Pittsburgh Pirates starter Johan Oviedo will undergo Tommy John surgery, according to a report by Francys Romero. The starter pitched 177.2 innings in 2023, putting up a 4.31 ERA and a 4.49 FIP. The performance would have locked him in as one of the few reliable starting options the Pirates have.
Without Oviedo, the Pirates currently have just one reliable starting pitcher, and that is Mitch Keller. They’ve got options who could make up at least two bullpen-led spots in the rotation. The loss of Oviedo exacerbates the Pirates’ current need for starting pitching, to the point where it is going to be a necessity to add two starters from the outside.
The timing of Oviedo’s surgery means that he can recover in 2024, and should return to the Pirates for the start of the 2025 season. That will be his age 27 season, and the Pirates will still have him under control through the 2027 season.
Pirates Add Gilberto Celestino
The Pirates have agreed to a minor league deal with outfielder Gilberto Celestino, according to Jason Mackey. Celestino will be in his age 25 season next year, after missing a lot of time in 2023 with a left thumb injury. He suffered an ACL tear, which required surgery in March. Celestino returned in June, and put up a .243/.392/.389 line in 185 at-bats with the Twins’ Triple-A squad.
Celestino arrived in the majors in 2021, and had 311 at-bats in the big leagues in 2022. He’s got a .222/.292/.300 line in 370 career at-bats, with the ability to play all three outfield spots.
The Pirates currently have a starting group that includes Jack Suwinski, Bryan Reynolds, and Henry Davis in the outfield. Their bench options include Connor Joe and Joshua Palacios. Celestino adds to their depth in the minors.
First Base Rumors
Last year, the Pirates made it an early priority to upgrade at first base. They added Ji-Man Choi and Carlos Santana in separate deals by the end of November, upgrading a weakness from their 2022 roster.
Choi and Santana provided that upgrade, but were both traded at the deadline in 2023. The Pirates enter the 2023 season with a higher expectation of production at first base than last offseason, but still the same need.
Because of this need, we’re going to see rumors floating around that are based on logic, and might not necessarily be based on actual talks. As an example, Robert Murray of FanSided points out Rowdy Tellez and Dominic Smith as options who could interest the Pirates. The MLBTR podcast discussed whether the Pirates would sign Rhys Hoskins, or someone cheaper.
Hoskins is currently projected to receive a two year, $36 million deal this offseason. Heading into his age 30 season, Hoskins had a .246/.332/.462 line with 30 homers in 2022, before missing all of 2023 with a torn ACL in his left knee. He was close to returning by the end of the post-season. Hoskins has a career .242/.353/.492 line, and is a danger to hit 25-30 homers every year. Despite the injury, his consistency will get him paid, and it will be an amount higher than the Pirates have paid any player for a single season.
With such an urgent need for starting pitchers, it seems less likely that the Pirates would go that financially heavy on a first baseman for the 2024-25 seasons.
Rowdy Tellez is entering his age 29 season, with a career .233/.304/.446 line. He hit 35 homers in 2022, but that came with a .306 on-base percentage. A huge difference between Tellez and Hoskins is that he’s going to get on base at a much higher rate, while being automatic for that level of power production.
In looking for a silver lining, I noticed that Tellez does have some good decision-making trends. His chase rate in 2023 went down to 27.1% from 31% the year prior. This was the second straight year that Tellez reduced his swings on pitches outside of the zone. Tellez has also been making above-average contact outside of the zone. The same trends exist inside the zone. Tellez has reduced his swinging in the zone to 53.3%, which is well down from the league average of 68.8%. As a result, Tellez gets an exceptionally high amount of called strikes against him. The Pirates preach a similar, almost too passive approach at the plate, with an idea of targeting the right areas. In this case, you’d hope that Tellez can continue the trends of laying off pitches outside of the zone, while increasing his looks inside the zone. That’s the ideal hope that would lead to a Tellez breakout. The risk against that is he’s just taking an overall passive approach, without any discernment or increased recognition for the strike zone.
Smith doesn’t have the power of the other two players, usually putting up low double-digit home run numbers in his career. Smith does have a bit more of a silver lining than Tellez. During the 2019 and 2020 seasons, the first baseman combined for a .299/.365/.571 line with 21 homers in 395 plate appearances. Since that point, he’s received more playing time, transitioning to a full-time starter in 2021. The on-base abilities and the power production did not follow. Smith has also reduced his overall swing rate as a starter, dropping his overall swing percentage below 50% for the last two seasons. He made improvements with his contact rate in 2023, both inside and outside of the zone. This led to an improvement on his on-base percentage, bumping it up to .326.
Hoskins is the obvious best choice of these three players, but the reality is the Pirates are a poor team with more needs than first base. I would be shocked if they added someone like Hoskins. Additions like Tellez or Smith would make more sense, as that would allow the Pirates to go for a sleeper option with upside at the position. My pick of the two would be Smith, due to the improvements he made on contact in 2023, as well as his recent history of success in a less demanding role. Can he adjust to having success full time like Hoskins? I think he’s closer than Tellez.
SONG OF THE DAY
It’s a rich man’s game
No matter what they call it
And you spend your life
Putting money in his wallet
9 to 5
Oh, what a way to make a livin’
Barely gettin’ by
It’s all takin’ and no givin’
They just use your mind
And they never give you credit
It’s enough to drive you
Crazy if you let it
