From my viewpoint, Jared Triolo silently represents so many things that are not yet widely understood about the mindset of hitting. Especially, how offense relates to defense.
I had a chance to watch Triolo extensively in late 2022 in Altoona. Sitting on the first base side for photos, one thing that stood out to me to this day was the focus from the third baseman. Triolo would stare at the pitcher until the pitcher started to move. He’d then immediately shift his focus to the plate. This preparation and intense active focus is what makes Triolo a two-time minor league Gold Glove winner. He’d be the best candidate in the Pirates’ system for the long-term role if they didn’t already have MLB Gold Glove winning third baseman in Ke’Bryan Hayes. I call Triolo “luxury depth” because there should be zero conversation about who should be at third base in the majors. For the purposes of this article, I’m talking about him as a third baseman.
Triolo’s active focus time is tested more than any other player on the field at third. I had a chance to see Triolo in the majors this past July when Hayes was out. Triolo was consistently the first player in active position, feet landing on the dirt, ready for a reactive play. This mindset and focus is required of a third baseman. Their reaction could be the difference between a hard groundout and a double down the third base line. And yet, they also have to adjust from this react-first approach in an instant on a slow roller, using their body to advance way beyond their normal zone.
From what I’ve seen, Triolo takes this same approach at the plate. He stays back for the reaction play, though he doesn’t always get the extension swings. He tends to be a bit too passive, with a 43.6% swing rate that is below the league average. He has a 48.9% contact rate on pitches outside of the zone, compared to a 62.3% contact rate for the average MLB hitter. Triolo also doesn’t make consistent hard contact, with his 86.6 MPH exit velocity falling below Austin Hedges. You could make an argument that Triolo should swing more, and either lay off outside pitches, or find a way to open himself up more consistently.
Let’s get into the weeds of the third base position for a moment…
TIME AND NANO-FOCUS
Think about the physical aspects of a third baseman when he’s set and ready. They’re usually compact, with a body that is packaged up tight to the core, low to the ground, ready to spring in any direction toward the ball. This reactionary defensive approach is obviously beneficial on the field, but what does it do to the body to be in that position for so long in a game? Triolo, when he’s at third base, is in a defensive, compact position longer than any other player on the field.
As a third baseman, Triolo might go into active mode 1-2 seconds before a corner outfielder. His body also spends more time in a compact position as a result. If there are 150 pitches in a game, then Triolo’s body at third base is going to spend an extra two and a half to five minutes per game in active/compact mode, versus your typical corner outfielder. As a result, Triolo will have less energy available on offense than an outfielder or a player at an easier position.
Triolo stands out in one big area on offense: High Leverage Situations. His 240 wRC+ in 22 high-leverage plate appearances was best on the team among everyone with at least ten such appearances. He’s not bad with medium leverage situations, with a 132 wRC+ in 92 plate appearances, ranking third on the Pirates. Where he struggles is with low-leverage situations, posting a 77 wRC+ in 95 plate appearances, and an elevated strikeout rate.
What’s interesting is that Triolo doesn’t have the strikeout issues in high leverage situations. That comes with the whopping disclaimer that we’re talking about 22 plate appearances across 17 games. Triolo’s strikeout rate in high leverage situations was 18.2%. In those random 22 plate appearances on those random 17 days, Triolo locked in consistently to the moment, in the same overall controlled way that he shows in every single moment at third base.
Or, at least that’s my theory. A player would know when he’s in a high-leverage situation, and would adjust his approach. Triolo’s adjustment actually runs opposite of Hayes. When Triolo is in high-leverage situations, he becomes a more controlled hitter. The swing and miss is down, and he makes a lot of contact. In any other situation, his strikeout rate soars to 31%, and his overall production drops as the leverage index declines.
Hayes, on the other hand, showed improvements this year with his swing and miss in low leverage situations. He struck out 19.3% of the time and had a .795 OPS/110 wRC+ this year. The previous two years, he had strikeout rates in the 23-27% range, with a .650 OPS/75-85 wRC+ range the last two years in low-leverage. Hayes was controlled in medium leverage situations, but became more free swinging in high leverage moments. He struck out 27.5% of the time this year in high leverage, but managed an .854 OPS and a 124 wRC+. That’s up from a .570-.585 OPS range the previous two years, and a 62-70 wRC+.
Let’s assume that a player has X amount of minutes that he can actively focus in a game, while generating productive value from his decision-making. After so much focus, the mind grows tired, the eyes get hazy, and the reaction time slows. Each position requires a different time and focus investment, so to speak. The only position drained mentally on the field more than a third baseman is a catcher. The gap in mind points spent on defense is insurmountable between catchers and any other player, but the gap between third base and any other position is pretty large.
What Hayes showed in 2022 is that he could play in the majors all year, while putting up some of the best defense in the league at third, and posting below-average hitting results. Most people are going to discount the defense and only value the offense, and the hope for Hayes was more offense going forward. In 2023, Hayes maintained the defense, and took a step forward offensively, with more control in low leverage and more production in high leverage.
My thought is that Hayes is seeing his active focus time improving. He had to focus for almost 2300 pitches on offense during the 2022 season, not to mention a few hundred plays he had to make, and the countless pitches he was in active/compact mode for — even if the ball wasn’t hit to him. Every one of those moments requires nano-focus. Every player has X amount of nano-focus in their Iron Man suit each game, and each season. Hayes obviously spent his nano-focus on defense, and in 2022, he did not have enough for his offense. After a year of experience, he returned in 2023 with largely the same Gold Glove quality defense (and won the award this time), but with better production at the plate. Hayes expanded his focus time with the experience of playing time, and was able to bring his Gold Glove eye and energy to the plate more often in 2023.
THE NANO-FOCUS OF JARED TRIOLO
Triolo has yet to play a full season in the majors. He’s played a full season in the minors, but that was Double-A. The amount of nano-focus that you need for a full-season of Double-A pitches, plus a full-season of Double-A plays at third, plus a full-season of Double-A pitch watching from third — it’s lower than what’s needed for the majors. The same can be said across the board for individual games.
In every single game, Triolo can bring the same defensive nano-focus to the majors that made him a minor league Gold Glover. I think what we saw from Triolo in his rookie season was a hard working player who reached to the bottom of the bag for nano-focus bits when the situational leverage was high at the plate. In other situations, he looked like a guy who couldn’t apply the same level of nano-focus on offense as he had on defense. That’s similar to the trend of a younger, less experienced Hayes.
Triolo can play all over the field. I think that his offense will improve greatly if he moves to another position in the majors. This will allow him to dedicate more nano-focus toward his offense, rather than spending it all up at third base. We may have already seen proof of this. Triolo had a .660 OPS as a third baseman this year. He was .944 at second base, and .994 at first base. He went 2-for-3 with a homer as a pinch hitter — when he really had to access that nano-focus. Talk about whopping small sample sizes.
I think Triolo has the ability to dial it in on command, or be “clutch” when the moment is big. He has enough experience at third base in spending more nano-focus per play than any other player. His individual pitch and at-bat capacity is going to be off the charts. That expanded capacity would benefit him at the plate, in theory. His issue seems to be one of overall capacity. I do not think Triolo possesses enough nano-focus right now to play a full season at third base, and still have bits left in the bottom of the focus bag for a full-season of productivity at the plate. He’s spending all of his nano-focus on defense.
Moving Triolo to first or second base would allow him to spend his nano-focus at the plate. He’s already shown in a few small sample sizes that he can dial it in when needed. In theory, if you move him to the right side of the infield, he’s going to have a lot more nano-focus bits to use at the plate, beyond just the high leverage moments. That will raise his productivity in lower-leverage moments.
The Pirates could develop Triolo at third base in a vacuum, and they likely would see him put up strong defense in his first full season, with offense that leaves more to be desired. From there, the hope would be that he maintains the defense, while improving the offense — with no historical clue as to how a player gets from A to B.
In reality, the Pirates don’t need to develop Triolo at third, because Hayes has already arrived at point B. This allows them to develop Triolo at another position, where he will have more nano-focus for the nearly 2,000 pitches he will see at the plate.
Earlier this week, I wrote about the Pirates being connected to first base options. Rhys Hopkins would be the best impact addition you could make to the offense. The Pirates might be better off adding someone like Dom Smith and hoping for a breakout in a DH/1B role, while giving Triolo the bulk of the time at first. Having a guy like Smith on the roster provides depth, as there are no other first base candidates. I think Triolo can be a help to the 2024 offense. I think the Pirates will benefit the most by putting him at a position that requires the fewest nano-points spent on defense, allowing him to easier apply focus to his first full season of MLB hitting.
SONG OF THE DAY
I loved that the Texas Rangers had this and other Creed songs as their no-guilt anthems during their World Series run. I might write one day about why it helped.
