Over the last few weeks, I’ve been creating a new system to rank and project the future value of prospects in the Pittsburgh Pirates’ minor league system. This approach is similar to the traditional 20-80 grading scale that projects out Future Values. The difference is that my system puts a bigger focus on the Current Values, while trying to project out a path to each player’s Future Value.
At this point in time, I’ve got individual grades on every player in the system, plus a Tiered ranking system that projects 72 players in the system with a future chance to reach the majors for at least one day. The order of those rankings isn’t finalized, and the Tiers are undergoing their final adjustments.
Here is a look into the ranking system, ahead of the actual rankings being released.
The Traditional Future Value
Prospect grades have long followed a 20-80, Future Value scale. The purpose is to tell what each player could become in his MLB career. The flaw with this projection is that it often leaves out an understanding of how long it will take a player to reach his future value. There’s very little emphasis on the Current Value, and the only ETA projections are based on when a player arrives in the majors. Even after a player arrives at the big league level, there is still development work to be done.
I’ll also add that the Future Value scale is less meaningful for a small market organization like the Pirates. That Future Value is going to be based off the production of prime years which, if the player is successful, will likely be played out in a major market.
A team like the Pirates needs to accumulate future value, but they need to be more concerned with where players are on a Current Value scale.
10-60 Current Value Scale
I don’t think there’s a Current Value scale anywhere in the game, though the concept has been used for individual tools. It’s now common to see tools or pitches graded with a present and future value. The overall grade remains the Future Value, with no tracking of where a player is in his progress. I’ve created a scale that models the current minor league structure.
10 – Athlete
These are players who have just turned pro in their teen years. A lot of players from Latin America, and a lot of the prep players who aren’t first rounders, are very raw from a baseball sense. They’re athletic, and they have an idea of the concept of the game of baseball. Their speed might allow them to cover a lot of ground in the outfield and steal bases — when they reach base. They might be able to throw upper-90s velocity in a shorter session, while beating up on their local talent with lower, harder-to-control velocity with movement. These are players who are physically skilled enough to play the game, and who have turned pro, but have yet to really play pro ball. A lot of these players can be found in the complexes, whether Pirate City or the Dominican Academy.
Best Current Examples in the Pirates System: Zander Mueth, RHP, Cristian Jauregui
15 – Complex/Single-A
There are games at both complexes, but if you’ve ever seen the action at that level, you’d see why there’s such a large gap between these complexes and the MLB bench grade of 40. There are a lot of errors, a lot of missed cutoff men, and a lot of swing and miss while looking for an unnecessarily big hit. There are some players in these complex games who perform well, and who are probably talented enough to move to Single-A and play under the lights every night in Bradenton. These players can be graded a CV-15 while in either the Complexes or Single-A. Their grade means they’re either among the best at the complexes, or the newest in the Single-A environment.
Best Current Examples in the Pirates System: Estuar Suero, Yordany De Los Santos
20 – Single-A/High-A
This is the traditional starting grade for the traditional 20-80 MLB scouting scale. My Future Value scale still operates on the 20-80 model, as I project every player to eventually reach at least the point where they’re good enough to play in High-A. For the Pirates, that means traveling to Greensboro, living on your own, and playing professionally in front of thousands of fans every single night. That’s a lot of added responsibility and pressure, versus playing in the more college-environment Bradenton, with better training complexes provided by the MLB team, and food and housing more easily provided near the fields. Players are even encouraged to take classes to educate themselves beyond the game of baseball. When a player reaches a CV-20 grade, it means they’re excelling in Single-A, in this college-type environment, and they’re ready to go out on their own to High-A.
Best Current Examples in the Pirates System: Lonnie White Jr., Mitch Jebb
25 – High-A/Double-A
The biggest jump in baseball is from High-A to Double-A. That’s the phrase I’ve been told very consistently for the last 15 years, though the phrase is probably dated. That line to jump across starts at this CV-25 level. When a player reaches High-A, they’ve got all of the added life responsibilities, as well as the challenge of more consistent talent. When a player can show they can progress their game in this environment, they’re ready to move up to Double-A. They might not immediately move up. Perhaps they need more experience living on their own while playing in a single location. Maybe they have some things that are easier to develop at the lower level. Once you’ve shown that you can live on your own, progress your game on your own, and excel on the field in High-A, you’re talented enough to make that huge jump to Double-A.
Best Current Examples in the Pirates System: Termarr Johnson, Bubba Chandler
30 – Double-A/Triple-A
A player has turned pro. They’ve developed enough talent to set out on their own. They’ve developed enough maturity at a young age to advance their game while on their own. If they can succeed like this at the Double-A level — a level that is full of players who can progress their game on their own, away from team complexes — they’ll be on the fringe of making the major leagues. The reason the jump to Double-A is so difficult is because it’s the first level where everyone has proven they can operate and succeed as a professional, at least to this point. If you can succeed and advance your game in Double-A, among players with this level of experience, you’re a CV-30. An MLB team will turn to a CV-30 player — the best among Double-A, or the worst among Triple-A — in an emergency. We’ve seen that with the Pirates in the last few years. Or, the Pirates giving a CV-30 player a brief preview of the majors to see what life is like behind the curtain.
Best Current Examples in the Pirates System: Anthony Solometo, Braxton Ashcraft
35 – Triple-A/”Quad-A”
You hear about players being labeled a “Quad-A” player. This is that level. When a player reaches Triple-A, he’s now playing against a lot of players who have already seen the Major Leagues. If he can succeed at this level, he’s reached a point where he’s good enough for the majors, yet unproven at the highest level. Some players get stuck at this level, never successfully making the jump to the big leagues, despite having continued success in Triple-A. Other players just stop at this grade briefly, before moving on to a successful MLB career. In terms of Current Value grades, a CV-35 represents a player who is not far from an MLB callup.
Best Current Examples in the Pirates System: Paul Skenes, Jared Jones
40 – MLB Bench/Bullpen
You could say that this is still the Quad-A range. The reality is that most CV-40 players make up the last few spots on an MLB roster, and most MLB teams prefer CV-45 players for those spots. At this stage, you’re an MLB talent and an MLB player, even if your Current Value is the lowest among the Major Leaguers. A great example of this right now is Quinn Priester. His Current Value is a 40, as he’s not yet a reliable starter, and hasn’t yet had success to show he can be a reliable swingman. If the Pirates wanted, they could make Priester a reliever, and he’d probably have more success to justify his CV-40 grade. However, Priester’s Future Value is still an MLB starter, which means he will be a below-average starter in the majors, or a CV-40 prospect in Triple-A, until the point when he starts to advance his career in the majors.
Best Current Examples in the Pirates System: Quinn Priester, Roansy Contreras
45 – MLB Swingman
A player reaches the big leagues by having the talent and showing the ability in the minors to develop and positively implement his game consistently. At the Major League level, you’re playing in front of more fans than you’ve ever seen, in the most high-pressure, sensory-overloading environments in the game. Every mistake made will be broadcast to millions. The idea that a pitcher should either be good enough to face a lineup one time through (CV-40) or three times through (CV-50) leaves out the pitchers who could probably give you 3-4 solid innings, if there was a strategy for this. Likewise, a position player who struggles playing daily, but who can succeed starting a few times a week, just requires a strategy on how to get him into the game for the right amount of time. It takes a lot of energy for players to play nine innings, six days a week, for six-plus months. Very few players should be expected to enter the majors with the expectation that they can play that often. A small percentage of that small group of players should be expected to have MLB success immediately while playing daily. A lot of players can start in a reduced role. The CV-45 grade has gotten more use the last few years, and the Pirates have gotten on board with their bullpen games and with moving super utility players all over the field.
Best Current Examples in the Pirates System: Ji Hwan Bae, Luis Ortiz
50 – MLB Starter
There are many jumps along the way in the development path. The jump from High-A to Double-A is difficult because of the consistency of talent across the Double-A level. The jump from Triple-A to the majors is even more difficult, because of the expectations attached. The high-pressure environment outlined in the CV-45 section above adds a lot of fuel for those expectations. But there are also the “prospect ranking” expectations. A player reaches a CV-35, where he’s having success in Triple-A, and good enough to make the majors. At this point, if he’s a prospect who is projected to be a future starter, the fan base will want him to immediately improve at least 15 CV points overnight to becoming an average starter. On this scale, being good enough to reach the majors and being good enough to start in the majors is the same valley as the jump from having success in Single-A to having success in Triple-A. Jack Suwinski is a great example of a player crossing that valley quickly. When the Pirates acquired him at the trade deadline in 2021, you could have argued he was in the CV-30 range. By early 2022, they needed an emergency outfielder, and they called him up from Altoona. He quickly had success, showing he probably jumped from CV-30 to CV-35 over the offseason. He continued having success, and put himself in the CV-45 range heading into 2023. After an up and down year, he finished the 2023 season as a CV-50 player. It’s taken Suwinski 906 plate appearances in the majors to go from a CV-35 to a CV-50, and there are some who would argue he’s still a CV-45.
Best Current Examples in the Pirates System: Jack Suwinski, Johan Oviedo
55 – MLB Above Average
This is what fans want in starters. Someone who is providing positive value, at a rate higher than most teams are getting from the same position. These are the starters who avoid the long slumps that get people down on CV-50 guys like Suwinski or Oviedo. Contending teams win with above-average starters, but the journey to above-average is a long one. Ke’Bryan Hayes finished the 2023 season with a 3.3 fWAR at third base, and a strong second half. By any standards, he was above-average at third base. You could even make an argument he was on the verge of CV-60 performance by the end of the season. It’s taken Hayes over 1,500 plate appearances to put up his first above-average season at third base. The good news for the 2024 Pirates is that Hayes will probably get to CV-60 status before he reaches 2,000 plate appearances.
Best Current Example in the Pirates System: Ke’Bryan Hayes
60 – MLB Plus Value
These are the best players in the game. From this level, you could go further to 65, 70, 75, and 80 grades. Once you’re CV-60, you’re among the top 20% of your position. Mitch Keller is an example from 2023. Keller ranked 23rd in WAR among 141 pitchers with 90+ innings in the majors. His xFIP was in the top 30, and his 210 strikeouts were tied for tenth. By many standards and metrics, Keller was among the top 20% of pitchers in the game this year.
Best Current Examples in the Pirates System: Mitch Keller
Three Years of Projected Increases
At the moment, I’ve got Current Value grades for every player in the system projected out for the end of 2024, 2025, and 2026. Predicting the future in this detailed way is a fool’s errand. My approach was to give a standard five point increase per year, with a 10-point increase for the more advanced players. I plotted out each player’s progression individually, so the numbers are what feels right for the player.
This will ultimately give two ETA ranges. The first will be an MLB ETA, which simply tells when a player could arrive in the majors. The second is a Future Value ETA, which projects when a player might eventually reach that value that drives their prospect rankings.
In the case of Paul Skenes, his MLB ETA is 2024. However, his Future Value ETA is 2026-27. I don’t project plus MLB value from Skenes until the end of the 2026 season. The 2027 season might be the first time he puts up plus value for an entire season or higher. That said, he’s projected for an above-average season in 2025, which would be his first full year in the majors under this progression. Again, predicting the future this detailed is a fool’s errand, but it does give a framework for expectations. If you’re expecting Paul Skenes to lead a playoff rotation, set those expectations for 2026-27 or later. If you’re simply expecting Paul Skenes to positively impact a playoff team all year, you could look to 2025.
Let’s look at someone lower in the minors for a different view of the CV/FV splits. Estuar Suero is a player the Pirates really liked, who they acquired from San Diego in the Rich Hill/Ji Man Choi trade. Suero is a CV-15 player, spending his 2023 season in the complexes, and likely moving up to Single-A next year. My projection has him ready for High-A at the end of 2024 (CV-20), ready for Double-A at the end of 2025 (CV-25), and a bigger jump to be a CV-35 by the end of 2026, on the fringe of the majors. I’ve got Suero projected as a FV-50, with Extreme Risk, due to his proximity and experience. His earliest MLB ETA would be 2026, though 2027 would be safer. As for his FV ETA, that would likely be 2028 at the earliest, on this optimistic scale. Keep in mind that Suero will be 18-years-old in 2024. This best case scenario projects him reaching the majors at age 21, and being an average starter by age 22, after five seasons of positive development across the levels.
In each case, you get an idea of how the player might progress, when they could arrive, and when they could reach their projections.
The biggest value of these expanded projections is on the organizational level. After promoting a lot of prospects to the big leagues in 2023, the Pirates have three players in their system who could be CV-45 by the end of 2024: Skenes, Jared Jones, and Nick Gonzales.
By the end of 2025, Skenes is the only player in the current farm system who projects to be above-average in the majors. Jones and Gonzales could be starters, while Anthony Solometo, Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft, and Mike Burrows could join the CV-45 group.
By the end of 2026, the following eight players have a chance to be CV-50 in the majors: Skenes, Jones, Gonzales, Solometo, Chandler, Ashcraft, Burrows, and Termarr Johnson. Keep in mind, this doesn’t mean they’ll all be starters all year. Just that they could be that quality by the end of 2026. The CV-45 group: Jackson Wolf, Tsung-Che Cheng, Max Kranick, J.P. Massey, Thomas Harrington, Lonnie White Jr.
Players who are currently ranked lower can obviously jump up an unexpected amount (more than the standard 5 point jump per year, or even more than the 10 point jump I gave some players), and get to that CV-50 point by 2026, or earlier. Likewise, not every player will project as expected.
Age and Personality Factors
With each player, there are two wild cards for projecting their development: Age and personality.
The age factor is less subjective, and more scientific. Every player is a human. Our minds develop faster at a younger age. Our bodies are more resilient. We reach a point when the brain stops growing and developing. When the body takes more time to recover. After a certain age, a player shouldn’t be expected to progress. After another certain age, a player should be expected to regress. I gave various boosts to players, based on their age tier and relative level, with the assumption that younger players are more likely to develop rapidly than older players.
The personality factors are my own X-factor. Using my current top 20 prospects, there are only four players who I’ve yet to interview. I’ve gotten feedback on those players, as well as others I haven’t spoken with. My own prospect grades have heavily factored in the interview process. How a player expresses himself in an interview is ultimately reflective of how he will express himself on the field.
In my 15 years of interviewing players, I’ve found that it’s not easy to qualify or quantify a player’s authenticity level, so to speak. What I look for is whether the player speaks confidently, speaks with knowledge about the game, and most importantly, is the knowledge their own? We all get knowledge from other sources. There’s a difference between repeating something because someone in power told you it was correct, versus repeating it because you honestly believe it. Over the years, I can tell when a player believes what he’s saying because he has bought in, versus just going along with what he’s been told. The success rate of people who buy in, and take personal ownership of their development — even if the development ideas come from elsewhere — is much higher than the success rate of players who almost flat out ignore a glaring issue in their game.
Some players can’t be stopped from developing and advancing their game. Some players don’t need help with accountability, and embrace the challenge of addressing their flaws. Those are the players who get the benefit of the doubt from me, even if they don’t grade well in the age tier.
Pirates Prospects Rankings
I’ve got a rankings list that I could release today, and it would be good enough. I’ve still got a few more adjustments to make, especially to the lower tiers. Thus, here’s what you can expect the rest of the week on PiratesProspects.com.
Tuesday – Pirates Prospects Rankings: Tier 1 Breakdown
Wednesday – Paul Skenes Feature
Thursday – Pirates Prospects Rankings: Tier 2 Breakdown
Friday – Anthony Solometo Feature
