The month of July could bring a lot of changes to the Pittsburgh Pirates’ minor league system.
This is the time of year when the best performing players start to get tested with a promotion to a higher level. The MLB draft will see the Pirates picking ninth overall on July 14th, adding new talent to their system. The trade deadline could either add or subtract to the system depth, depending on which direction the Pirates take.
My top 50 prospect rankings this year have been focused on tiered rankings, aimed to show the depth of the Pirates’ system. I’ve also been incorporating a Current Value ranking, aimed at showing where a player is today, and their likely path to the big leagues. These rankings will likely change over the next month, but version 3.0 of the 2024 rankings shows where the system sits at mid-season.
The Current Value System
Most prospect rankings are based on a Future Value, which is the highest likely rating a player can reach in his professional career. This alone can be misleading, as some players might not reach their Future Value until after a few seasons in the majors.
I’ve been using a Current Value system to better project the future development of prospects, basing the rankings off the Future Value 20-80 scale. The Current Value system starts at 10, for athletes without a lot of experience in pro ball, all the way up to a 60-grade for the best players in the Majors.
The Current Value scale is broke down as follows:
- 10 – Pure athletes with very little baseball experience, starting their careers in rookie ball.
- 15 – Players who can perform well at the rookie levels, with regular playing time.
- 20 – The talent needed to play regularly in A-ball, at either level. High-A is usually a stronger indicator of this value.
- 25 – Double-A talent.
- 30 – The bottom half of Triple-A talent.
- 35 – The top half of Triple-A talent, and where the “Quad-A” label begins.
- 40 – The replacement level players at the MLB level.
- 45 – MLB bench/bullpen options who can occasionally start, and provide long-term positive or neutral value in the majors.
- 50 – Average MLB starters, or elite relievers.
- 55 – Above-average MLB starters.
- 60 – Plus MLB performers. Players can be graded higher than this, but this is the threshold when players start becoming the best in the game.
Once a player has a Current Value assigned, I project his improvements until he reaches his Future Value projection. This mapped out career path varies by player, but gives a good idea of where a player is today, when he might reach the majors, and when he might reach that mythical Future Value.
The rankings below separate the system into talent tiers, with my numerical rankings listed within the tiers, along with Current and Future Values, and MLB/FV ETAs.
TIER ONE: NEXT IN LINE?
The Pirates have seen a downgrade to the top tier in their system. That’s to be expected when you graduate two of the best pitching prospects in the game in Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. I don’t see a lot of separation between the top three or four remaining prospects in the system, but I’m putting the number one guy in his own tier for a reason.
BUBBA CHANDLER, RHP
CV: 30 | FV: 60 | MLB ETA: 2025 | FV ETA: 2027+ | Trend: UP
Chandler has a 4.17 ERA in 54 innings at the Double-A level this year, but has stepped up his game in his last six starts. He’s got an upper 90s fastball that works well at the top of the zone, a swing and miss slider that works off the fastball low in the zone, and a developing changeup. Chandler represents the best option to pitch in the top half of an MLB rotation in the future, with Skenes being the only pitcher who has more upside in the Pirates’ organization. I like the development of Chandler over the last year, and give him a better chance than anyone in the system of at least above-average performance in the majors.
TIER TWO: ABOVE-AVERAGE POTENTIAL
The Pirates have three prospects who stand out for their chance to be above-average in the majors one day, in addition to Chandler above. They’ll add one more player to the top two tiers with the ninth pick in the upcoming MLB draft.
TERMARR JOHNSON, 2B
CV: 25 | FV: 60 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2027+ | Trend: UP
Johnson was drafted fourth overall in 2022, due to being the best pure prep hitter in the draft. He’s shown more of a power approach in pro ball, with a .237 average over the last two years. The Pirates haven’t shown an ability to develop hitters, which is why Johnson gets bumped down in my rankings. He’s done well over the last six weeks, getting a boost above the pitchers in this tier. Note his CV grade puts him as a Double-A talent. He’s playing in High-A, but I believe Johnson is more talented than this level, even with the lower results.
BRAXTON ASHCRAFT, RHP
CV: 35 | FV: 55 | MLB ETA: 2024 | FV ETA: 2026+ | Trend: UP
Ashcraft is currently injured, but since the last update, he’s gone to Triple-A and pitched well. With a fastball that can reach upper-90s, and swing and miss secondary offerings, I think he could pitch in the majors as a reliever this year. His upside is a starter, but innings are an issue right now. He could finish this season with around a career high of 100 innings, which would give him a good base to be a full-season starter in 2025, with a chance to make the majors in that role.
THOMAS HARRINGTON, RHP
CV: 30 | FV: 55 | MLB ETA: 2025 | FV ETA: 2027+ | Trend: FLAT
Harrington has some of the best control in the Pirates’ system, and is one of the most cognizant pitchers they have. I’ve heard a few stories of how he has helped other pitchers improve their pitches, including helping Jared Jones with his fastball. That gives Harrington added value, but he also can pitch. He lacks the upper-90s stuff of the previous guys on this list, but he gets results with a mix of average or better offerings, and plus control and command. He’s another guy who I believe is more talented than his current level.
TIER THREE: FUTURE STARTERS
I have trouble labeling the tiers to include every player in the group. I wouldn’t say that any player is guaranteed as a starter in the majors, but the players in this tier all have better chances than most in the system to emerge as a future starter in the big leagues.
HUNTER BARCO, LHP
CV: 25 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2027+ | Trend: UP
Add Barco to the list of players who is more talented than his current level. The Pirates drafted him in the second round in 2022, as he was recovering from Tommy John. He’s in his first full season this year, getting work in High-A. The easier level should help his adjustment into full-time pro ball, as he develops his stuff. His fastball has consistently gotten up to mid-90s this year, with developments to his slider and changeup that will give him a five pitch mix. He could finish the year in the Altoona rotation.
ANTHONY SOLOMETO, LHP
CV: 25 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2027+ | Trend: DOWN
Solometo was previously in the above-average tier, but has struggled this year in Altoona, and is currently on the development list. I’m not ready to bump him down lower than this, as he’s in his age 21 season, and showed last year he could pitch at this level. He’s had control issues this year, and has been hit harder than last year. Solometo gets a lot of points for a deceptive delivery, but it hasn’t been fooling anyone this year.
ZANDER MUETH, RHP
CV: 15 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2027+ | FV ETA: 2028+ | Trend: UP
The Pirates drafted Mueth 67th overall last year, and the prep pitcher has looked great in his pro debut. Mueth has a 1.65 ERA in 32.2 innings, with a 36:18 K/BB. He’s recently gotten up to five innings per start, with only one unearned run allowed in 15 innings across his last three outings. He has a fastball that can get up to the upper 90s from a funky lower arm slot, with the ability for strikeouts, and improved control during the month of June.
CHARLES MCADOO, 3B
CV: 25 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2027+ | Trend: UP
McAdoo has been the best hitting story in the Pirates system this year. Drafted in the 13th round last year out of San Jose State, he has combined for a .320/.412/.553 line in pro ball across three levels. He was recently promoted to Altoona, where he continues hitting with a 1.022 OPS through his first ten games. I decided to grade him as if he’s a future starter, though conservatively enough to project him arriving in the majors at age 24 and being a starter at age 25. That still makes him the second best hitting prospect in the system, and you could rank him higher if you’re buying the early results.
LONNIE WHITE JR., OF
CV: 20 | FV: 55 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2028+ | Trend: FLAT
White was drafted 64th overall in 2021, but missed a lot of time the last two years with injuries. This was to be his first full season in pro ball. He’s currently out with an injury, but has shown plus power in his time on the field this year. White has 11 homers and a .220 isolated power in 231 plate appearances in High-A this year. He’s striking out at a high rate, and not hitting for average. The power at a younger age is great to see, with hopes that he can develop the hit tool. His FV grade is higher than anyone in this tier, but he’s another hitter who gets downgraded for the system trend.
TIER FOUR: FRINGE STARTERS
The players in this tier have a chance to make the majors as starters, though a more conservative projection has them around 45+ grades, which would be below-average for a Major League starter. There’s potential with each player, but something holding each of them back.
PATRICK REILLY, RHP
CV: 25 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2027+ | Trend: UP
The Pirates drafted Reilly in the fifth round last year, and he’s been one of the best non-Skenes pitchers in the draft class. Reilly currently leads the Pirates’ minor league system with 82 strikeouts, fueled by a fastball that sits mid-90s, and a pair of sliders that generate a lot of swing and miss. He also does well to work fast and mix his pitches well. Reilly has dealt with control problems, but is showing improvements in that area, and could be ready for a second-half promotion to Altoona.[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]
JACK BRANNIGAN, 3B
CV: 20 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2027+ | Trend: UP
Brannigan has plus defensive abilities on the left side of the infield, along with plus power. He’s done a good job this year of reducing his strikeout totals, though this has come with a lower average and lower power results than last year in High-A. The defense and power will get him to the upper levels, but a potential three-outcomes approach might limit his value.
MICHAEL KENNEDY, LHP
CV: 20 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2027+ | FV ETA: 2028+ | Trend: FLAT
Kennedy is currently on the injured list, after struggling for a few starts in June. The lefty doesn’t throw hard, though he has gotten his fastball into the 90 MPH range. He’s a cerebral pitcher who has advanced secondary stuff, good control, and an ability to improve his game from all sources. He’s the type you bet on for continuous improvement, and the 19-year-old could develop into the back of an MLB rotation one day.
TSUNG-CHE CHENG, SS
CV: 25 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2027+ | Trend: DOWN
Cheng is one of the best pure hitters in the Pirates’ system, but has stalled at the Double-A level. He stands out for his focus, never taking a single pitch off on either side of the ball. This allows him to provide value all over the field, whether it’s middle infield defense, stolen bases, or even capitalizing on bad pitches for power. He’s decline a bit this year, taking more of a power approach than previous years. The sell out to power across this system is hopefully a short-term development strategy, as it’s leading to some bad results from the pure hitters.
KYLE NICOLAS, RHP
CV: 40 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2024 | FV ETA: 2025+ | Trend: FLAT
Nicolas isn’t a future starter, but he does have the stuff to be a future impact reliever. Control has been his biggest issue, but Nicolas has one of the best fastballs on the Pirates, with only Bailey Falter having a better run value on the fastball in Pittsburgh this year. Nicolas needs to improve his control to get to the level where he can be a reliable late-inning guy. He’s currently eight relief appearances away from losing prospect eligibility, which should happen by the end of 2024.
MIKE BURROWS, RHP
CV: 30 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2025 | FV ETA: 2027 | Trend: FLAT
Burrows went down with Tommy John last year, and is currently in the early part of his rehab work in his return. The good news is that his old velocity has returned, and his secondary stuff has shown swing and miss ability. Prior to his injury, I saw him as a future starter, and I’ve seen nothing to reduce that upside. He could reach the majors this year in a limited capacity, but I think it’s more likely he rehabs this year and arrives next year, with a chance to develop into the starting rotation in the future.
TIER FIVE: SYSTEM DEPTH
This is where the Pirates have shown strength in their farm system. It’s not based off players who are top prospects, but from a large group of guys who could develop into top prospects. The guys from this tier could eventually be starters, or higher. They’re unlikely to be a trade chip, but they could boost a trade return as more than a lottery ticket. I like the collection of talent in this large tier, with MLB upside across the board. There’s a lot of development across a lot of levels for most of these guys.
ANTWONE KELLY, RHP
CV: 20 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2028+ | Trend: UP
Kelly has been one of the biggest breakouts in Single-A this year, with a 3.75 ERA across 60 innings, fueled by a 2.15 ERA since the start of May. He’s got a fastball that consistently hits upper 90s, a good changeup, and a cutter that gets swing and miss. Kelly has been improving his control as the season has progressed, emerging as one of the top prospects on a Bradenton team that is well represented in this tier.
CARLSON REED, RHP
CV: 20 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2027+ | Trend: FLAT
The Pirates drafted Reed as a reliever out of West Virginia in the fourth round last year. He’s been one of the best pitchers in Bradenton, as he’s adjusted to the workload of a starter. Reed has a 2.59 ERA in 62.2 innings this year in Single-A, while showing improved control as the season has continued. He has three average or better pitches, and could end up in High-A by the end of the season, now that he’s fully stretched out as a starter.
OMAR ALFONZO, C/1B
CV: 20 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2028+ | Trend: FLAT
No one in Bradenton hits the ball harder, more consistently, than Alfonzo. The son of former big league catcher Eliezer Alfonzo, Omar has the skills to be a catcher all the way to the majors, but the power to be a first base prospect. His contact rate isn’t consistent, but he does well with pitch recognition. His power is more raw power, slowly being incorporated more into games. His role as a catcher with pop gives him a great chance to reach the upper levels, where he could eventually develop into a second generation Major Leaguer.
DAVID MATOMA, RHP
CV: 15 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2028 | FV ETA: 2029+ | Trend: FLAT
Matoma is only 18-years-old, but is one of the hardest throwers in the system. He’s been said to hit triple-digits already, despite throwing from a 6′ 0″, 154 pound frame. Signed out of Uganda in 2023, the velocity has been a surprise, but the results in pro ball have stood out even more. Matoma has a 0.51 ERA in 35 innings between the DSL and FCL, including an 0.98 ERA in 18.1 innings in the FCL this year. He has 24 strikeouts and seven walks this year, showing swing and miss, plus decent control for a hard thrower of his age. The Pirates have limited him to two inning appearances, and he’s currently on the injured list.
KHRISTIAN CURTIS, RHP
CV: 20 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2028+ | Trend: FLAT
Curtis was drafted in the 12th round last year out of Arizona State, but didn’t have a lot of experience as a pitcher heading into pro ball. He’s got a six-pitch mix, led by a fastball that gets up to 97 MPH. He throws a curveball, slider, and a changeup with swing and miss ability on all three pitches. This season has allowed Curtis to develop how to use his arsenal, while allowing him to work on improving his control.
JHONNY SEVERINO, RHP
CV: 15 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2028 | FV ETA: 2029+ | Trend: UP
The Pirates added Severino last year in the Carlos Santana trade with the Brewers. The middle infielder is in his age 19 season, showing impressive power at the lowest levels. Severino has eight home runs in 154 plate appearances in the FCL this year, batting .277/.370/.562. He has speed on the bases, and good plate patience. Severino could reach Single-A in the second half this year.
JUN-SEOK SHIM, RHP
CV: 10 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2028 | FV ETA: 2029+ | Trend: DOWN
The reports on Shim have been great, with the 6′ 4″, 215 pound right-hander from Korea having one of the best fastballs in the system. That’s not just the lowest levels, but even when compared to upper-level guys. He’s only pitched eight innings in pro ball, and is currently out with a right shoulder injury. He’s dealt with an elbow and pectoral injury in the past, and the constant injuries make him closer to a raw development project who needs to learn how to pitch while staying healthy.
KEINER DELGADO, INF
CV: 20 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2028+ | Trend: UP
Delgado was acquired this year in the JT Brubaker trade to the Yankees. The 5′ 7″, 145 pound middle infielder has shown power potential with his bat, but is hitting .233/.308/.392 in Single-A. He’s got impressive speed, with 12 stolen bases in 15 attempts, and could end up a top of the lineup hitter with some pop in his bat.
ALESSANDRO ERCOLANI, RHP
CV: 20 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2028+ | Trend: DOWN
Ercolani was signed out of San Marino in 2021, and is pitching in High-A during his age-20 season. He features an advanced mix of pitches, but hasn’t shown consistency in his implementation of those pitches. He started the year in the Greensboro rotation, looking good in the first few starts, before a rough month of May. He’s since settled in a long relief role, with improved control during the month of June. Ercolani is an intriguing young arm due to his advanced pitch mix, and an ability for swing and miss that has led to 49 strikeouts in 40.2 innings this year.
MATT GORSKI, OF
CV: 35 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2024 | FV ETA: 2025+ | Trend: DOWN
Gorski is in his age 26 season, and is hitting for power in Triple-A, but has questions about his upside in the majors. He has a swing that starts with a timing leg kick out over the plate, before his top half collapses over the plate with a long bat path. It’s a disconnected approach that leads to power when he makes contact, but could create issues with contact consistency in the majors. The Pirates aren’t rushing to give him an opportunity, despite having outfield needs, which furthers the likelihood that his upside will be limited. I’ve got him as a 45+ grade in a neutral setting, due to strong outfield defense to pair with his power. It seems unlikely he’ll reach that upside with the Pirates.
ESMERLYN VALDEZ, OF/1B
CV: 20 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2028+ | Trend: UP
Valdez has shown some of the best in-game power in Bradenton this year, hitting nine home runs in 216 at-bats. He’s batting .236/.355/.435, showing good on-base skills that he’s had throughout his young career, but a lack of consistency making contact. He has a 35% strikeout rate this year, which is a red flag when projecting him going forward. The power can play at a corner spot, but his contact rate will need to improve to have success beyond Double-A.
ESTUAR SUERO, OF
CV: 15 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2028 | FV ETA: 2029+ | Trend: DOWN
The Pirates added Suero last year in a trade that sent Rich Hill and Ji Man Choi to the Padres. They added two other players in the deal, but Suero was the main return. The 18-year-old has been injured this year, limited to 32 plate appearances in the FCL. He’s graded high for a frame that projects power, at a listed 6′ 6″, 180 pounds. He’s shown some power and speed early in his career. Suero just recently returned from the IL, and will be a guy to watch in the FCL down the stretch.
YORDANY DE LOS SANTOS, INF
CV: 15 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2027 | FV ETA: 2028+ | Trend: UP
The Pirates gave De Los Santos an aggressive push to Single-A last year, but he put up a .578 OPS, getting sent to the FCL in the second half. He returned to the FCL this year, and has put up the best results at the level for the Pirates, with improved power over his success in rookie ball last year. De Los Santos is in his age-19 season, showing some power and enough speed to steal 52 bases in 524 at-bats across three seasons. He could get another shot at Single-A in the second half of 2024.
PO-YU CHEN, RHP
CV: 25 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2027+ | Trend: FLAT
Chen almost dropped in my rankings, before putting together an impressive month of June where he had a 2.95 ERA in 36.2 innings. What stood out was his strikeout rate, with his 29 strikeouts more than doubling his previous month’s total. Chen doesn’t have a powerful fastball, but has quality secondary stuff. He was getting hit in Double-A before the month of June, which could be a sign that he’s starting to learn how to pitch against upper level hitters.
TONY BLANCO JR., 1B
CV: 15 | FV: 45 | MLB ETA: 2028 | FV ETA: 2029+ | Trend: FLAT
At 6′ 7″, 243 pounds, Blanco is one of the best raw power prospects in the lower levels. He’s shown some of that power so far, hitting four homers in 86 at-bats this year in the FCL, after five homers in 136 at-bats last year in the DSL. The 19-year-old has been more limited than others at this level in playing time, but is putting up good enough results to justify trying his bat in Single-A at some point in the next year.
TIER SIX: SLEEPERS
The final tier consists of sleepers who are outside of the top 30. There isn’t a huge difference between the first few guys on this list and the last few guys on the previous tier. The sleeper group makes up the remainder of the top 50, and you could extend it to include the top 60.
Javier Rivas, INF; Mitch Jebb, INF; Luis Peralta, LHP; Sean Sullivan, RHP; Owen Kellington, RHP; Bralyn Brazoban, OF; Jase Bowen, OF; Malcom Nunez, 1B; Tres Gonzalez, OF; Axiel Plaz, C; Richard Ramirez, C; Drake Fellows, RHP; Abrahan Gutierrez, C; Garret Forrester, C/3B; Shalin Polanco, OF; Carlos Jimenez, RHP; Justin Meis, RHP; Aaron Shortridge, RHP; Hudson Head, OF; J.P. Massey, RHP
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