Prospect Roundtable: Pirates Who Are Trending Down in the Rankings

Two months of the minor league season are in the books. This week for Prospect Roundtable, I asked everyone to look at what has happened so far this year, and identify one player moving up in their rankings, and one player moving down.

Here, we will take a look at the players trending down.

JOHN DREKER: Carmen Mlodzinski

Carmen Mlodzinski is a player moving down in my rankings. I tried to stick with top 30 players here and I had him ranked high coming into the season (ninth in the system). It’s not just that the results haven’t been there in most of his outings, it’s also the injury concern, with him missing time last year and briefly this year, which has led to him pitching five innings just once this season. He has a high effort delivery, which doesn’t alleviate any of those concerns, but it also makes me think relief might be in his future. He also has a .271 BAA in a year where the Eastern League as a whole is putting up a .236 average, and that’s with his Altoona teammates leading the league by 14 points in BAA over the second place team. There’s no denying that the stuff is there. He has good velocity, a nice pitch mix and he throws strikes, even if he only have average command. My concern is him making it as a starter, which is where he would need to be to get ranked that high in this strong system.

WILBUR MILLER: Jared Triolo

With a big season last year at Greensboro, Jared Triolo seemed like a breakout prospect. He’d already shown major-league caliber defense at third – he won the minor league gold glove – and is perfectly playable at short. Last year his bat came around strongly, as he hit .304/.369/.480. It wasn’t the Greensboro ballpark, either, as he hit much better on the road, including eight of his 15 home runs. This year, Triolo is mostly the same player he was, but the power has completely disappeared. His ISO is an anemic .039, with no homers. That’s not going to work for a third baseman. Triolo’s bat speed was always a concern, as his power is mostly a product of strength. It’s possible that’s not working in Double-A. Of course, he could turn it around; last year he improved steadily after a so-so early season. Hopefully he’ll follow the same path this year.

ANTHONY MURPHY: Carmen Mlodzinski

Right now, for me it must be Carmen Mlodzinski. Even going back to Greensboro last year it’s been tough to get a good fix on him as to what he projects to be at the next level. Whether it be inconsistency on the mound, or even staying healthy, Mlodzinski looked like he was trending the wrong direction. They tried something new with him on Sunday as Altoona used an opener in front of him, and he pitched well in that role, so we will have to see if that helps him build back to his original ranking.

RYAN PALENCER: Canaan Smith-Njigba

There are a couple of higher profile candidates in Indianapolis with some holes that have led to some questions. Ultimately, the choice I decided on is Canaan Smith-Njigba. His career hitting of left-handed pitching has seen some ups and downs. In the last week, he’s raised his average against lefties by 20 points. However, I don’t see his ability to hit lefties well enough to be much more than a platoon outfielder in the long run. His strikeout rate jumps 10 percent against lefties. He’s also walked just four times, which is a strength for him against righties. Smith-Njigba plays the game hard and the right way, but I just don’t see him as an everyday outfielder based on the aforementioned split struggles.

TIM WILLIAMS: Carmen Mlodzinski

I haven’t seen Mlodzinski pitch a lot, but the numbers don’t match the higher grades he got coming into the year. He has a 4.82 ERA in Altoona so far in 37.1 innings, with some control issues hurting him. He doesn’t grade as having a plus pitch, but does have the chance for several average pitches, along with average command. I felt he was ranked higher, and personally ranked him higher, due to his floor. He has a shot at making it as a back of the rotation starter, but probably won’t be one of the top guys in Pittsburgh’s future rotation. He just pitched long-relief in his last outing, which could work better for him and his stuff. The higher floor could keep him inside the top 30, but it’s difficult to imagine Mlodzinski as more than a 40+ future value guy right now, which wouldn’t be just outside of the top ten in the system.