Cal Mitchell is seeing better numbers in his return to the majors.
I spoke with Mitchell last month, one day before he was optioned to Indianapolis. At the time, he had a .193/.227/.325 line, with a 26.1% strikeout rate, and a 4.5% walk rate.
The numbers were low, but Mitchell was making solid contact. He only had 8.2% soft contact when he was sent down, along with a 26.2% line drive rate.
“Anybody would like to have higher numbers,” Mitchell told me before going down. “I know that I’m hitting the ball hard. I only have 80 at-bats, so those things will level out as more at-bats come as I continue to impact the ball like I want to.”
Mitchell went to Indianapolis, where he continued hitting the ball hard, resulting in a .375/.400/.479 line in 12 games. His walk rate was still low, but his strikeout rate was at a more acceptable level.
Since his return to the majors, the numbers have been better for Mitchell. After a home run last night, he has a .286/.333/.393 line in nine games since being called back up. He’s also shown better defensive work in the outfield. His walk rate is still low, but slightly up from his first run through the majors this year. His strikeout rate, following the trend from his time in Indianapolis, is down to an acceptable 20%.
Mitchell has enough raw power for 20+ home run potential. While he’s actually hitting this time around, he’s not hitting for a lot of power. As I wrote earlier this week, the Pirates are filled with a lot of players who are showing power and nothing else. Mitchell was one of those players.
Prior to being sent down, the only positive for Mitchell was that he was hitting the ball hard. Since coming back up, the positive is that he’s hitting the ball and getting on base. That’s a much better foundation, and the addition of power would take that production from the bench to the starting lineup.
These are small sample sizes, though, and they don’t necessarily tell the entire story. A big issue for Mitchell so far is that his launch angle is more often negative, leading to a lot of ground balls. Since returning, he has a 54.5% ground ball rate.
Mitchell’s average launch angle this year is 7 degrees. The average launch angle for a line drive is 10-25 degrees. A fly ball is higher.
Since his return to the majors, Mitchell has four balls in play with a line drive launch angle, and four more with a fly ball angle. You could add those numbers together and it would fall short of the nine balls in play with a negative launch angle.
The difference? Mitchell went 4-for-8 on the balls in the air, and 0-for-9 on the balls driven into the ground.
The home run he hit last night had a launch angle of 22 degrees, and an exit velocity of 105 MPH. It was one of three “barrels” that Mitchell had this season in the big leagues.
Mitchell has 20 batted balls of 99.6 MPH or higher this year. Nine of those have a launch angle greater than 10. Five have negative launch angles.
On the season, Mitchell works best when he’s hitting the ball in the line drive range between 10 and 25 degrees. He’s 12-for-20 this year on such hits.
The common trend with Mitchell is that he needs to get the ball in the air more often. His triple-slash line looks better, but the launch angle has been down since his return, with a lower average exit velocity.
Mitchell has the chance to hit and hit for power in the majors, but it seems he may need an adjustment to his swing to maximize that potential.
THIS WEEKEND ON PIRATES PROSPECTS
Williams: Five Pirates Who Could Be Trade Targets
Prospect Roundtable: Where Does Termarr Johnson Rank in the Pirates System?
Cal Mitchell’s Home Run Highlights a Problem This Season
Aaron Shackelford: Reverse Splits Key To Power Surge In Altoona
