Jared Jones throws an elite fastball, an elite slider, and showed promise with his curveball and changeup development this spring.
He’s a top 100 prospect. He’s a rookie of the year candidate from the start of the season. These are not players you usually see on the Pittsburgh roster on Opening Day.
I can’t recall a time when a prospect the quality of Jones began his season in the Pirates. People are typically talking about players like Jones right now in terms of years of control, or Super Two status — trying to project a future date when he might arrive.
The players in the organization are people, too.
They see the same thing we do on the outside. For years, if you were a top prospect in the Pirates’ system, you saw example after example of the Pirates refusing to call up a player when they might be ready. Because what is “ready” when development continues in the majors?
Jones answered that this spring.
When you’ve got a pitcher with an upper 90s fastball that hits triple-digits, along with plus breaking stuff, you dream about what he could become in the majors one day. The odds that Jones immediately reaches his upside as a pitcher aren’t impossible, but they are improbable. The fact that he was working on the weaker parts of his game, and still getting results against MLB lineups, shows that he’s ready to continue his development at the big league level.
Prospects in this organization will see this roster move, and their probability meters will adjust. In future years, when the Pirates are giving opportunities in camp, those prospects will know that making the team isn’t impossible… but probably still improbable. Jared Jones had to be elite in performance to get this promotion, and it was still only across 16 innings. That’s the type of performance where you want to see if it will carry over into the regular season. And if it does, for how long will Jones keep up a consistent level of positive MLB production? Weeks? Months? Years?
We’re about to find out.
*****
Mitch Keller signed an extension with the Pirates at the start of camp, which will eventually make him one of the highest paid players in an individual season in franchise history.
Keller is being paid $77 million over the next five years. He’ll be making salaries of $15-20 million dollars per year from 2025-2028. Prior to this, the largest deal for a pitcher in franchise history was Francisco Liriano, at three years and $39 million.
Bryan Reynolds previously signed a $100 million extension. Ke’Bryan Hayes signed a $70 million extension. In all of these cases, the Pirates rewarded players who performed in the majors, across multiple seasons.
That’s important for young players who are just breaking into the big leagues. Keller, in particular, improved three years in a row. He focused on his development with pitch selection, while also improving his performance each year. It’s been the same thing with Ke’Bryan Hayes, adjusting with his bat while adding power to his game, and winning his first Gold Glove. The Pirates have asked Reynolds to move all around the outfield, and he’s done it while maintaining a consistent base level of performance each year.
Eventually, the Pirates will have Reynolds and Keller making a combined $30 million per year. Hayes signed a front-loaded contract, so he will be making $7-8 million in those same years. The question will eventually be whether the Pirates keep any of these players on the roster through the end of their deals. If these three lead the Pirates to winning, will the Pirates keep them around, and for how long? Reynolds is currently signed through his age 35 season. Hayes is signed through age 33. Keller is signed through age 32.
For a new MLB player like Jones, those deals represent the chance of future stability. Aside from the life changing money, the knowledge that you’ll be pitching in one place until at least your early 30s, before the team trades you for the next-next guy. Reynolds, for example, came to the Pirates in the Andrew McCutchen trade, with the Pirates sending away McCutchen with two years remaining on his extension. They’ve since brought back McCutchen, and are setting a precedent that he is a Pirate until he retires.
Perhaps Hayes gets the same treatment after multiple Gold Gloves in his career, but without the trade? We’ll see, years in the future.
*****
The prospects trying to make the big leagues see the never-ending money saving techniques, and it has to impact them.
The young players in the majors are seeing a trend with Reynolds/Hayes/Keller which is breaking the idea that they will only be in Pittsburgh temporarily.
Most importantly, the fans are getting to see the best players for a long period of time. They know that if they spend $175 on a Nike jersey, then the name written in horribly executed font and spacing on the back will be a name that remains in Pittsburgh for years to come.
When Pirates fans go to the ballpark this year, they want to know that the ticket price paid and the expensive food purchased will also come with the chance to relax and be entertained by the best players the team could offer.
This is still an organization that sent down Paul Skenes, but I do think there’s a legitimate claim to having him get used to pitching in pro ball in the minors. That said, at some point this summer, Pirates fans will be able to go to PNC Park and watch Skenes as one of two guys who throws 100 MPH, or they’ll see Keller with his vast arsenal, or they’ll watch one of two crafty lefties set the pace for the offense. They’ll be able to see Hayes and his defense at third. They’ll be able to see Oneil Cruz and Henry Davis join Bryan Reynolds at the plate, with the chance to see live one of at least 80 home runs from that trio this year.
Compared to previous years, from my perspective, there are a lot of incentives to turn on the Pirates and let them consume my evening several nights per week. I would even want to make my way to PNC Park at some point to experience the live energy of watching a 100 MPH fastball repeatedly in person.
The Pirates have had a development problem and a fan problem. In each case, they need to build up trust with the respective groups by departing from the money-saving methods which broke the trust down.
Jones being in the majors will help in a big way. Keller as the latest productive player to get an extension helps in a big way.
The Pirates emerging as surprise contenders in 2024 would help in the biggest way.
I think this team could be in the 82-87 win range, contending for a Wild Card, and at the very least providing interesting baseball to follow for the next six months.
I also think we could see improvements in the development results, due to the positive examples of change emerging at the big league level.
If that happens, this Pirates organization could be consistent winners for a long time.
