Prospect Roundtable: Pirates Who Are Trending Up in the Rankings

Two months of the minor league season are in the books. This week for Prospect Roundtable, I asked everyone to look at what has happened so far this year, and identify one player moving up in their rankings, and one player moving down.

Here, we will take a look at the players trending up.

JOHN DREKER: Blake Sabol, OF/C

Blake Sabol has recently moved up in my rankings. I wasn’t buying in on his offense because of an initial first impression back with Morgantown. I wasn’t a big fan of his swing and pitch selection, and he was getting burnt on the same pitches. I also wasn’t impressed with the defense either. I didn’t see much from him at the plate last year, even though he clearly had a nice season in somewhat limited play. Being on Greensboro for most of the year took away chances to see him. One of the big problems was that catching seems like an unlikely future position for him, but now he looks like the bat can play anywhere, so I’m not as concerned with defensive value. He’s got athleticism, so there are some choices as to where he can play. More importantly, his approach at the plate now is better than it was during my initial impressions. He’s improved his strikeout rate, which was too high for a guy who doesn’t have big power, going from 29.1% last year, to 21.2% this year. That’s while putting up a .919 OPS that ranks fifth in the Eastern League. If you can hit like that over a two-month stretch in Double-A, you’ve got good odds of at least making it to the majors.

WILBUR MILLER: Jack Suwinski, OF

Matt Gorski and Travis Swaggerty are the low-hanging fruit here, but I’m going with Jack Suwinski, who’s going to be losing prospect status shortly. He wasn’t under the radar, but the scouting reports on him when the Pirates traded for him characterized him as a power-only type of prospect. When the power fell off sharply after the trade last year, that seemed a real concern. This year the power has rebounded and he’s made the jump from Double-A to the majors. The slash line stats aren’t overwhelming, but they’re good enough for a 103 OPS+, making him a slightly above-average hitter. As we’ve discussed here, Suwinski looks better in the analytical stats than the traditional ones. It looks now like he’s climbing out of the BABIP quicksand, as he’s up to .260, but that’s still on the low side.

ANTHONY MURPHY: Kyle Nicolas, RHP

Of the players on my original top-30 list, I think Kyle Nicolas would be moving up the list the furthest right now. Mike Burrows would probably make the most significant jump towards the top five, but after seeing Nicolas play, he is definitely the guy making the biggest jump. I’ve written before about how he attacks players two different ways and at two different eye levels, which has really helped keep batters guessing. He left his last start with an injury, and was put on the 7-day IL, so hopefully it isn’t too serious, and he can get back on the mound. The ERA this year has been inflated from two bad outings, but watching him pitch you can see just how good his stuff really is.

RYAN PALENCER: Cody Bolton

While, he was certainly a prospect coming into the season, Cody Bolton was a bit of a forgotten man by some based on injuries. The plan for Bolton in Indianapolis has been very gentle most of the season to ease him back in. However, Bolton might be turning a corner now. The stuff has played all season. Bolton has struck out 41 in 32.1 innings, while posting just a 1.27 WHIP. Last time out, he saw a season high five innings and 91 pitches. Previously, he had not gone more than four. Bolton is still very raw, having worked just north of 200 innings in his career, but if he can continue to show that longevity, we might get a look at him in Pittsburgh this year.

TIM WILLIAMS: Mike Burrows

I’m going to stick to the top of the rankings, because I think Mike Burrows has made a significant jump. Burrows was our number nine prospect coming into the year, and averaged as the number 12 prospect in the system. That was largely off of a 2.20 ERA and a high strikeout rate in 49 innings in High-A last year. Burrows missed some time with an injury, limiting his workload. He has almost matched that inning total this year, with 45.2 innings in Double-A. That comes with a 2.36 ERA, a slight drop in a still ridiculous strikeout rate, and a slight drop in walks. He already had a fastball/curveball combination that both feature high spin. This year he has been adding a changeup, which has gotten strong results. The three pitches all flash plus, and Burrows goes after hitters aggressively with that stuff. At this point, he’s a top five prospect for me, even with Roansy Contreras in the system. I’d put Burrows slightly ahead of Quinn Priester right now, and behind Contreras. I think Pirates fans should be watching him in the same way they were watching and waiting on Contreras this year.