Normally, I do a pre-season analysis, where I fill in my own depth chart and playing time estimates for the upcoming Pittsburgh Pirates season, along with ZiPS projected WAR totals. This year, I’m looking at the ZiPS Depth Chart projections with no adjustments. Maybe it’s my old age getting to me, but for the most part, those playing time estimates looked good.
If you pick the players who are expected to fill out the roster and bench, as well as the top depth options, you get a team with about 32 WAR. Depending on your view of a replacement level team’s baseline wins, this projects out to an 80-82 WAR season.
The top five performers under this study:
Mitch Keller – 3.1 WAR in 186 IP
Ke’Bryan Hayes – 2.9 WAR in 609 PA
Bryan Reynolds – 2.7 WAR in 644 PA
Oneil Cruz – 2.4 WAR in 588 PA
Martin Perez – 2.3 WAR in 155 IP
I wouldn’t argue against any of those projections. All of them look reasonable. The downside is that there aren’t any elite performers projected, getting above a 3.0 WAR. The Pirates would need that production to have a winning season and have a shot at the playoffs.
What I like about the ZiPS team projections is they have a 20th/80th percentile projection. To get an idea of the most likely impact potential on this team, here are the potential players who could exceed 3.0 WAR, along with their 80th percentile stat projections.
Bryan Reynolds – 4.2 (.290/.369/.499, 136 OPS+)
The biggest year from Reynolds saw a 6.0 WAR in 2021. The above 80th percentile would put him a little higher than the midpoint between his 2021 and 2022/2019 production levels. The ZiPS depth chart has him performing like the last two seasons, which is a solid, consistent base. The 80th percentile gets him closer to the 2021 results. He’s performed to a higher degree than the 80th percentile, so this isn’t out of the question.
Ke’Bryan Hayes – 3.8 (.283/.339/.440, 114)
In the second half last year, Hayes batted .299/.335/.539. If he repeats that, with the increased power production, he could exceed even the 80th percentile ZiPS projections. I would safely project Hayes to exceed 3.0 WAR this year.
Jack Suwinski – 3.7 (.266/.376/.535, 144)
This seems unlikely, compared to the previous two. Suwinski had a .339 OBP last year, with a 32.2% strikeout rate. The idea that he jumps to .376 would require a massive drop in strikeouts. Perhaps that could be achieved by platooning him, and reducing his worst outings. He had a slugging percentage of .454 last year, due to a .224 average. The 80th percentile projects more hits and another boost in power. Against right-handers only, Suwinski batted .232/.353/.503 last year. If the Pirates use him in a platoon role, he could get close to these numbers.
Mitch Keller – 3.6 (3.59 ERA)
Just by the ERA result, Keller has a career high 3.91 mark, with a 4.21 ERA last year. He has increasing better FIP results, which is more predictive to the pitcher skill. That has gone from 4.30 to 3.88 to 3.80 in the last three seasons. The idea that he could improve to a 3.59 ERA isn’t out of the question. He had a 3.31 ERA last year in the first half, then struggled in the second half, especially after losing his almost personal catcher Austin Hedges. I could see Keller reaching this mark by sustaining his first half performance over a full year.
Oneil Cruz – 3.5 (.275/.342/.501, 128)
This is where everyone is going to dream. Cruz doesn’t even have a full season in the majors, and has a combined .237/.302/.449 line in 410 plate appearances. In a very small sample of 40 plate appearances last year, he batted .250/.375/.375. This spring, he upped the power, with an impressive .739 slugging. It’s hard to say what to expect. I do think that a 3.5 WAR would be a healthy high-end expectation when considering the first full season aspect. I also think he’s got a great shot at locking in the 2.4 WAR from the depth chart.
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If the Pirates got just those five 80th percentile results, adding to the depth chart projections, they’d be projected for an 86-88 win team.
If you wanted to really have fun and be optimistic on Opening Day, you could enter an 80th percentile for all of the starters in this stable looking lineup and rotation. That would make this a 98-100 win team. That’s probably too optimistic, even for Opening Day, but the reality is that the Pirates have a lot of upside potential with their young core.
Here are some of the most interesting 80th percentile results:
Henry Davis – 2.7 (.269/.364/.467, 125)
Davis had a .302 OBP and a .351 slugging in his rookie season. This 80th percentile projection would require more patience at the plate. What I like in my limited view of Davis from spring is that he has a more measured looking approach at the plate, reducing the aggressive big cuts. Scaling back his power approach might actually lead to more power, resulting in the above numbers.
Jared Triolo – 2.4 (.272/.350/.393, 103)
Triolo exceeded these numbers last year, with the help of a .440 BABIP. He had a 30% strikeout rate with that fortunate balls in play profile. He’s a high line drive hitter, with limited fly balls, so his BABIP will be higher, though he’s at a difficult pace to maintain. If he can find a way to put more in play, that would offset the reduction of more of his BIP likely resulting in outs in 2024. Then again, he just had a .423 BABIP in spring, after a .411 in Triple-A last year. Maybe he’s just selling out to his elite focus. Having him at second base rather than third will save his focus and energy for the plate more often.
Jared Jones – 2.2 (3.92 ERA)
Jones is shaping up to be one of my favorite stories to follow this year. Saturday will normally be my day off from baseball during the week, but there’s no way I’m taking a day off this Saturday with Jones making his debut. Having a 3.92 ERA might be asking a lot for a rookie. He had a 3.98 FIP in Triple-A last year, and a 3.37 FIP in Spring Training this year, so it’s not out of the question. This should be a high-end expectation.
Bailey Falter – 2.0 (3.93 ERA)
Luis Ortiz – 2.1 (4.10)
I laughed when seeing ZiPS grade Falter so high, because nothing last year, nor in Spring Training, showed that he could reach this 80th percentile. His addition to the rotation was a surprise. He did have a 3.86 ERA with a 4.65 FIP in 2022. He had a 3.79 FIP in 2021, with a 5.61 ERA. He was better last year as a reliever, but not this good. He’s starting this year, with first inning issues last year, but a career 3.93 first time through the order ERA. There it is. If you’re looking for hope from Falter, it’s that in his career, he’s good facing everyone once. Luis Ortiz, meanwhile, has a 3.18 ERA in his first time through the order as a reliever, which is in a sample size of just 5.2 innings. A short hook for Falter and extended length from Ortiz might get the Pirates through five innings with a combined ERA below 4.00, and maybe the best from both pitchers.
David Bednar – 2.1 (2.40 ERA)
I honestly feel like Bednar is a lock for this level of performance, as long as he maintains health. He’s got a 2.25 ERA over the last three seasons, with a 2.56 FIP. If there’s anyone who should be extended next, it’s him.
Paul Skenes – 1.9 (4.13 ERA)
Somewhere in The Joker’s lair in Indianapolis, a social media intern is hopefully carefully arranging a month of tweets that begin with the letters PAULSKENESHASBEENEXTENDEDBYTHEPIRATESFORTENYEARS or something along those lines, prior to his anticipated callup. If you’re looking to set a reasonable ceiling of expectation for his potential rookie season, then a 1.9 WAR and a 4.13 ERA would be in the proper range.
*****
I made one prediction, and it was in the 82-87 win range. If I had to narrow that down, I could see the Pirates getting 83-85 wins. This is a team with a lot of upside potential, and an emerging young core, just getting used to playing in the big leagues. There aren’t many potential negative zones on this roster, and there are a lot of spots where you could envision a player out-performing his current 50th percentile projections.
This could be the first winning season by the Pirates since 2018, and the first time they push for the playoffs in September since 2015.
It’s going to be an exciting season to follow.
