At the outset of Ben Cherington’s tenure as the General Manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates, he insisted the Pirates were entering a “build” and not a “rebuild”. The difference in term seemed to reflect an overall focus for Cherington to build a long-term winner, rather than focusing on the makeup and chances of the active roster.
After five years, the Pirates are entering a season where they might be winners for the first time under Cherington. There have been four drafts under Cherington, with two first overall picks. He traded away the best players from the roster he inherited, while promoting and extending the best prospects from the system he inherited.
To get an idea of how the build is going to this point, here’s a comparison of the 2019 roster — the last one under Neal Huntington — and the 2024 group under Cherington.
Opening Day Rosters
One of the best ways to evaluate this build is to track the teams prior to the start of Cherington’s tenure, compared to the current Opening Day roster. Below is a comparison of the 2019 Opening Day group with the current one. It might be better to compare the end-of-season group from 2019, but for the most part, it was the same group.
CATCHERS
2019 – Francisco Cervelli, Jacob Stallings
2024 – Henry Davis, Yasmani Grandal*
I would say the edge here goes to the 2019 group, in terms of catching skills. In terms of offensive potential, the edge goes to the 2024 group. Stallings remained as the catcher for the first few years of the build, eventually winning a Gold Glove in 2021. He was then traded, in a deal that has so far resulted in Kyle Nicolas in the bullpen. From the 2024 group, Henry Davis was the first overall pick in 2021, making him a core part of this build now and going forward. The Pirates added Grandal this year, but the future catching split is expected to include Endy Rodriguez, who was acquired in one of the Cherington trades.
INFIELDERS
2019 – Josh Bell, Adam Frazier, Erik Gonzalez, Jung Ho Kang, Colin Moran, Kevin Newman
2024 – Rowdy Tellez, Jared Triolo, Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Alika Williams
The edge here goes to the 2024 group, although you could break down each individual position to find advantages for the 2019 group. The upside of Cruz, the potential from Triolo, and the Gold Glove defense and emerging power from Ke’Bryan Hayes are the standouts. Long-term, the biggest impact from the 2019 group came with the Adam Frazier trade, which brought back Jack Suwinski. The trade of Kevin Newman was also shrewd, bringing back the currently injured Dauri Moreta.
OUTFIELDERS
2019 – Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte, Melky Cabrera, JB Shuck
2024 – Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Michael A. Taylor, Edward Olivares
This is almost a push, though you could give the edge to the 2024 group due to youth. Reynolds was a prospect in the Pirates’ system on Opening Day 2019, and Suwinski wasn’t acquired until the trade deadline in 2021, when Frazier was traded away. From the 2019 group, the Pirates traded Marte to begin their build, with Liover Peguero being the big part of the return from that trade.
UTILITY PLAYERS
2019 – Pablo Reyes
2024 – Connor Joe
The edge here goes to Joe, who could be a 1-2 WAR player as the main option off the bench. He had a 1.9 WAR last year in 467 plate appearances as the top depth option. Reyes had 157 plate appearances in 2019, and has been a depth player the last three seasons in the majors. The difference is a contending level utility man, versus a young player trying to make it in the majors in a utility role.
STARTING PITCHERS
2019 – Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove, Chris Archer, Jordan Lyles*
2024 – Mitch Keller, Martin Perez, Jared Jones, Bailey Falter, Marco Gonzales
I would give the edge to the 2019 group. That group made up the bulk of the rebuild trades. The best move was the Joe Musgrove deal, which brought back Endy Rodriguez and David Bednar. The Jameson Taillon trade hasn’t had the same effect, with Roansy Contreras being the best player to emerge from that deal. By the end of this season, the 2024 rotation could look more promising. Jared Jones and Paul Skenes showed why that should be the case in their debuts on Saturday night.
RELIEF PITCHERS
2019 – Felipe Vazquez, Keone Kela, Kyle Crick, Richard Rodriguez, Francisco Liriano, Nick Burdi, Nick Kingham, Steven Brault
2024 – David Bednar, Aroldis Chapman, Ryan Borucki, Luis Ortiz, Roansy Contreras, Josh Fleming, Hunter Stratton, Ryder Ryan
The 2024 bullpen gets the edge, even with injuries to the Opening Day group. This group looks better with Carmen Mlodzinski and Colin Holderman in those final two spots. It’s got depth in the minors, and already suffered a blow with Dauri Moreta going down for the year. The 2019 group had its obvious problems from the closer in 2019, but didn’t have anything close to Chapman, who is the current number two option. The 2019 group was in the early stages of the Nick Burdi comeback. Keone Kela and Kyle Crick were more along the lines of Mlodzinski and Holderman, only with bigger roles. The bullpen had been a strength of the team for years in the 2010s, but declined in 2019. The bullpen is once again a strength of the Pirates’ roster.
Top Prospects
The Pirates current MLB roster has a core of the best prospects from 2019. Likewise, the 2024 list has players who will be core members over the next few years, into the 2029 season.
Here’s a comparison of the average rankings of the top 100 prospects in 2019 and 2024, with the averages taken from the big four prospect rankings (Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, Keith Law).
2019 – Mitch Keller (21.75), Ke’Bryan Hayes (42), Travis Swaggerty (79.25), Oneil Cruz (86)
2024 – Paul Skenes (8), Termarr Johnson (45.25), Jared Jones (58.75), Bubba Chandler (65.5)
Seeing Oneil Cruz ranked fourth among the 2019 group shows that prospect rankings aren’t gospel. The Pirates do have a top ten prospect this time around, as well as three other players who are rated higher than their 2019 counter-parts. The 2019 group was heavy with position players. The 2024 group is stronger with pitching talent. That 2024 group also is missing Anthony Solometo, who graded 80th on a single prospect list this year.
The Pirates are currently relying on Keller, Hayes, and Cruz from that 2019 list. Keller is under control through the 2028 season. Hayes is under control through 2030. Cruz is under control through the 2029 season. This build will heavily rely on those three players.
Skenes and Jones will boost the rotation this year. Termarr Johnson could be a starting second baseman in the next few years, while Bubba Chandler and Anthony Solometo will only work to add quality to the MLB rotation.
Baseball America Top 10
Looking beyond the top 100 prospects, the top ten prospects in the system have changed over the years.
2019 – Mitch Keller, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Travis Swaggerty, Kevin Kramer, Cole Tucker, Kevin Newman, Cal Mitchell, Bryan Reynolds, Jason Martin
2024 – Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, Jared Jones, Termarr Johnson, Anthony Solometo, Thomas Harrington, Tsung-Che Cheng, Quinn Priester, Nick Gonzales, Braxton Ashcraft
Bryan Reynolds at number nine in 2019 stands out. Reynolds is now one of the core members of the team, along with Keller, Hayes, and Cruz. Outside of the top three, the only other player from the 2019 group who amounted to anything long-term for the Pirates was Newman, who brought back Moreta.
The 2024 group obviously has nothing but potential on their side at this point in the comparison. The comparison shows the organization going from a lot of position players in 2019 to a lot of pitchers in 2024. The position players in 2019 were mostly conservative, taking walks, limiting strikeouts, and not hitting for much power. The organizational philosophy has changed to allow for more strikeouts in the name of seeking more power. The pitchers are also taking more of a power approach these days, with less pitch-to-contact and more strikeouts.
Other Notable Top 30 Prospects
2019 – Braxton Ashcraft (14), Clay Holmes (17), Ji Hwan Bae (18), JT Brubaker (27), Jared Triolo (NR), Quinn Priester (NR)
The 2019 top 30 had four other notable players, as it relates to 2024. Braxton Ashcraft remains a top prospect today, after suffering from Tommy John surgery. Clay Holmes had a breakout as a reliever, but unfortunately it came with the Yankees, after he was traded by Cherington in 2021. Ji Hwan Bae is a utility depth option for the Pirates this year. JT Brubaker is returning from Tommy John surgery, and will be a late-season rotation depth option at the big league level. Jared Triolo was drafted 72nd overall in 2019, and finds himself in the majors today as the starting second baseman. Quinn Priester was taken first overall in that draft, and is a rotation depth option this year.
The Results of the Build
I wrote on Thursday that I see the Pirates having an 83-85 win season this year, which would make them winners for the first time since 2018. After a few years of tanking, the Pirates have started to see increases in the win column. It’s difficult to give them credit for the increases from 2020-2022, since they tanked at the start of this build (resulting in two first overall picks), and the goal is winning.
If they reach that goal of a winning record this year, it would be a positive sign. The MLB team has a young core emerging, with most of the best players under control for the next 5+ seasons. If this 2024 roster is a winner, it will be with a team that still has room to grow, and will be together in Pittsburgh for plenty of years.
The Pirates have a chance to be winners again, and for longer than their stretch in 2013-15. You could technically say that their window extended from 2013-18, with four winning seasons and three playoff appearances in six years. The team was trying to contend in 2016 and 2017. They didn’t have a singular focus on winning in the majors, which led to a wild card push every season.
If this build is ultimately going to be successful, it will see the Pirates being consistent contenders for the NL Central, rather than constantly trying to sneak into the Wild Card round. I don’t see that happening in 2024, but with the right progression this year, the right prospect performances, and the right free agent additions next offseason, I could see a division chase on the near-horizon.
Last Week on Pirates Prospects
Pirates Prospects isn’t made possible without your support. The best way to support the site is to subscribe to the premium article drops every Tuesday. For just $5 per month, you get access to the best features on the site. This past week looked at six prospects in the top 10 of the system. Next week will feature the return of the site’s prospect rankings.
**Paul Skenes Predicts the Pirates Will Be Winning For a Long Time
The 2023 first overall pick, number one pitching prospect in the game, and number one prospect in the Pirates’ system is expected to arrive in Pittsburgh this summer. Paul Skenes notes that he’s only one man, and feels the Pirates have enough talent to win for a long time.
**Jared Jones Forces the Pirates Hand
After an impressive Spring Training, Jared Jones has made the Pirates’ Opening Day rotation. This was far from a guarantee at the start of camp, but the performance from Jones and the development of his secondary stuff was enough to force the Pirates to make a decision.
**Termarr Johnson Just Wants to Win, Including One Day in Pittsburgh
The Pirates drafted Termarr Johnson fourth overall in 2022, and the 19-year-old infielder has shown advanced contact abilities, plate patience, and surprising power. He also has a competitive drive, wanting to win everywhere he goes, including one day in Pittsburgh.
**Bubba Chandler Shows Advanced Maturity Entering Third Pro Season
After a break to reset in the middle of 2023, Bubba Chandler had some of the best numbers in the Pittsburgh Pirates system in the second half. The right-handed pitcher continues to progress this spring, working on his changeup while bringing a mature approach to his game.
Tsung-Che Cheng is no stranger to international competition and playing in front of large crowds. He also has some of the best contact skills in the Pirates’ system, and walks to the plate playing “Fast Car” by Luke Combs. Read about the man nicknamed “Z”.
**Lonnie White Jr. Shows a Competitive Drive and Quick Learning Ability
Lonnie White Jr. was drafted 64th overall in 2021, signing with the Pirates rather than going to Penn State as a two-sport athlete. Injuries slowed the start of his career, but he returned in 2023, with some of the best numbers in the system during the second half.
FREE Features
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Monday – Prospect Watch: One Hitter and One Pitcher to Follow At Every Level
Tuesday – Article Drop (See Above)
Wednesday – Williams: The Pirates Are Setting Positive Precedent For Their Prospects
Thursday – Pirates Roundtable: Giving a Voice to Pittsburgh Pirates Fans
Thursday – Williams: The Pittsburgh Pirates Will End Their Five Year Losing Streak in 2024
Friday – Statcast Heroes: Power, Relief, and Swing and Miss in Opening Day Pirates Win
Saturday – Saturday Sleepers: Omar Alfonzo is a Catching Prospect to Follow
Sunday – First Pitch (Reading)
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- Jared Jones and Paul Skenes Were Electric in Their Debuts
- Pirates Win Again, Trade JT Brubaker, Indianapolis Begins Season
- Pirates Win Opener in Extra Innings
This Week on Pirates Prospects
Minor League baseball begins this week at the Double-A and A-ball levels at the end of the week. I’ll have my top prospect rankings released on Tuesday, along with the previews of all of the individual teams.
Fuquay Vinyl Playlist
This week’s playlist helped me relax after producing that article drop last week. “Scientists and Engineers” by Killer Mike and Andre 3000 was the standout song.
