Over the last week, we’ve been conducting a lengthy Roundtable to discuss the Pittsburgh Pirates’ number one overall pick in the upcoming MLB draft. This Roundtable was more true to the name, and different than previous versions we’ve done. The lineup was as follows:
Tim Williams – Moderator
John Dreker – Pirates Prospects Draft Expert
Anthony Murphy – System Depth Perspective
Wilbur Miller – System Needs Perspective
Jeff Reed – Resident Fan Expert
The entire email chain ended up at close to 4,000 words. Rather than one massive article breaking down the draft, this actually splits up into four equal articles. We’ll have one per day through Friday, leading into the draft weekend. Today, we start with a look at LSU outfielder Dylan Crews.
TIM WILLIAMS: What is the argument for Dylan Crews first overall?
John, start us off with the current scouting report on Crews, and his rumored bonus demands.
JOHN DREKER: Crews is the top college hitter in this draft, with the ability to get on base at a high level, which he has proven in a major college conference during all three seasons at LSU. He has plate patience, great contact skills and the ability to use the entire field. He doesn’t have the best power potential in the class, but he’s not far from the top either. His speed is a tool, mostly on defense, where he’s going to stick in center field. He’s very polished, and shouldn’t need much minor league time. He’s considered by most to be the top player among a group of five elite prospects in this class.
The rumors on his bonus demands are that he won’t take any type of discount, so that might lead the Pirates to go elsewhere. That first slot is valued at $9,721,000, which is nearly $900,000 more than last year’s value.
TIM: Anthony, where would he rank in the system?
ANTHONY MURPHY: Not only would Crews rank as the best prospect in the Pirates’ system, he would instantly rank among the best in all of baseball. When it comes to the position, he gives the Pirates a legitimate center field prospect, something that they lack within the system, especially in the upper levels. The Pirates have some intriguing names in the lower levels when it comes to outfield, but none with the type of ceiling/floor combination that Crews has.
His hit tool may immediately be the best in the system, and that’s even considering Termarr Johnson, who was highly regarded in that sense when he was drafted. While he may not have the power that Henry Davis has, he would still have some of the most pop in his bat compared to the rest of the system.
TIM: Wilbur, how soon do you think Crews could realistically upgrade the Pirates outfield?
WILBUR MILLER: Crews would upgrade the Pirates’ outfield . . . yesterday. Their outfield is 18th in MLB in fWAR, and a lot of that is Bryan Reynolds and Connor Joe’s fluke April. Joe and Ji Hwan Bae have been major liabilities the last month. With Reynolds out, the best outfielder has been Josh Palacios, which speaks volumes.
In my view, the need for development on the part of highly accomplished, major college program draftees is seriously overstated in some quarters, and I could make a long list of players in situations similar to Crews’ that shows quite a few teams agree. If Crews is the guy he’s reputed to be, some brief acclimation time in AA/AAA should be enough. He might scuffle in the majors for a while, but the bar for upgrading this outfield is very, very low.
The question of how quickly Crews could upgrade the outfield really hinges on the front office. Their undying commitment to service time manipulation means there’s no chance of Crews reaching Pittsburgh before mid-2024. Even beyond that it’s dubious. This administration has no record of fast-tracking prospects. It’s possible the promotions of Henry Davis and Nick Gonzales — no doubt spurred by the humiliating performance of the team’s offense for the last two months — signals a change. And they might conclude that Crews is just different.
TIM: Jeff, why is Crews your pick at 1-1?
JEFF REED: Crews is the 1-1 pick to me, because he is the 1-1 player.
One of the reasons goes back to something Eric Longenhagen said in an interview with NS9, that Dylan Crews has always been a dude. He was a dude in high school, and he’s been a dude all three years at LSU. He has looked special since day one. I’ve also seen him grow into a hitter that’s become more disciplined and patient. There were times in 2022 where a front end college starter like Hunter Barco made him look foolish with offspeed and breaking pitches.
All that said, my net of players I’d honestly accept at 1-1 is probably around four to five prospects. The Pirates have a bonus pool size to not only get a special player at 1-1, but additionally mimic the potentially really special 2021 draft. This isn’t, “Go big, or go home”. The Pirates should simply go big.
Overall to me in the end, Crews is the 1-1. Again, he’s always been good, he’s continued to get better, and I don’t see a shift to pro ball suddenly stopping him in his tracks.
Check back tomorrow morning at PiratesProspects.com for part two, as we take a look at LSU right-handed pitcher Paul Skenes.
