect than Leiter.

The development has been slower for the other four players. I wouldn’t count any one of them out, just as I wouldn’t count out the first rounders for the other teams. With the production from Davis and Solometo, the Pirates are already looking like they’re ahead with the 2021 draft results.

Pirates Notes

The Pirates lost the series against the Brewers with a 6-3 loss on Sunday.

**P2Live: Pirates Drop Series to Brewers With 6-3 Loss

Mitch Keller was named to the National League All-Star team.

**Mitch Keller Named to National League All-Star Team

Bryan Reynolds is back, which will be a good boost for the Pirates offense. Having him and Henry Davis in the lineup and in the outfield will provide some stability that this team hasn’t seen for most of the 2023 season.

**Pirates Activate Bryan Reynolds; Place Ji-Hwan Bae on the Injured List

Mark Mathias was claimed off waivers by Seattle.

**Seattle Mariners Claim Infielder Mark Mathias