The Pittsburgh Pirates re-signed Domingo German to a minor league deal yesterday, after the two sides parted ways last week. German opted out of his original deal with the Pirates, and was granted his release over the All-Star Break to pursue other opportunities.
German was pitching better over his last six starts. He had two rough outings, but four others where he looked like a Major League depth option out of Triple-A. One of those was his final start with Indianapolis, where he allowed two runs in six innings of work. That was the second time during this stretch he’s thrown six innings, with two runs allowed in both starts.
Rotation depth hasn’t been the biggest need for the Pirates, but it does represent the team’s biggest strength this year.
The Strength of the Pirates
The Pittsburgh rotation ranks fourth in the majors with a combined 3.56 ERA. They rank 9th in FIP at 3.89.
The performance at the Major League level has mostly been led by the trio of Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes, and Jared Jones. Keller has a 3.46 ERA in 114.1 innings, and is on pace for a 3+ WAR season. This would be the fourth year in a row that he’s shown improvements at the Major League level.
Keller has been helped by the two rookies, with Skenes putting up a 1.90 ERA in 66.1 innings during his rookie season. Jones is currently injured, but had a 3.56 ERA in 91 innings during his rookie campaign.
Behind those big three, the Pirates have turned to Bailey Falter this year. The lefty had a 4.08 ERA in 90.1 innings, before going down on July 8th with left triceps tendonitis. He should begin his rehab assignment soon, which is a good sign.
During the offseason, the Pirates traded for Marco Gonzales and signed Martin Perez. The two lefties look more like depth options than leaders of the group at this point, which is a good thing overall. If Perez and Gonzales had been statistical leaders of this group by this point, it would have meant disappointing things for Skenes and Jones.
Perez has struggled since a hot start in April. In fact, since Skenes joined the rotation, Perez has been the worst starter to pitch in Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Gonzales has been injured for most of that time, only recently returning to allow a 2.79 ERA in 9.2 innings.
The Pirates turned to bullpen games for a few months, with their rotation banged up. From the bullpen approach, Luis Ortiz has emerged as another promising young starter. The 25-year-old has an 0.73 ERA in 24.2 innings as a starter this season, while also looking great in extended relief appearances.
At the moment, the healthy rotation is Keller, Skenes, Ortiz, Gonzales, and Perez. Falter could return soon, after pitching a sim game over the break. Jones will be rehabbing into August. At this point, Falter should replace Perez, while Jones would create a difficult decision with Gonzales or Ortiz.
Extended Pitching Depth
Keller, Skenes, Jones, Falter, Ortiz, Gonzales, Perez.
When the Pirates have needed a starter beyond those three, they’ve either turned to bullpen games or Quinn Priester. After allowing two runs in six innings on July 9th, Priester has been moved to the bullpen. He’s allowed one run in three innings across two appearances.
I like that Priester is getting MLB experience in shorter bursts. He’s pitched well as a starter in Triple-A, putting up a 3.21 ERA in 33.2 innings this year. His issue has been building confidence in the majors. I think this can be accomplished easier with shorter outings at the MLB level in a secure role, rather than hoping for the best across six innings in a temporary start.
If Priester was the eighth starter, that would make German number nine on the depth charts. They have Jake Woodford and Luis Cessa in Triple-A, with both being signed in early June to help the Indianapolis rotation depth. Woodford and Cessa have both pitched in the majors as depth options across the last several seasons.
Right now, only two starters need to go down for German to get the call to the big leagues. The odds of Woodford and Cessa making starts are slim, especially when Falter returns.
The good thing about the depth is the Pirates could trade from this strength to help boost their offense. That’s even more probable when you see who is arriving next season.
Next Year’s Prospects
This year’s rotation has received a boost from two rookies. Skenes and Jones have combined for 3.4 wins above replacement. Let’s say that Woodford is the definition of a replacement level pitcher. The Pirates are 50-49 right now. Jumping from the Woodford level of starters (currently #10 on the depth chart) to guys like Skenes and Jones has pushed this team into winning territory.
Next year’s prospect class looks just as strong.
Bubba Chandler is currently the top prospect in the Pirates’ system. He’s pitching in Double-A right now, but has been one of the best pitchers in the minor league system over the last two months. Chandler has a 2.45 ERA in 44 innings since his start on May 29th, with a 50:7 K/BB. He also pitched a scoreless inning to close out the Future’s Game. As far as pure stuff and potential, only Skenes rates better than Chandler.
Chandler is joined in Altoona by Thomas Harrington, who was drafted 36th overall in 2022. Harrington has a 2.44 ERA in 62.2 innings this year at the Double-A level, with a 69:8 K/BB. In terms of upside and potential, I’d put Harrington on the tier of Keller. He’s not going to overpower hitters, but he simply knows how to pitch, with plus control and command, and a good assortment of average or better offerings.
Those two have recently been joined by left-hander Hunter Barco, who made his debut in Altoona on Sunday with three shutout innings and five strikeouts. Barco was drafted in the second round in 2022, despite being down with Tommy John. This is his first full-season since the surgery, and he’s shown a lot of improvements. His velocity is up from the low-90s to sitting around 94 and touching 96. He’s also improved his secondary stuff, now working with a five pitch mix. Barco might not be a rotation option next year, outside of a late-season appearance, but he’s got a chance to be an above-average starter pitching in PNC Park in the future.
Finally, there’s Braxton Ashcraft, who from a talent standpoint deserves to be mentioned as a depth option for this season. Ashcraft is also in his first full year back from Tommy John, though he’s currently down with an injury in Triple-A. Before the injury, he had an 0.49 ERA in 18.1 innings. That came after a 3.69 ERA in 53.2 innings in Double-A. Ashcraft could see significant time in the majors in 2025.
This list could continue. Mike Burrows was seen as a rotation depth option at the start of 2022, and is returning from Tommy John this year. He could work his way back into the mix next year. Po-Yu Chen has been on fire in Altoona over the last two months, after being a seven-figure signing out of Taiwan in late 2020. There’s also left-hander Anthony Solometo, who has been on the development list for the last two months, and returned this weekend with three scoreless innings in the FCL.
My most recent top prospect list had RHP Zander Mueth, LHP Michael Kennedy, and RHP Patrick Reilly as standouts from the lower levels for longer-term rotation options.
The Pirates have no shortage of starting pitching. German boosts the depth this year, with veteran help needed, but the minor league system is set to have prospects making an impact every year going forward.
And if German can find consistency for his elite-level of potential performance, the Pirates will have a rotation this year that looks like it could be one of the most dangerous playoff staffs.
Pirates Prospect Watch
Hunter Barco made his Altoona debut with three shutout innings, followed by five innings from Bubba Chandler. In Greensboro, Termarr Johnson extended his hitting streak to 15 games with a 9th inning solo homer. Read about all of Sunday’s action in the latest Pirates Prospect Watch.
Pirates Prospect Watch: Hunter Barco Makes His Double-A Debut
