I’ve been going through the Pittsburgh Pirates’ minor league system over the last month, projecting out the prospects at every level.
The Triple-A level is all about depth for the current season. The Double-A level shows the rising talent for next year and beyond. Once you get down to A-ball, the focus shifts from performance to potential. The High-A level is where you want to start seeing skills and potential shift to performance in the game.
Players at this level can still be projected for big things in the future, even if they don’t have present day results from their tools. However, you need to see someone performing well before they take that big jump to Double-A, and start narrowing the window of when they might arrive at the big league level.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have some talent in High-A Greensboro, led by the best hitting prospect in the system.
Above-Average Potential
It takes a lot of projection to classify someone in A-ball as a future above-average player. That’s at least a 55-grade, and in my rankings, the High-A level is filled with 15-25 Current Value players.
At best, you’ve got a 25-CV player who is being projected up to a 55 Future Value or higher. That’s a lot of ground to cover with a lot of development and experience. For that reason, and due to the makeup of the system, I only have one Pirates prospect projected for above-average potential below Double-A.
That’s not to say that others can’t develop into that role. It’s just that there’s only one player who I feel comfortable projecting that much value for their future game.
Termarr Johnson, INF – Johnson is the top hitting prospect in the Pirates’ system, though like most of the hitting prospects in the system, his numbers aren’t living up to his skill level. He’s batting .202/.379/.337 this year in Greensboro, seeing a slight dip in production from his debut last season. Johnson has some power potential to all fields from a 5′ 8″ frame, but what stands out is his contact ability. He shows the potential to make quick, last second adjustments to upper level breaking stuff, contorting his body to put the bat on the ball. The Pirates seem to be developing up his power, and I have no questions about the contact approach. The question would be when, and if Johnson can blend the two approaches together for productive results. That has yet to happen.
Potential Starters
Even when projecting future MLB starters, it’s difficult to have accuracy from High-A. The four players below have the best shot of reaching a future 50-grade and being average starters in the big leagues. Some of them might be below-average, but starters nonetheless.
You could also interchange some of the players in this section with some of the system depth players in the next section. I’m projecting these players to a 45-50 FV, while the next section is 35-45 FV.
Hunter Barco, LHP – Barco is playing his first full season in pro ball, after recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2022. The Pirates drafted him in the second round, despite the surgery, and he’s now to the point of developing his pitches. I wrote about that recently for Baseball America, with Barco adjusting to a five-pitch mix, after adding a cutter and working on a changeup this year. He has a 2.45 ERA in 42.1 innings, with 51 strikeouts and 13 walks. Barco will have five pitches by the middle of this season, and could move up to Double-A after that progression is completed.
Lonnie White Jr., OF –
