The Pittsburgh Pirates made the right pick at number one overall in last year’s draft.
A lot can happen between now and the remainder of the careers of the players picked last year. At the moment, the most optimistic view you can take is that the Pirates drafted the modern-day version of Nolan Ryan when they took Paul Skenes.
The comparison to Ryan is easy to make after yesterday’s start. Skenes threw seven no-hit innings against the Milwaukee Brewers, striking out 11. It was the second time a pitcher has thrown two starts of 6+ no-hit innings with double-digit strikeouts. The other pitcher was Ryan.
Skenes has a 1.90 ERA in 66.1 innings through his first 11 starts in the majors, along with 89 strikeouts and 13 walks. He is living up to last year’s draft hype of a generational pitcher. When I talk about that draft hype, there was certainly a lot of hype from me surrounding the pick.
Recapping the 2023 First Round
The Pirates had the first overall pick last year, with no real consensus at the time over who they should pick. At the top was the choice between Skenes and his LSU teammate Dylan Crews. Proponents for Crews wanted the “safer” option of an everyday hitter, free of the injury risk from pitchers.
Today, Crews is in Triple-A with a .253/.306/.407 line in his first 98 plate appearances.
There was talk that other players could have gone first overall in a normal year, highlighting college hitter Wyatt Langford, and prep hitters Max Clark and Walker Jenkins.
Langford looks the best of that group, with a .266/.329/.402 line in 283 plate appearances at the Major League level this year. Clark and Jenkins are both in Single-A, with a .785 and .738 OPS, respectively.
All four of these hitters, from Crews to Jenkins, can develop into their projections one day. But take a moment to appreciate that Paul Skenes has already arrived. The Pirates aren’t waiting on future promise with their pick. They’re watching the future right now.
There are 130 pitchers in the majors this year with 60+ innings. Skenes ranks second in ERA, fifth in FIP, and first with a 34.9% strikeout rate. In his rookie season, he’s already looking like one of the best pitchers in the game.
There was no doubt in my mind that Skenes was the real deal. I wrote a trilogy of “Air Jordan” themed columns, starting with my pre-draft column saying The Pirates Can’t Pass on the Chance to Draft Paul Skenes.
After the pick, I wrote a column called “Dear Nike…” where I highlighted why Skenes was the type of player you bet on: “Aside from the stuff, he’s incredibly smart, driven, and always looking to learn more and improve himself.”
The third column highlighted his Major League attitude, which fans can see every time he takes the mound with the focus, intensity, and overall confident composure. Nothing really knocks Skenes off his game.
It’s rare for a team to be able to draft a Major League ready player — both in stuff and mentality — even with the first overall pick. The Pirates made the right move, getting a pitcher of the quality that they never could have gotten through any other avenue.
They drafted perhaps the best pitcher the game will see over the next two decades.
Pulling Skenes
There was some criticism over pulling Skenes last night with 99 pitches and an active no-hitter in a one run game.
I personally didn’t mind the move.
For one, if you can’t turn over a 1-0 lead to the late inning guys — even without David Bednar active — then this isn’t really a contending team. Sure, Colin Holderman allowed a hit immediately, but he also pitched a scoreless frame, continuing his sub-2.00 ERA season.
There’s also the long-term for Skenes to consider. He’s going to set a career-high in innings this year, and already had a few at-bats and innings that reached stress territory, with 10-pitch at-bats and 20+ pitch innings.
Holderman got the hold. Aroldis Chapman got the save. And one day, Skenes will get a complete game no-hitter. Perhaps multiple in his career.
Cohesiveness in the Rotation
It’s almost unfair to other pitchers on this team to have to pitch in the same rotation as Skenes. He sets the expectation way too high for what a pitcher should be doing.
For example, out of that list of 60+ inning pitchers I mentioned earlier, Mitch Keller ranks 45th with a 3.40 ERA, and 40th with a 3.65 FIP. Keller is among the top third of pitchers in the game, and it feels like there are miles between him and Skenes.
The same could be said for fellow rookie phenom Jared Jones. He ranks 58th in ERA at 3.56, and 56th in FIP at 3.75. These are more grounded results when setting your expectation for a rookie pitcher. The trio of Skenes, Keller, and Jones gives the Pirates three above-average starters who are probably better described as all being in the top third of pitchers in the game.
I’ve seen Pirates fans commenting on the possibility of trading from this rotation, and I think that would be foolish.
Since Skenes has arrived, there has been a sort of cohesiveness among that trio of starters. There’s the friendship between Skenes and Jones, which dates back to their high school days. There’s also the boost that Keller has received, probably from no longer being the only internally developed pitcher the team can count upon.
After Keller’s pre-season extension, the trio is together with the Pirates through the 2028 season.
There’s more talent on the way.
Bubba Chandler is the top prospect in the system now, and only Skenes has more upside in this system. Chandler will pitch in the MLB Future’s Game this weekend, ahead of Skenes pitching in the All-Star Game. One day, they could be leading the Pirates rotation, with Jones and Keller providing the strongest 3/4 duo in the game.
As for that number five spot, there are plenty of candidates there. Braxton Ashcraft has stepped up with a mid-to-upper 90s fastball and plus breaking stuff. He’s on the doorstep to the majors in Triple-A. Thomas Harrington is looking like a guy who can just pitch, lacking the elite fastball of the other pitchers mentioned above, but having enough quality pitches and enough smarts that he could be a Keller-type starter.
Beyond those upper-level guys, there are a few lefties who stand out in the system, led by Hunter Barco in Greensboro, Anthony Solometo in Altoona, and Michael Kennedy in Bradenton. All three could start in the majors for a contending rotation one day.
The 2023 draft brought in more than just Skenes. Patrick Reilly, taken in the fifth round out of Vanderbilt, leads the system in strikeouts out of Greensboro. Carlson Reed, taken in the fourth round out of West Virginia, has shown promise making the move to the rotation in Bradenton. Khristian Curtis, a 12th round over-slot pick out of Arizona State, has mid-to-upper 90s velocity and a six pitch mix, despite a lack of pitching experience from the college ranks. Zander Mueth, taken 67th overall out of the prep ranks, is the highlight of the rest of the draft, currently on a nice run in the FCL.
A year ago, Mike Burrows was seen as one of the future pieces of this rotation. Today, even following a great rehab outing, you could see how he might have trouble cracking the future group.
The Pirates have the makings of the best future rotation in baseball.
There will come a time when they will need to trade an established, quality MLB starting pitcher, simply because they will have too many options.
We’re not there yet. This is only the beginning.
This Year’s Draft
The Pirates won’t get a Skenes-type player in this year’s draft. They could get a guy who grades as above-average in the majors one day. That player could be a hitter, helping to balance the depth in the system.
I’ll be previewing the 2024 first round in my column on the site later today, giving my preferences for the ninth overall pick.
Pirates Prospect Watch
Mike Burrows pitched four innings in his latest rehab start. Zander Mueth made another start with 5 innings and no more than one earned run. Po-Yu Chen and Derek Diamond also added to the quality pitching with strong starts of their own. Read about all of Thursday’s action in the latest Pirates Prospect Watch.
Pirates Prospect Watch: Mike Burrows Has His Best Rehab Start Yet
