In a week and a half, the Pittsburgh Pirates will open their regular season against the Miami Marlins. Their roster is still taking shape, with late additions Michael A. Taylor and Domingo German recently being added as free agents. Despite late moves, the roster is looking better than what we’ve seen in years prior, and could start to point to a club that can contend.
A Consistent Lineup
The biggest difference heading into the 2024 season is that the Pirates have the makings of a consistent daily lineup. I’m not speaking of consistency in terms of player performance, but rather the consistency of names and positions.
This is different from previous years in this build. In those years, the Pirates had more stopgap players, more unproven prospects, and fewer players with impact potential. There are still question marks across the board in 2024, but I don’t see any position at risk of below-replacement-level performance.
Without getting into batting order, here is the regular position player group as it looks right now.
C – Henry Davis/Yasmani Grandal
1B – Rowdy Tellez
2B – OPEN
SS – Oneil Cruz
3B – Ke’Bryan Hayes
LF – Bryan Reynolds
CF – Michael A. Taylor
RF – Jack Suwinski
DH – Andrew McCutchen
There is one position that remains open, a few positions with proven regulars, and several wild card spots where the performance is up in the air, but could have impact potential. Breaking down the different spots…
The Second Base Battle
At this stage in camp, it looks like second base could come down to Liover Peguero versus Jared Triolo. Technically, Nick Gonzales is in this mix, but the 2020 first overall pick has a .596 OPS heading into Sunday, after struggling at the plate in previous seasons. Meanwhile, Triolo has a .900 OPS and Peguero has an .828 OPS. It would be difficult to justify Gonzales over either player.
It’s possible that Triolo and Peguero both make the roster, while sharing the second base role. In the past, we would have seen more scenarios like this, where the Pirates were looking for someone from a group of options to step up as a proven starter at more than one position. This year, not only are there fewer positions with question marks, but the options available were legit top prospects, leave some optimism for positive production.
The Proven Regulars
The Pirates have core of players who expect to get regular playing time, with a good track record of production in their past. In these cases, it doesn’t matter what happens during Spring Training. These players are preparing for guaranteed roles on the roster.
Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds both lead the way for the Pirates, and with both players being under long-term extensions, that sentence will remain true for years. Hayes started showing better power last year, in his first Gold Glove season at third base. With a step forward at the plate, Hayes becomes one of the best players in the game. Without that step, he’s still an above-average regular at third base. Reynolds, meanwhile, has been a 6 WAR outfielder for one season, but has been in the 2.5 WAR range the last two years. Either production level provides stability, but Reynolds has shown his impact potential, which the Pirates need from somewhere.
Jack Suwinski has impact potential in the power department. The outfielder hit 26 home runs last year, and has 45 in his first two seasons in the majors. Imagining a 30-home-run season in 2024 isn’t far fetched. Suwinski does struggle against lefties, which means he could be platooned with one of the bench outfielders. That platoon possibility makes him the only player of this group who might not see regular playing time.
The Pirates brought in a few veteran free agents to fill out the lineup. The latest addition was Michael A. Taylor, who will give the Pirates plus defense in center field, allowing Suwinski and Reynolds to focus their energy more at the plate. Taylor is coming off a season where he hit 21 homers and stole 13 bases. Both are outliers to his career totals, but they’re not single-season outliers. Taylor has four seasons with double-digit home runs since 2015, including two since 2020. He has three seasons of a .200+ isolated power, including two since 2020. He’s got six seasons with double-digit steals, with two since 2020. He’s likely to hit .225-.250, get on base at a .275-.300 rate, and if he hits for power from the bottom of the order, it will be a bonus to his defense. The biggest benefit to this addition is that the Pirates have a true center fielder for the first time in years.
Andrew McCutchen was brought back as the designated hitter, after leading the team last year with a .378 OBP. McCutchen is near the end of his career, and doesn’t have the same impact potential he had in his first run through this organization. He’s still capable of a tough at-bat, reaching base, and double-digit home runs. His first home run of the season will be his 300th career homer. McCutchen could also see some time in the outfield.
Rowdy Tellez was added as the starting first baseman. This move is somewhat questionable, as the Pirates had Carlos Santana available to bring back for a few million more. Last year, the Brewers traded for Santana to replace Tellez. This year, Santana commanded more money. There is a consensus that Santana was the better option. The advantage that Tellez has is that he’s nearly a decade younger, and might just be coming off a down year in 2023. He had a .667 OPS and 13 home runs last year. His OPS every other season has been above .700. He hit 35 home runs and a .767 OPS in 2022. The Pirates could use those numbers at first base, and the lefty Tellez could benefit from PNC Park. If he struggles, the Pirates have Jake Lamb as a veteran insurance option. Connor Joe doesn’t add power, but can handle the position. Triolo loses defensive value here, but might be the best long-term option from within.
The Wild Cards
The two players who stand out with impact potential the most are Oneil Cruz and Henry Davis. Together, they give the Pirates more power potential than they’ve seen in years from any two players. Combined with Suwinski and Tellez, these two give the Pirates a chance to have four different 30-home-run hitters.
The key for Cruz will be health. He’s been crushing the ball this spring, but has less than a full season of plate appearances in the majors entering his age 25 season. The key for Davis will be adjusting to the majors as a catcher. He’s going to be spending a lot of focus behind the plate, and he’s yet to show the ability to hit for power while maintaining the defensive effort in the upper levels. He should be splitting time with Yasmani Grandal, when the veteran backstop gets healthy. That could allow Davis to keep his bat in the lineup and his body fresh as a DH during the off days.
The appeal with both is obvious: Power from the catcher and shortstop positions. If the Pirates get the expected power production from one of these two, they’ve got a true middle of the order hitter. If both players step up, this lineup is a contending lineup.
A Strong Bullpen
The biggest offseason addition the Pirates made this year was bringing in reliever Aroldis Chapman for one year and $10.5 million. Joining David Bednar, the Pirates now have one of the best late-inning combos in the big leagues, which will allow them to shut down games they’re winning after the seventh inning.
As a group, the bullpen looks like a strength of this team. This can change quickly. The Pirates have already lost Dauri Moreta, who was one of the most interesting setup men. Bednar has also dealt with an injury this spring. This group looks different if it’s Chapman closing with the remaining relievers pushing for a setup role.
The best of those remaining relievers are Colin Holderman, Carmen Mlodzinski, and Ryan Borucki. All three look great as seventh inning options. If the Pirates need one of them for a setup man, they could get results, but it wouldn’t be the elite level of Bednar/Chapman.
From this core group of five relievers, the Pirates have three more spots to fill. Josh Fleming and Jose Hernandez will likely battle it out for one of the lefty roles in the bullpen, joining Borucki. The remaining two spots will be a battle between Hunter Stratton, Chase Anderson, Wily Peralta, and Brent Honeywell Jr. Although it’s not guaranteed that the final spots will go to these two, or that they’ll be MLB fixtures like the first five relievers mentioned.
The makeup of the bullpen could depend on what the Pirates do with their rotation.
Questions in the Rotation
At the top of the rotation, the Pirates have recently extended Mitch Keller, along with offseason additions Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales. The Pirates have seen improvements from Keller three years in a row, culminating in a 3+ WAR performance in 2023. Perez and Gonzales, both lefties, are bounce-back candidates, with better seasons in their history than their 2023 results showed. I wrote on Friday why I’m encouraged by both this spring. I could see them both at least eating innings.
From there, the Pirates have two open spots and question marks on who will step up and fill the roles. The top candidates on the 40-man roster are Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester, Bailey Falter, and Luis Ortiz. If you grade by Spring Training results, Priester and Ortiz lead the group. Both pitchers are coming off good outings, while Contreras and Falter have both struggled in recent appearances.
The best pitcher this spring has been Jared Jones, who isn’t on the 40-man roster, but has made a case for earning an Opening Day shot in Pittsburgh. Jones hasn’t allowed an earned run in 11.1 innings this spring, and had a 4.72 ERA in 82 innings last year in Triple-A, while striking out 99 batters. If he joins the team, he’s instantly got some of the best stuff of any pitcher in the rotation.
The Pirates have added Eric Lauer and Domingo German on late minor league deals. Neither pitcher seems like they’ll be ready for Opening Day, but they both could give the Pirates depth for the 2024 season. German has struggled with off-field issues related to alcohol, and will need to do more than produce on the field in order to reach Pittsburgh. Lauer is coming off a season with a 6.56 ERA, with better results in previous years due to lower walk and home run totals. Both pitchers could give the Pirates a 1-2 WAR starter as depth, which is better than their depth options in previous years.
The biggest issue with the rotation isn’t the depth, but the lack of top-end talent. This will begin to change when 2023 first overall pick Paul Skenes joins the big league club, though I wouldn’t expect Skenes to be a top of the rotation guy in the majors in 2024. Perez has the best chance of joining Keller as a 3+ WAR pitcher. The Pirates will hope for innings and positive production from Gonzales. From there, the goal will be maximizing the depth for the final two spots.
At the end of the 2023 season, the Pirates experimented with bullpen games. This approach could be best for their current group of 4th/5th starters. Rather than relying on two of Jones/Priester/Ortiz/Contreras/Falter for 5-6 innings per start, they can piece together starts from the group. The success rate for all of these guys finding consistency in the majors will be much better if they’re only expected to pitch 3-4 innings max per appearance, rather than 5-6 or more.
This bullpen approach would require a reliable bullpen and consistent lineup, and the Pirates have both.
If the Pirates go with an Opener strategy, they could keep four of Jones, Priester, Ortiz, Contreras, Falter, Stratton, Anderson, Peralta, or Honeywell Jr. Many of those players would likely cycle in and out of the relief mix throughout the season. They could also turn to minor league options like Braxton Ashcraft or Kyle Nicolas. Some of those pitchers might gain value throwing 2-3 innings per appearance in relief, rather than the all-or-nothing approach of a six-inning starter versus a single-inning reliever. This setup would also benefit Lauer and German when they are ready to return. I would even use Skenes in a limited, opener-fueled role, to keep his innings 2024 limited during his first full pro season.
From the start of the season, the opener strategy for me would look like Jones and Priester in the rotation, with Ortiz and Contreras in the bullpen throwing multiple innings. That would subject out-of-options Falter to waivers, unless he made the team as a lefty reliever over Fleming/Hernandez. That spot would be best used to cycle in fresh arms. This would leave a Triple-A depth group of Lauer, German, Anderson, Peralta, Honeywell, and Skenes. I would imagine such a setup would involve a lot of revolving doors in and out of Triple-A, but the hope would be that a full-six-inning starter would emerge from this group by the end of 2024. Aside from Skenes.
Filling Out the Team
The bench looks straightforward. The Pirates signed Grandal for behind the plate. He’s expected to be more a starter splitting time with Davis, rather than a backup. Grandal has been hurt this spring, and Jason Delay should make the team as the backup to Davis to start the year. I like Delay as a solid MLB backup, and if Davis can handle the starting role, this will be a good 1-2 combo. The return of Grandal will help to alleviate the pressure on Davis to instantly be a 20-30+ home run daily starting catcher.
Connor Joe can play all over the field, and will likely get 400+ plate appearances. With the additions of Tellez and Taylor, Joe is now in a full bench role, which is where I think he would be on a contending roster. As the primary guy off the bench, Joe gives the Pirates a high-OBP bat who can play multiple positions.
The remaining two bench spots would go to the backup infield and outfield roles. Edward Olivares showed some promising numbers in a small sample size with Kansas City last year, while Joshua Palacios was clutch in his time off the bench with the Pirates. With Joe and McCutchen also on the roster, the Pirates can choose a specialist here from their 6th/7th outfield options. Olivares could be the righty in a platoon with Suwinski, or Palacios could be a lefty bat off the bench.
As mentioned above, the second base position will likely come down to a battle between Peguero and Triolo, with the remaining player making the bench and likely getting starts. I’d expect Triolo to get time all over the field. The versatility from Joe, Triolo, and Ji Hwan Bae when healthy, will help the Pirates maintain a level of consistency from their position player group.
The Pirates have Gilberto Celestino and Billy McKinney battling for the outfield, but they’re the 8th/9th best options, or 6th/7th if you’re optimistic of either player. Alika Williams and Nick Gonzales are both middle infield options, but they’re both lower on the depth charts. Williams stands out with his ability to play shortstop, but has questions at the plate, like Gonzales. This group of four players creates a foundation of depth in Indianapolis. In the past, I feel like the Pirates would be relying on one of these guys to step up as a starter.
This definitely looks like the strongest team in years, on paper.
One Area of Question
The Pirates have consistency across their roster. The lineup could see a consistent group each night. The top three rotation spots and five bullpen spots are locked in. The bench looks like the type of reserve group you’d see supporting a contending team. There is depth on both sides in Triple-A. The biggest area of question comes with the final two rotation spots, and the final bullpen spots.
With consistency across the roster, and depth in the minors to support that consistency, the Pirates are in good position to have a revolving door/opener strategy for their final two rotation spots.
This would likely impact the choices for the final 2-3 bullpen spots, catering to multi-inning relievers. It could also mean that all of the pitchers currently competing for the rotation are candidates to make the roster.
More importantly, I think the path for guys like Jones and Priester from the minors to success as big league starters would be easier with the half step. If they’re only expected to go 3-4 innings, rather than 5-6, the pressure would be lowered and their approach would adjust. Once they show they can handle 3-4 innings at a time, the team could start extending them out to full MLB starters.
The normal approach is to throw both young pitchers into the big leagues and hope they immediately stick as 6+ inning starters. This is the approach that Mitch Keller took, and it took him nearly 40 starts before he started putting together 150+ inning seasons with an above-average ERA.
It’s a big ask for Jones, Priester, or any other young pitcher to enter the league pitching 150 innings with an above-average ERA. Under an opener strategy, the Pirates might get that positive ERA production in 100-120 innings from each pitcher. They have enough stability across the rest of the team to dedicate four pitchers to two start days.
Regardless of how they handle those two rotation spots, this team looks like one of the best Pirates clubs in years, with a lot of promise spread throughout this roster. I can see a winning season in 2024, and possibly a sleeper contender.
THIS WEEK ON PIRATES PROSPECTS
The site returned from hiatus at the end of last week, breaking down the Spring Breakout game, and debuting a new Statcast Heroes feature.
This week will launch the premium article drops, which was a feature on this site in 2022. Every Tuesday, I’ll be releasing six premium articles. These will mostly be player features, with the first two weeks allowing me to unload some stories I wanted to write over the offseason. The first article drop of the year takes place tomorrow, with six new premium articles hitting the site.
To access these articles, you’ll need to be a supporter on Patreon.
I actually converted Pirates Prospects to a subscription site about nine years ago to this day. The biggest downside was the amount of effort it took to maintain subscription and payment issues for several thousand people. This time around, I’m setting a reasonable goal of 1,000 subscribers this year, but I’m also offloading the subscription maintenance to Patreon. You’ll be able to access the premium articles on this site, using your Patreon/Pirates Prospects login.
My goal is to be publishing something daily. First Pitch will run on Sundays. The Prospect Watch will run on Monday, providing a weekly take on the classic feature that tracks minor league results. Tuesdays will have the Article Drop. My Column will normally run on Wednesday. Statcast Heroes will run on Thursday. A new version of Roundtable will run on Friday, where I turn to the subscribers for their opinions. I’ll have a Saturday Sleepers article, each week highlighting a player lower in the system rankings who stands out.
This week, my only goal is to ensure that the first article drop goes smoothly. I’ll have a few free articles, but I’ll be taking a few days off from publishing. It’s Spring Training for me as well. You’ve got to get that fastball locked in before working the offspeed. Or, in terms of running a site, you need to publish the revenue-generating content before expanding the free stuff.
I’m also setting up a free daily newsletter, which will be the new P2Daily update to keep you in the loop with what’s happening around the Pirates’ organization, and what’s happening on the site. It might even have a song of the day.
FUQUAY VINYL PLAYLIST OF THE WEEK
At the outset of this Pirates “build”, I wasn’t sure if I wanted to remain as a sports writer. I had a plan to open a record store at two different points. I have a fictional novel series I’ve been working on. In fact, the previous “Fuquay Vinyl” playlists have been writing session material, based on whatever moods and inspirations I was seeking that week. This time around, it’s more reactive. I listen to music all the time, so I’m going to share a playlist each week that I would rate “plus”. This playlist needs to positively brighten my day with some great music. Typically it’s a playlist that sparks the feeling of freedom, where I can be productive and creative. The playlist below was last Sunday, as I was going through the final stages of creating the new version of Pirates Prospects on the new servers.
