“SRAMANA, sramana. This is closely allied to the word shaman, and a shaman is the holy man in a culture that is still hunting, it isn’t settled, it isn’t agrarian. There is a very strong and important difference between a shaman and a priest. A priest receives his ordination from his superiors. He receives something from a tradition which is handed down.
A shaman doesn’t. He receives his enlightenment by going off into the forest by himself to be completely alone. In other words, a shaman is a man who has undergone solitariness. He has gone away into the forest to find out who he really is, because it’s very difficult to find that out while you’re with other people, and the reason is that other people are busy all the time telling you who you are, in many many ways, by the laws they impose on you, by the behavior ruts they set on you, by the things they tell you, by the fact that they always call you by your name, and by the fact that when you live among people you have to be in a state of ceaseless chatter.
But if you want to find out who you are before your father and mother conceived you, who you really are, you almost have to go off by yourself. You go into the forest, and stop talking, and even stop thinking words, and be absolutely alone, and listen to the great silences.”
-Alan Watts
*****
In ten days, the Pittsburgh Pirates will draft a player who has been the greatest player in his local area.
That local area might be his high school. It might be a larger area surrounding a major college program. Whatever that place of origin, the draftee will enter pro ball and will no longer be the clear cut best player on the field. While you expect the 1-1 pick to be the best, the challenge that pick will face in pro ball will be unlike any he’s faced prior.
Eventually, every draft pick and every prospect who goes through minor league baseball ends up alone in a great silence, wondering if they can get to that lofty draft grade. This is because we don’t fully appreciate the vast gap between present day value and the potential grades that we had out like candy on draft day.
The current prospect scene doesn’t fully reflect my view of how to grade prospects. We should be looking at Present Grades and Future Grades. Collectively. The best way to describe the difference would be to look at Henry Davis.
Davis had a Present Grade of 40+ entering the year. If I had a chart at the time of all of the players in the system, you could easily argue that he was one of the best 26 players who should have gone north with the team. The thing is that his potential value is much higher than 40. The Pirates used the early part of the year to give Davis catching experience, before moving him to right field and getting his bat to the big leagues. The bat is what drives his future value, and they’ve now got him in position to try and chase that value.
I say “chase”, because every player in the system has a gap between who they are and who they could be. We grade prospects based on the careers they could have — those numbers talked about on draft day — and then we sit around asking “Are they there yet?” with every home run and every Gold Glove play.
The chart below is not about baseball. It’s a display of Original Gravity and Final Gravity among beer styles. In the future, I’ll grade players in the system with a similar looking chart. The Red will reflect Present Grades. The Green will reflect Future Grades. I like this chart as an example of the idea, because it incorporates the idea of a sort of tiered system. That said, it also implies that American Light Lagers are number one. I can see an argument for a Cream Ale being top three, but I’d question these if they were rankings.
Pretend that chart has a line that shows when players are ready for the majors. Without setting this up in real life, a group of baseball players should have similar looking clusters as above. There should be a lot of players who technically can play in the majors. However, long-term potential comes into play.
Based on the chart above, you might be left with a decision to call up either a Helles Bock or a German Leichtbier. The Helles Bock is better right now, and projects to be way better in the future. The German Leichtbier is a present day decline you can live with, as you allow the Helles Bock to improve in the cellar. A note that the actual lines on this represent the starting point (green) and final gravity (red) for brewing these styles. Don’t read into these metaphors too much.
What I’m trying to say is the Pirates would be justified holding a Present Grade player back to allow him to build toward his Future Grade in the minors. However, there would be a point that every player hit where it would no longer be justified to continue that Future Grade development in the minors. That point would be individual for each player, but I’d say when a player gets to a 45-grade status, they should be in the majors, seeing if they can move higher.
Look at the Eisbock up there. Not only is there a high upside, but he looks ready for the majors. Of course, Eisbock is illegal to brew in America without a distilling license. The process involves freezing a double bock in subzero temperatures, forcing all of the beer’s water to freeze before the alcohol. After removing the ice, the liquid remaining is heavily concentrated, and more akin to hard liquor. The entire process is a form of distilling. Eisbock might be the best example of a top prospect being held back. They’ll make laws to regulate what teams can do with Eisbocks. But I digress.
On Wednesday, I wrote about how the Pirates are seeing the pains of part-time players playing too much.
In today’s column, I want to look at the position players on the 40-man roster, broken down by their Present Grades. This means we’re not dreaming about Future Potential and saying that Henry Davis could be an MVP in 2023. Instead, this look will try to get a realistic feel for the present day talent level of Davis and everyone on the Pirates — as well as where they could be heading.
The thing about these grades is that any player can turn on a 70-grade performance for a short period. Some players might do it in a game. Some might do it for a week. Some might have a 70-grade month. My focus will be on who can produce this over a year (2023 Pirates), who can produce in the second half of 2023 (Prorated Possibilities), and who can produce in 2024 and beyond (Future Potential).
80-GRADE: The Sure Hall of Famers
2023 Pirates: None.
Andrew McCutchen has a Hall of Fame career, but I’d put him as a 50-grade performer right now. This section in this article will look at where players are graded right now. I would say there are very few 80-grade players in the game in any given year. Shohei Ohtani is the best current example. If we use WAR as an example, the top five guys in the game in any given year are your 80-grades. They’re usually putting up 6.5 WAR or more in a year.
Prorated Possibilities: None.
I don’t see anyone in this organization who could be an 80-grade guy in the second half of 2023. That would be one of the best hitters in the game, and we haven’t seen anything close to this yet.
Future Potential: N/A
I don’t like projecting 80-grade outcomes. I’m going to let you dream about the 70-grade guys below.
70-GRADE: The Fan Favorites
2023 Pirates: None.
The Pirates lack a 70-grade position player this year. From a WAR standpoint, I think that’s best represented in the 5+ WAR range per year.
Prorated Possibilities: Bryan Reynolds
The guy who is most likely to put up this type of production — being among the best in the league, but not the best — is Bryan Reynolds. He’s not having a 70-grade season right now, though we have seen flashes that he’s capable of such performance.
Future Potential: Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Henry Davis
Reynolds is the only player who I could see adding prorated 70-grade potential for 2023. He’s also the most likely in future years. I wouldn’t expect that from Oneil Cruz in his return from a major injury. Still, if the Pirates get 50-grade or higher production from Cruz, it would be an upgrade over where they are now. I might be the rare person who gives Ke’Bryan Hayes a 70-grade future ceiling, but I also appreciate defense more than most outside the game. Runs saved are just as good as runs batted in. I also think Hayes can improve his bat, and I think we’re slowly seeing it. He’s already had a 3 WAR season. My prediction: We’ll see at least one 5+ WAR season by 2026. On that note, we can dream about the bat from Henry Davis taking him to 5+ WAR territory very soon. There is a scale involved with these projections that include defense. I’d place Davis here if he was put in right field and allowed to simply hit against MLB pitching. If you put him behind the plate, his focus will go toward catching, and his offense will suffer. I think the value from Davis will always come from the bat, and the path to a 70-grade season is going to be more likely with him in right field. I wouldn’t expect him to have this type of prorated pace in 2023, but I have a feeling Davis expects himself to be that type of player. We’re going to see if he can do it.
60-GRADE: The Long-Term Starters
2023 Pirates: Bryan Reynolds
This is where I’d safely project Bryan Reynolds for Present Day, as someone who could put up 4+ WAR in a season. In the second half, Reynolds can very easily give 60-grade production.
Prorated Possibilities: Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Henry Davis
We’re talking about two wins above replacement in the second half. That would be about the ceiling that I would expect from Oneil Cruz. That would be more likely if they put him at an easier position on the field. I think that Ke’Bryan Hayes is capable of this pace if his bat continues to progress and he continues lifting the ball off the ground. This is a more realistic dream for Henry Davis.
Future Potential: Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez
The only addition from the list above is Endy Rodriguez. This is the case where I think the Pirates could develop a catcher with all of the intangibles and defense that Austin Hedges provides, but with the bat to provide value on both sides of the game. Davis and Cruz make this list due to their bats. Hayes and Rodriguez make this list due to their ability to hit with their defense at difficult positions.
55-GRADE: Contending Starters
2023 Pirates: Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes
It might be generous to give Cruz this designation so soon, but I’m going with that due to the respect his bat should command. I’ve got Hayes at this level due to the defense. Anyone who can post a 3+ WAR in a given year should be seen as a 55-grade guy. Hayes did that in 2022, though it was defense fueled, so it won’t get the same respect. He’s always going to be under appreciated for saving runs instead of knocking them in. When he starts doing the latter, he’ll move up to the higher grades. This is a safe spot for him now. If you’re thinking about Jared Triolo with the defensive talk, I’ll get to him in that large 45 group below.
Prorated Possibilities: Henry Davis, Jack Suwinski, Nick Gonzales
Jack Suwinski doesn’t profile as a starter due to his platoon splits. His ability to do damage against right-handers gives him starter value — even if his time against lefties depletes that value. What we’ve seen in the first half is 55-grade ceiling performance, held back by his struggles against left-handers. He could still give that performance, and might be more likely if he moves into a platoon role. This seems like a realistic expectation for Davis to pick up a win and a half down the stretch in his current role. I might be high on Gonzales with his breaking pitch issues, but I think he will help to stabilize the middle infield and will quickly adapt with his bat.
Future Possibilities: Henry Davis, Jack Suwinski, Nick Gonzales, Liover Peguero, Endy Rodriguez
Davis is going to soar past this level if he’s a bat-first right fielder. This is a more realistic ceiling for his total value as a catcher. Likewise, I think Rodriguez has a slightly higher ceiling than this, but this would be a safer place to project him as a catcher. I see him as a catcher for a contender in his career. Liover Peguero is the highest upside guy who isn’t in the majors right now. His bat at second base would profile here in future years. In 2023, he might join the 45-grade group.
50-GRADE: Starters
2023 Pirates: Carlos Santana, Andrew McCutchen, Jack Suwinski, Austin Hedges
None of these guys are starters who you would find as regulars on a contending roster. Some of them don’t really belong in this group, but it’s easier to explain if I put them here. Carlos Santana has boosted the infield defense, while providing some timely hits. He’s been worth less than a win so far, but for this individual team with a hole at first base, his production has been worth wins over previous seasons. Andrew McCutchen would probably fit on a contender in his current designated hitter role, but there’s no way he’s going anywhere — nor should he go anywhere, so don’t suggest any trade ideas. The valuable thing about these veterans is that there are a lot of games where they can still dial in 60, 70, or 80 grade performances. Jack Suwinski isn’t an everyday player with his issues against lefties, but he would still get a good amount of time with any team due to his massive success against right-handers. If we’re considering the bar to be 2 WAR for this group, then Suwinski is definitely in. Austin Hedges will not have 2 WAR, nor will he get the prorated amount. That said, the Pirates like the intangible value he provides to the pitching staff, so we’ll include him here.
Prorated Possibilities: Henry Davis, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo, Connor Joe
You could argue that Davis is already here, and that Gonzales and Triolo can get here as 2 WAR starters. That would be 1 WAR in the second half. That’s what Connor Joe has in the first half. I’ll get to this below.
Future Possibilities: Henry Davis, Nick Gonzales, Liover Peguero, Endy Rodriguez, Jared Triolo
At the least, we’re starting to see how the Pirates are trending. The 2023 group has asterisks that make them 50-grade value guys in a limited capacity. This group of future prospects can be 50-grade starters or higher, without platoons or relying on intangible value.
45+ GRADE: Rising Starters
2023 Pirates: Henry Davis, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo
Now we get to that massive group of 45-grade players, otherwise known as “depth”. The Pirates were celebrated for how much depth they collected in their farm system, while lacking impact talent at the top. Henry Davis and Nick Gonzales are among the potential impact guys. As such, we are seeing them emerge quickly with daily playing time, while responding well to that pressure. The Pirates should absolutely treat them like 50-grade guys and play them daily. I tend to lower expectations, which is why I have this 45-Rising class for unproven guys who stand out beyond the depth group.
Davis might be conservative for this. Jared Triolo might be a bit aggressive. His defense at third base has been outstanding, with no step down from Ke’Bryan Hayes. I do have questions about Triolo’s bat in the long-term. I think the profiles will be similar — value fueled by elite defense, but not as much offense as you’d want. The Pirates can move Triolo to another position and see if his bat can easier stick in the majors at another spot. Or, see if he can upgrade the defense at another challenging position. He can play shortstop and center field, where the Pirates have needs. One thing to consider about defense is that every player has a limited bandwidth capacity on game day. If they’re spending a lot of time focusing on one side of the ball, it will decrease their effectiveness on the other side. The more Jared Triolo is tested with difficult plays in the majors, the more difficult it will be for him to stay locked in at the plate. That’s the thing we don’t appreciate about defensive starters in the long-term. Triolo’s defense is ready for the majors, but his bat will need to adjust long-term.
Future Possibilities: Endy Rodriguez, Liover Peguero
If any of these two make the majors this year, I think they’ll quickly enter this 45+ territory. Endy Rodriguez will almost certainly debut this year. Liover Peguero could arrive with continued hitting in the minors.
45 GRADE: The Starting Depth
2023 Pirates: Connor Joe, Ji-Man Choi, Endy Rodriguez, Liover Peguero
I don’t like grading prospects higher than 45 when they’re entering the majors. It’s a bit of a conservative look, where they’re not really starters yet, but they’re more than bench players. The Pirates have seen a lot of these types of players, mixed with more veteran options. I think that you could argue Carlos Santana and Austin Hedges probably belong closer to this group, but get a boost on this team due to the lack of talent at their positions. The guys with this grade can start, but you want an upgrade over them. Ji-Man Choi fits that same bill when he returns.
Connor Joe has been a great addition to the team from a depth standpoint. You could almost put him in the 45+ group with his already 1 WAR in the first half. Ideally, Joe works the other half of the platoon with Jack Suwinski, while spelling Choi and Santana at first base. That scenario would probably upgrade all of these 45-grade guys. Instead, the Pirates have needed Joe for the fifth most plate appearances this year, tied with Suwinski.
I’m including Endy Rodriguez and Liover Peguero in this group. I think Endy is in this category now, but similar value to Hedges, who has the veteran ability and the familiarity with the pitchers. Peguero is probably below this grade now, but could move to this point by the end of the year. At this point, crushing Altoona puts him closer to the 40-grade guys.
Prorated Possibilities: Josh Palacios, Tucupita Marcano
I like the flashes that Josh Palacios has shown, both with his glove and at the plate in some key moments. Right now, he’s a strong bench outfielder, with the chance to be a guy you could start once or twice a week. Tucupita Marcano has stepped up with improved defense up the middle for the Pirates, but hasn’t added much with the bat.
Future Possibilities: Travis Swaggerty, Cal Mitchell, Canaan Smith-Njigba
Travis Swaggerty has had a rough year on a personal level, and with injuries. He’s been limited to 74 at-bats, and probably won’t be an option this year. If he is, I doubt it would be in the 45 role or higher. The Pirates have Cal Mitchell and Canaan Smith-Njigba in Triple-A for more immediate depth. Both have shown strides with their development, and could emerge as a bench option who you could start.
40-GRADE: Bench Players
2023 Pirates: Ji Hwan Bae, Rodolfo Castro, Josh Palacios, Tucupita Marcano, Jason Delay
Ji Hwan Bae has the talent to be in the 45 group. He started the year in the 45+ group, but has been moving down. As I wrote the other day, I don’t think he’s a regular player, and I think he’s suffering from being used too often. His aggregate first half numbers point to a 40-grade player. I think he’s closer to 45-grade, and could end up with that type of value in a reduced role.
Rodolfo Castro, Josh Palacios, and Tucupita Marcano are all in that fringe range between 40 and 45. They’ve all been given a shot to be 45 guys, and to move higher. None of them have moved into the 45+ territory in their starting opportunities. They haven’t exactly moved down to full 40-grade. Castro and Marcano are moving down from being treated like 45-grade guys, after the additions of Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo in the infield. Palacios, you could argue, is moving up from being treated like a 35-grade guy in the minors. He’s shown a few big plays, but has yet to move up beyond this role.
Future Possibilities: Alika Williams
Ideally, you upgrade the MLB team from the top down. Adding guys who can jump in at the 45 level and go higher should be the goal. This grade is where that bridge from the minors to the majors gets muddied.
Tucupita Marcano, for example, is trending down. He has a .240/.293/.390 line, and while he’s had the best shortstop defense for an injury filled team, his defense isn’t great. He’s been replacement level. The Pirates added Alika Williams, who grades better than Marcano defensively up the middle. Williams has questions with the bat, which he’s been working through. He’s showing some promise in that regard. At best, the trade off here is that Williams becomes what you hoped for from Marcano — a guy who can be more than a replacement level bench player.
In terms of that middle infield upgrade, it would come when Liover Peguero is ready. That’s when the Pirates could add a Davis/Gonzales/Triolo equivalent. Peguero is crushing the ball in Altoona. The Pirates have shown they will promote from Altoona. At this stage, he’d be an upgrade over the lowest guys on the roster, and these guys have their spots at risk with the players returning from injury.
