One of my favorite levels to follow as a prospect writer is Single-A. This level features a lot of raw abilities, and young players who are just making the jump to full-season pro ball. A few years ago, MLB adjusted the minor league levels to put Single-A in the same city as the MLB team’s minor league complexes. As a result, this level is more like a college environment than anywhere else in full-season pro ball.
The players at this level are developing up raw skills. Maybe they’ve got one ability and they’re looking to add more. Maybe they have immense skills that they’re looking to refine. This is the level of sleepers, where we all sit back and watch to see which players turn their skills into results.
As a result of this sleeper-heavy level, you’re not going to find many players projected for MLB futures, at least not without a lot of positive projection in the process.
Above-Average Potential
As I mentioned in yesterday’s Greensboro article, there is only one player below Double-A who I would classify with above-average potential. That is Termarr Johnson. The Single-A level requires even more projection to predict someone will advance to a 55+ grade in the majors. A lot of the players at this level are barely 20-grade, which is the borderline for professional play. Most of them are athletes, getting their first full season of work in pro ball.
Potential Starters
I also wouldn’t project a lot of players from this level as future starters. The Pirates have a lot of raw players at this level this year, and there’s only one player who I would essentially go out on a limb to project as a starter. This projection requires giving the benefit of the doubt for the next three seasons of development, and then some.
Michael Kennedy, LHP – Kennedy doesn’t throw hard, with a fastball that averages 90 MPH and touches 92. That’s up from when he was drafted out of high school in the fourth round in 2022. I wrote about Kennedy recently for Baseball America. He’s a smart pitcher who has picked up a lot of tips on improving his game from many different sources. He’s added a new sweeper this year, while also developing a kick changeup. I project him as a potential future starter mostly because of the proven ability to progress his development, along with his aggressive drive for improvement. Those players tend to have the X-factor to push through adversity. Kennedy is also a smart competitor on the mound, allowing all of his stuff to play up, even if he doesn’t lead with the highest velocity fastball.
System Depth
The Pirates have a few raw pitchers from the college ranks who they are building up as starters at this level. They also have one from the international ranks who stands above the rest. At the very least, I could see these guys making the majors as relievers if they eventually simplify their pitch mix and approach. For now, they’re getting more experience at the lower A-ball level. These are the remaining players in Bradenton who I project with a good chance of reaching the majors, even if only in a depth role.
Khristian Curtis, RHP – Curtis has a six-pitch mix, led by a fastball that sits 95-96, touching 97. He doesn’t have much experience on the mound, despite being drafted out of the college ranks. The Pirates gave him an over-slot bonus as a 12th rounder out of Arizona State last year, getting him in the organization to develop that six pitch mix. Curtis has worked out of the Bradenton rotation, showing promise in some of his starts, but also showing control issues in some of his worst outings. The Pirates have just recently progressed him to 5-6 innings per start, and he’s using all of his pitches in each outing. His fastball is good enough to allow him to simplify the approach and convert to a reliever in the upper levels, choosing his best secondary to pair with the velocity. The Pirates should continue developing this raw pitcher as a starter for now.
Carlson Reed, RHP – Reed was drafted in the fourth round last year out of West Virginia. He worked as a reliever in college, and profiled as a guy with three average or better pitches, but control issues. The Pirates have moved him to the rotation in Single-A, hoping to develop Reed’s stuff through his control issues. So far, he has a 2.50 ERA in 39.2 innings, with a 10.66 K/9. The control has shown up with a 5.9 BB/9 rate. Reed has walked at least one batter in each of his nine starts, and only has one outing with a single free pass. His three pitch mix could work as a reliever in the upper levels, but he’s another guy who would benefit from more innings in the lower levels first.
Antwone Kelly, RHP –
