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Prospect Watch: Pirates Prospects For The Spring Breakout Win

Prospect Watch

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Reading time: 11 min.

If there’s one thing you can say for certain about the Pittsburgh Pirates’ farm system, it’s that they are deep with pitching prospects. From the best pitching prospect in the game, through several other top 100 arms, and down to interesting arms in A-ball, this team has velocity, spin, and left-handed deception for days at each level.

This was all on display Thursday night in MLB’s truly genius idea to televise an all-prospects game between two teams in Spring Training. These players will all be going to different levels throughout the season, but this night was a rare occasion when so many top 30 prospects could be seen on the same field.

The Pirates Prospects beat the Orioles Prospects by a 3-1 score. I don’t want to slight the “Young Bucs” brand that the Pirates use, but this continues a long tradition of winning from anyone using the name “Pirates Prospects”.

Below is a recap of the Pirates prospects who stood out the most to me, the owner and creator of Pirates Prospects, in the inaugural Spring Breakout game.

Paul Skenes, RHP

The top prospect in the Pirates system, and the first overall pick in 2023, Paul Skenes delivered a 1-2-3 inning, striking out two, getting five whiffs, and hitting triple digits with his fastball six times.

The highlight from Skenes was striking out Orioles top prospect Jackson Holliday chasing on a 91.6 MPH slider, after fighting back with a 3-1 slider over the plate to get Holliday swinging at strike two. Skenes also used his changeup in the at-bat, getting a foul ball on a 2-0 pitch. It was a bold approach to fight back with offspeed against the best hitting prospect in the game. Skenes showed confidence in his secondary stuff, beyond just the velocity of his fastball. As for that velocity, Holliday said it looked like Skenes was throwing 110 MPH.

 

Skenes will begin the year in the minors, which makes sense. He has yet to pitch on a five-day schedule, which is different from the college approach of preparing each week to pitch on the same day. In the Major Leagues, weeks are measured in five-day rotations, not seven, and they revolve around the best pitcher on the staff. Skenes made Thursday night’s inning look like he was still pitching against college competition, with the positive disclaimer that he was pitching against some of the top prospects in the game. He’s shown the ability to carry that intensity and velocity deep into starts on the seven day schedule. His biggest focus will be adjusting to a five-day life against upper-level pro hitters.

Once he’s ready on the five-day schedule, Skenes looks like he could be one of the best arms for the Pirates rotation. His fastball was electric, but that offspeed stuff will play in the big leagues. He will likely be on an innings limit in year one of his pro career, so expect that to also play into his overall usage and progression. The Super Two debates in May could be the straw which finally breaks Pirates Twitter.

Bubba Chandler, RHP

I wrote about Bubba Chandler this month in Baseball America for their top 100 prospects issue. You should definitely pick up a copy, and read about the number 59 prospect in the game in Chandler, with the bonus memory that Paul Skenes struck out the guy on the cover.

What stood out to me in the two interviews that led to this article was the honesty from Chandler. He’s matter-of-fact in his speech and critique about his game, but he’s also backed it up. He’s also fearless on the mound, with the intensity of a closer every inning. He finished the 2023 season with a 1.66 ERA across 48.2 innings over his final nine starts, including five shutout innings in Altoona.

Chandler pitched the seventh and final inning in the Breakout game, averaging 96.9 with his fastball and getting five whiffs on the pitch. He threw the fastball primarily, using his cutter (line out), changeup and curveball (ball one, ball two) one time each. Chandler went 0-2 against Creed Williams, before hitting him with a 98.9 MPH fastball that got away. All three of his fastballs to Williams were 98-99 MPH. He went 2-0 to Thomas Sosa, using the remaining offspeed pitches for the first time. Chandler battled back with four straight fastballs against Sosa, all of these in the 96-97 MPH range. Three of those generated swings and misses, including his lone strikeout.

It was only a single inning each, but the looks at Chandler and Skenes show why they are both top 100 prospects, and why Skenes is the best pitching prospect in the game. They both attacked with visible intensity on the mound. Skenes has the triple-digit fastball, but Chandler matched him in whiffs at the end of the night, and was more effective with a lower velocity. Skenes used his offspeed effectively, and fearlessly to fight back in counts. Chandler fought back with a tremendous amount of controlled power.

Last year was the first year for Chandler as a full-time pitcher. You can expect to see him pitching in Altoona this year, where he will have a good opportunity to work in his offspeed stuff every five days. The comparison of Skenes and Chandler is an interesting one. Skenes has the MLB stuff, and needs to adjust to the MLB schedule. Chandler adjusted to the MLB schedule last year, but needs to finish developing his MLB stuff against upper-level players.

Braxton Ashcraft, RHP

Speaking of MLB stuff, I’ve been impressed by Braxton Ashcraft all spring. Thursday’s inning from him was just another example of what makes him one of the best prospects in the system. Ashcraft returned from Tommy John last year, and brought with him controlled upper-90s velocity and an upper-80s slider, both of which were plus offerings. He threw 96 on Thursday, with an 89 MPH slider that had three called strikes. He also threw one curveball and one changeup.

Ashcraft was limited last year in his return from surgery, never pitching more than four innings and getting shut down by early August. Under normal Tommy John progression, he would spend the 2024 season getting back to pitching on the five-day schedule with zero restrictions. He’s looked like he could be ready right now as a reliever in the majors who relies on the fastball/slider combo. I could also see him factoring into an Opener strategy early in the season, where he wouldn’t be relied upon for more than 3-4 innings at the MLB level.

Jack Brannigan, 3B

Jack Brannigan hit one of the furthest shots of the night, with his sacrifice fly in the first inning traveling 331 feet to left field, giving the Pirates an early lead. He also dealt with the highest exit velocity of the game. In the third inning, Jackson Holliday lined a pitch 100.2 MPH to third base, where Brannigan effortlessly snagged the liner out of the air and fired to first base for a double play to end the frame.

Brannigan has plus defense at third base, with the ability to play shortstop. The 2022 third rounder also hits for plus power. I had a chance to see him last August, and he was one of the most impressive players on the field, on both sides of the ball. That included when he played shortstop. He also squares up on pitches, and is the type of hitter you want at the plate when there’s a man on third and less than two outs. He’ll be a fun player to watch in the middle of Altoona’s lineup and on the left side of their infield this season.

Hunter Barco, LHP

This was my first look at Hunter Barco, along with a lot of the players from the third inning forward. The Pirates drafted Barco in the second round in 2022 out of Florida, where was regarded as a first round talent who fell due to Tommy John. He returned in a limited role last year, with a 3.44 ERA in 18.1 innings, with 28 strikeouts. Barco should be primed for a full-season schedule this year.

Barco flashed quick arm action from a funky low arm slot, making him about the 15th pitcher in this system who has next-level deception from the left side. His slider to Jackson Holliday got the lineout to Brannigan. The pitch he threw the most was his changeup, which was a very low-spin pitch. The changeup was put in play three times, never resulting in more than a 64 MPH exit velocity.

The comparison of Barco and Chandler is an interesting one. They both led with their own versions of power. For Chandler, that’s a 96-97 MPH fastball with 2280 average RPM. For Barco, that’s an 85-86 MPH changeup with 1031 average RPMs. Power isn’t just velocity, but any pitch which can neutralize an opposing lineup on repeat.

The changeup from Barco generated one whiff and three weak contacts in eight offerings. He threw his sinker five times in the 94-95 MPH range, getting two whiffs from the 2421 average RPM pitch. It also led to two called strikes. Barco threw his slider three times, including the lineout to Brannigan that was his only hard hit. One pitch earlier, he allowed the only hit of the game for the Pirates pitching prospects, on a slider that was bunted in front of the plate. Barco pitched two innings, allowing one hit and striking out one.

The 2024 season will be the first full season of professional pitching for Barco, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him reach Altoona by the end of the season with his deception and mix of pitches.

Khristian Curtis, RHP

Tonight was the first professional game pitched by Curtis, who the Pirates drafted in the 12th round last year, with an above-slot bonus equivalent to late-4th/early-5th round money. The 6′ 5″ right-hander from Arizona State flashed five pitches in his single inning of work, mostly relying on a fastball that averaged 96 MPH with 2366 average spin. His other four pitches also featured around 2200-2600 average RPMs, giving him five pitches that move. The fastball led to three called strikes, and his cutter got his lone whiff. Here are the breakdowns of his pitches, granted with small sample sizes from the first look at Curtis.

Four-Seam x14: 96.0 MPH, 2366 RPM (Averages)

Slider x3: 84.8, 2542

Changeup x2: 85.6, 2198

Cutter x2: 90.3, 2456

Curveball x1: 79.1, 2566

Overall, that’s a good distribution of velocity (79.1-97.6) with half-steps in between every 5 MPH. Curtis walked two, but came away with a scoreless inning.

Patrick Reilly, RHP

While Curtis was paid the equivalent of 4th-5th round money to sign as a later round pick, Reilly was the 5th round pick in 2023. He made his debut last year, featuring 19 strikeouts in 10.2 innings, with eight walks. Working as a reliever, Reilly had control issues, but enough power and a good mix of pitches to get out of any jams.

In the sixth inning, Reilly struck out the side, including a strikeout on an automatic strike. Reilly went full count on the first two batters, getting a foul tip strike on a 96 MPH sinker, and a called strike three on a 96 MPH four-seam fastball. He went 1-2 with a two strike foul to his final batter, before the pitch clock violation. Who would want to enter the box when faced with these averages?

Four-Seam x10: 96.3, 2445

Sinker x2: 94.6, 2357

Cutter x2: 87.6, 2155

Slider x1: 81.7, 2526

Changeup x1: 87.8, 1755

Quick Hits

**Termarr Johnson, taken fourth overall in 2022, delivered a well-placed single through the hole on the left side of the infield in the first. It’s just another example of his advanced feel for hitting, and his ability to make adjustments on the spot in a way that can only be honestly described as true plus contact skills. He’s the guy I’d really like to see in Altoona this year, as his hitting is upper-level advanced, despite him being 19-years-old.

**Lonnie White Jr. had a hard hit single in the first to load the bases, but struck out in his other two attempts. The 2021 second rounder was one of the best hitters in the system in the second half last year. He had an .895 OPS from July through the end of the season, and a .990 OPS starting in August. White should spend most of the 2024 season in Greensboro, with a chance for the former Penn State two-sport commit to hit his way to Altoona by the end of the year.

**Jase Bowen picked up two hits, leading all hitters on the evening. The center fielder hit 23 home runs and stole 24 bases during the 2023 season in High-A Greensboro. He will definitely be in Altoona this summer, with good instincts and a strong arm in center. He’s got power/speed/defense potential and is a top 30 prospect.

**Tony Blanco Jr. is a top 30 sleeper in the lower levels, with a frame to hit for first base power. He picked up a hit in his lone at-bat tonight, poking a 95.7 MPH fastball through a hole in the right side of the infield for a simple single on a 2-2 pitch. The 18-year-old hit .235/.325/.397 in the DSL last year, with five homers and seven doubles in 157 plate appearances.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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