I haven’t published a prospect ranking to this site in about two years. We’ve approached the process a few times. I’ve had my own lists I’ve been working on, which ultimately went unfinished and unpublished.
The prospect industry is not mine. I did not invent the 20-80 scale, nor the game’s meaning behind those numbers. If it were up to me, rankings would be presented in tiers, showing groupings of similar talent, rather than splitting hairs to see where each player individually ranks in the minor league system. But there’s something about our brains that we love sorting things into order.
For many years on this site, I adopted the approach of the prospect industry. My own approach modeled the approach of professional scouts, down to actually scouting players, in-person, for an entire week. Then, I’d struggle to rank the players in numerical order. Over the last two years, my focus has been on the ethics of grading human potential. There are over 200 players in the system. From that group, I’ve got 72 players projected with a chance to make the majors for at least a day.
That’s just one ranking from one person. Another person might have a different group of 72 players projected for the big leagues. If we polled enough people, we’d probably find an argument for every single player in the system. With only 26 spots in the big leagues, and players currently occupying those spots, the reality is that only a small percentage of players from this minor league system will make the majors. We all want to know who has the best chance at the limited opportunities. We all want to know what happens next. The future is what drives the prospect industry. Thus, we have prospect rankings.
Going forward, any rankings on this site will follow a tiered approach, rather than a numerical ranking. These tiers will inevitably give a loose ranking of the players. You’ll know my top five prospects after I publish the Tier Two article, you just won’t know the 2-4 order. The rankings will also be more grounded in where a player currently stands, his age, his experience level, and there will be a classical Future Value projection, but that will come as part of the following package:
Current Value (CV): A player’s value at the end of 2023.
Future Value (FV): The PiratesProspects.com Projection.]
MLB ETA: A single year, or a range.
FV ETA: A range of when that potential could begin.
I broke down the grading process in my intro column yesterday, along with the explanation of the 10-60 scale that I’m using, outlined below.
10 – Athlete
15 – Complex/Single-A
20 – Single-A/High-A
25 – High-A/Double-A
30 – Double-A/Triple-A
35 – Triple-A/”Quad-A”
40 – MLB Bench
45 – MLB Swingman
50 – MLB Average Starter
55 – MLB Above Average Starter
60 – MLB Plus Starter
The CV grades are based on the present day talent level, respective to the list above. The FV projections follow the same scale. You could project a 65 or 70 grade for some players, projecting them out as among the very best in the game. Those higher numbers are needed for the top prospect in the Pirates’ system.
Pittsburgh Pirates 2023 Top Prospects: Tier One
Tier One has just one prospect, and represents the 60+ FV prospects in the system. You could argue one of the four Tier Two players as a 60 FV prospect, but you could also argue that 2023 first overall pick Paul Skenes is a 70 FV prospect. No matter how you rank everyone else, Skenes stands alone in tier one.
PAUL SKENES, RHP, ALTOONA CURVE
HT/WT: 6′ 6″/235
CV: 35
FV: 65+
MLB ETA: 2024
FV ETA: 2027-28
3/1/2024 Age: 21.77
Prospect Report: If you put him in the majors today, Skenes could get outs, but the results would be akin to a player who is not quite ready for the big leagues. He’s only pitched 6.2 innings in pro ball, has yet to pitch on a five-day schedule, and was in an evaluation period by the Pirates’ coaches during his late-2023 preview. Next year should see him begin the year in Altoona, working on that five-day routine, which should take him to Pittsburgh by the end of the year. An aggressive development path has him putting up above-average results in his first full season in 2025, followed by the potential for plus results going forward. There’s precedent for rapid development from Skenes, with the LSU right-hander turning into an elite pitcher in one season. Skenes has an upper-90s to triple-digits fastball, a plus hard breaking slider, and three other pitches, including an above-average changeup. He could emerge as one of the best pitchers in the game, getting as high as 70 FV grades and rating as the best pitching prospect in the game. That elite FV ceiling could arrive around 2027-28.
Check back tomorrow for a feature on Paul Skenes. Tier Two will be posted on Thursday, followed by a feature on Anthony Solometo on Friday.
