Over the last week, we’ve been conducting a lengthy Roundtable to discuss the Pittsburgh Pirates’ number one overall pick in the upcoming MLB draft. This Roundtable was more true to the name, and different than previous versions we’ve done. The lineup was as follows:
Tim Williams – Moderator
John Dreker – Site Draft Expert
Anthony Murphy – System Depth View
Wilbur Miller – System Needs View
Jeff Reed – Resident Fan Expert
Yesterday, we posted part one of this discussion, as we looked at LSU outfielder Dylan Crews. Today, we look at his teammate, right-handed pitcher Paul Skenes.
TIM WILLIAMS: John, what is the argument for Paul Skenes first overall?
JOHN DREKER: Skenes has recently been put in the company of the best college pitchers going into the draft in recent memory, up there with names like Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole and David Price. He has the velocity, the pitch-mix, the big frame and the control you can dream on from a starter. There are people who believe he could go right to the majors and help out the Pirates this year. If you trust those scouts, then you’re getting an ace on the cusp of the majors. He certainly had the stats to back it up, while seeing some terrific teams after the typical early season layups. I don’t think the Pirates would put him in the majors right away, mostly due to his inning total this year already being 37 innings over last year, which was a huge jump over his 2021 total, when he saw very limited work. You’re not going to grab a potential ace, the push him to his limits at 21 years old. However, the Pirates will definitely have rotation spots available next year, so he could be in Pittsburgh by mid-season, less than a full year after being drafted.
TIM: Anthony, where would Skenes rank in the system, assuming he would stay in the minors long enough?
ANTHONY MURPHY: The Pirates have a lot of intriguing arms in the system, but all of them probably translate more towards being middle of the rotation type pitchers. Which is fine, as we’ve seen this year you can never have enough pitching. Skenes, however, would immediately elevate to the top as the best of the bunch, as he’s a potential front line starter.
Due to his already incredibly high ceiling, and upside for more, Skenes easily falls in as not only the best pitching prospect, but probably overall in the Pirates system.
TIM: Wilbur, what is a realistic timeline for Skenes to reach the majors, and when might he realistically reach the best in the system status Anthony mentioned?
WILBUR MILLER: Skenes’ timeline for reaching the majors, like Crews’, would be heavily influenced by one major caveat. He’d be subject to a front office that’s been cautious in promoting prospects and that allows financial considerations to drive baseball decisions. Skenes’ situation is a little different, though, since he’s a pitcher. He’ll be coming off his college workload, followed by a layoff for negotiations. Add to that, the Pirates’ pitching draftees under this regime have pitched very sparingly after signing. In fact, most haven’t pitched at all until the next year. And then there’s “super two,” so the earliest realistic arrival date for Skenes is mid-2024.
As for becoming the best in the system, that should be immediate. The most similar pitchers to Skenes in the system, ceiling-wise, are Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler. Both were drafted out of high school and came with questions about their command. Jones right now is answering those questions, while Chandler isn’t. Skenes doesn’t come with those questions and his stuff is probably a step up from theirs, too.
TIM: Jeff, you said they should go big with Crews. It seems this draft gives them the chance to go big with a generational hitter or pitcher. How much should their system need for pitching factor into the decision?
JEFF REED: I think there is a couple different ways to look at it from the perspective of the Pirates.
For starters (pun intended), there is the obvious caveat of a team can never have enough pitching. With the way their farm system is trending, they appear to be developing pitching at better rate than hitters. One could then say they should go Skenes as that is seeming to be their bread and butter, while at the same time they have a handful of post first round pitchers excelling. If you look at the draft pool, there is a very strong group of pitchers — especially prep pitchers — that could be had with their selections after day one.
Teams generally don’t, or shouldn’t, draft for need. With that said, I believe it would behoove the organization to bring in a hitter that is as polished as possible. We’re seeing it with Henry Davis now, where his bat looks as good as advertised. Only thing the Pirates needed to do was keep him healthy.
Truth be told, the Pirates development is still at a point where we can’t be too confident. We’re only just seeing their upper echelon prospects crack the majors. But judging by the the improvement of Jared Jones, Anthony Solometo, and even MLB Futures Game attendee JP Massey, I feel they should draft the best hitter. Acquisition of more hitters down the road will likely come from using pitcher overflow in trades.
Check back tomorrow morning at PiratesProspects.com for part three, as we look at the alternatives to Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes.
