Paul Skenes has been nominated for two awards. The Pittsburgh Pirates right-handed pitcher was named a finalist for the National League Rookie of the Year award, which was expected. He was also named a finalist for the NL Cy Young Award.
A year after being taken first overall in the MLB draft, Skenes put up a 1.96 ERA in 133 innings, with a 170:32 K/BB ratio. He ended up starting the All-Star Game, and pitched a scoreless inning. Those results were phenomenal for a rookie, giving Skenes legitimate placement in the Cy Young race.
The other two finalists for the NL’s best pitcher were Chris Sale of the Braves and Zack Wheeler with the Phillies. Sale had a 2.38 ERA in 177.2 innings, with a 225:39 K/BB ratio. Wheeler was a step below, with a 2.57 ERA in 200 innings. Out of all NL pitchers with 130+ innings, Skenes ranked first in strikeout rate and ERA.
Sale is likely to win the Cy Young award, due to having more innings and 18 wins to 11 from Skenes.
Skenes looks like he should be the favorite for the Rookie of the Year race. He’s going up against two hitters, Jackson Merrill of the Padres and Jackson Chourio of the Brewers. Of the two, Merrill looks like he will give Skenes the most competition. He hit for a .292/.326/.500 line in 593 plate appearances, with 24 homers and 16 stolen bases.
The 5.3 fWAR from Merrill is higher than the 4.3 from Skenes. Merrill gets some credit for playing an extra month. His WAR per five games is lower than Skenes put up per start. Hitters often get an advantage in this award due to daily playing time. As a Cy Young finalist, it would be difficult to imagine Skenes losing the Rookie of the Year race.
If Skenes finishes top two in the Rookie of the Year voting — which seems near-guaranteed — he would get a full year of service time for his 2024 season, despite the Pirates calling him up on May 11th. The Pirates wouldn’t get a draft pick for compensation, due to not calling him up on Opening Day. This would make Skenes a free agent following the 2029 season.
The Rookie of the Year award will be announced on Monday, November 18th. The Cy Young Award will be announced two days later on Wednesday, November 20th.
