I was at Pirate City this weekend, getting a look at some of the prospects in the system, while getting a feel for where everyone might start their years. At this point, the rosters aren’t officially announced, as the final MLB cuts could impact some of the upper-level assignments, with a trickle-down impact.
Based on what I’ve seen, and what I’d comfortably project, here is a hitter and a pitcher to follow at every level of this system this year.
Triple-A: Indianapolis Indians
Liover Peguero – Peguero isn’t a prospect, but there also aren’t many true prospects at this level. If you’re looking for a true prospect to follow, Matt Gorski is an interesting guy with the chance to be a power/speed center fielder. Peguero has the highest upside of any position player. The issue is that he hasn’t maintained his consistency in applying his talents. As an example of how this plays out in the stats, he hit seven home runs in his MLB debut last year, but also struck out at a 31.5% rate. He wasn’t always on his game. When he gets locked into the game full-time, he’ll start producing consistent results. He’s got the talent to be an above-average regular in the majors, and just needs to consistently use that talent, every minute of every game.
Paul Skenes – It’s not confirmed yet that Skenes will begin his season in Triple-A, but he’s been pitching with the Indianapolis group. He’ll be the obvious guy to watch here, in a pitching staff that will otherwise mostly include older veteran depth and a few interesting relief options. Skenes will be working on adjusting to the five-day schedule, while also continuing to refine his pitch mix for the big leagues. He’s throwing a five pitch mix in pro ball, led by his triple-digit fastball and plus slider. I’d expect him up by mid-season, and the Super Two discussion is likely going to break Pirates internet during the month of May.
Double-A: Altoona Curve
Jack Brannigan – Altoona has probably the best overall prospect group in the organization this year. There are a lot of interesting players to follow on both sides of the ball. Termarr Johnson would be my pick for a hitter to follow, if I knew for certain that he was going to Double-A. He’s been working with that upper-level group, and definitely has the hitting aptitude to face upper level talent. Outside of Johnson, I’m focused on Jack Brannigan. He’s got plus defense at both positions on the left side of the infield, with an ability to play second base. At the plate, he’s got plus raw power, and perhaps sells out to that power approach too much. Watching his attempt for balance at the plate, while maintaining plus defense in the field, will be one of the highlights in Altoona this year.
Bubba Chandler – In the second half last year, Chandler was one of the best pitchers in the entire organization. His run of nine starts concluded with five shutout innings in his Double-A debut. Chandler will return to the level this year, and if he picks up where he left off at the end of 2023, he won’t finish the season in Double-A. He might have a chance to finish the season in Pittsburgh, even if it’s only for a brief preview. Altoona has a lot of talented pitchers to follow, and Chandler leads this talented group.
High-A: Greensboro Grasshoppers
Lonnie White – With a .990 OPS from August to the end of the season, Lonnie White was one of the best hitters in the system down the stretch in 2023. His success came during his first real playing time in pro ball, after being drafted in 2021 and suffering a few minor injuries over the following two years. White has an advanced bat, with a lot of power potential from an athletic frame. His success came in a small sample, and it will be difficult to evaluate further success in Greensboro. That said, he’s one of the most talented players in the lower levels, and could emerge this year as one of the best hitting prospects in the entire system.
Alessandro Ercolani – The right-handed pitcher from San Marino turns 20 next month, and is coming off a year where he put up a 4.43 ERA and a 24% strikeout rate in 65 innings in Single-A. He’s got a four pitch mix, with a fastball that averages 94, a mid-80s cutter, a mid-80s changeup, and a low-80s slider. He generated a 23% whiff rate or higher on all of those pitches. His sinker/cutter combo is something to watch in the more advanced levels, and the fact he throws a changeup and a slower slider with effectiveness makes him a guy to watch every five days.
Single-A: Bradenton Marauders
Estuar Suero – The Pirates added Suero in the trade last year that sent Rich Hill and Ji Man Choi to San Diego. While three players came back in that deal, the now 18-year-old Suero was the main target. I had a chance to see him in person on Saturday. He’s got a tall frame with an athletic build which projects for plus power along with plus speed. Suero hit five homers in 218 plate appearances in the FCL at the age of 17, while flashing good, but inconsistent plate patience. He should get the aggressive assignment to Single-A this year, and is one of the most promising younger players in the lower levels to follow in that journey.
Khristian Curtis – The Pirates drafted Curtis in the 12th round last year, giving him an above-slot deal that paid 4th/5th round money. He made his debut in the Spring Breakout game, where the 6′ 5″ right-hander from Arizona State flashed five pitches in his single inning of work. He mostly relied on a fastball that averaged 96 MPH with 2366 average spin. His other four pitches also featured around 2200-2600 average RPMs, giving him five pitches that move. Curtis likely won’t spend the entire season in Bradenton, but he and Magdiel Cotto (2023 11th round over-slot prep pitcher) will be guys to watch in the first half as they get adjusted to pro ball.
