“No valid plans for the future can be made by those who have no capacity for living now. I have realized that the past and future are real illusions, that they exist in the present, which is what there is and all there is.”
-Alan Watts
*****
Not Tabata.
I like the simplified Google definition of the word — “the ultimate inexpressible nature of all things” — as a perfect encapsulation of baseball player development.
A simplified, modern day explanation of the concept of Tathata would be that “everything is what it is.”
Pirates fans have been conditioned to look to the “future” for years. I won’t say that this site hasn’t played a big role in the last decade-plus in leading that thinking. The team being horrible for years has helped as well. When you’re watching a losing team year-after-year as your escape from the chaos of life, and all you see is more chaos, it makes you wonder why you invested anything in this to begin with.
It’s like going to a really bad movie. You paid for this. When you get a chance to watch a baseball team win, it’s like watching a Marvel movie. You can’t even think about what is happening in front of your eyes, because there are so many Spider-Men springing into action. On the other hand, when you watch a bad team commit errors, and leave men on base — deflating every possible good moment — well, it gets to a point where you don’t even want to watch another DC movie. You don’t even care about the well-known characters and the potential they should have.
*****
The Pittsburgh Pirates open this week with the future.
This very much is the present.
Quinn Priester takes the mound tonight for the Pirates, with the 2019 first rounder making his Major League debut. Priester will be joined by Endy Rodriguez and Liover Peguero.
That trio will join Henry Davis, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo, and Carmen Mlodzinski, who have all slowly made their way to the majors over the last month.
In my column on Tathata and the Present Day Grades of the Pirates Position Players, I noted how few starters or potential starters there have been on the team this year. The Pirates have been trying to win by starting a lot of players who would be bench options on contenders.
Today’s callups will bring three players who could finish the 2023 season as starters the Pirates can build around. They join other recent arrivals who give the team a higher floor to develop from.
I’ll tell you why I like this group and their chances more than previous Pirates rebuilds: The combined energy.
I don’t think we’ve seen an influx of talent like this all at once. The promotions of Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, and Starling Marte were staggered across many years. The group that arrived in 2016-17 arrived as most of those veterans from the first group were on their way out.
The Pirates are winning at a .323 rate since their 20-8 start. That rate, over the entire season, would make them the third worst team in baseball. They lost to one of the two worst teams in baseball during this stretch. The reason Pirates fans have been looking to the “future” is because every night displayed growing proof that the present team was not going to win in the “future” without help.
Help has arrived. And it has arrived all at once.
We’re going to see the team that Ben Cherington has been building. This isn’t going to be a consistent team, by any means, but it now has enough players with the potential for good results on any given night that it will be exciting to watch on any given night. I don’t think the rest of this season will be as easy as listing a lineup, so let’s look at the individuals.
ENDY RODRIGUEZ
Positions: C, 1B
Present Grade: 45+
“Future” Grade: 60
How Acquired: One of five players acquired in the Joe Musgrove trade, Rodriguez could close out a win tonight catching David Bednar, another player from that trade. This is already the type of return you hope for from that situation.
What to Expect: Endy is worth the price of admission. Even watching him in Altoona last year, he was always involved in every play on both sides of the game. He’s a high-energy player who will find a way to make plays — either with his arm and quick moves behind the plate, or his advanced hand-eye coordination at the plate. Don’t expect it all to arrive at once in the big leagues. Rodriguez doesn’t need to do much to exceed what we’ve seen from Austin Hedges. He’ll be an upgrade in the present, even if there is more potential in the “future”. I don’t give higher than 45+ to new callups for their present grade, but Rodriguez could quickly move into the territory of someone you’d be comfortable starting on a nightly basis. Like this next player…
HENRY DAVIS
Positions: RF, C
Present Grade: 50
“Future” Grade: 60
How Acquired: Davis was the first overall pick in the 2021 MLB draft.
What to Expect: There are two key things that really stand out to me about Davis. The first is his confidence at the plate. His approach just screams that he’s up there to do damage. Full of armor, with a massive swing that will pull baseballs beyond the north side notch, it’s safe to say that Davis is going to hit in the present and future. He’s playing in right field, where he’s passable defensively, and could improve. The main thing I like is his ability and drive to improve quickly. His catching will be the most uncomfortable to watch of the trio that includes Hedges and Rodriguez. His ability and drive to learn quickly means he’s not going to leave us watching the same catching experience over and over again. I could see the Pirates working him in at least one game a week, and him using that to gain a lot more comfort behind the plate in the majors by the end of the season.
NICK GONZALES
Positions: SS, 2B
Present Grade: 50
“Future” Grade: 55+
How Acquired: Gonzales was the first draft pick under Ben Cherington, taken seventh overall in 2020.
What to Expect: I’ve been higher on Gonzales than most, despite his high strikeout rate and invisible walk rate. He’s changing his hitting approach, and we’re watching it. He’s got some of the best hand-eye coordination and bat speed in the system, but had an approach that was more “see the ball, hit the ball”. The MLB game is no longer that way, and while it may never have been, the odds of success in covering the entire plate are slim. Gonzales has been learning how to narrow his zone of attack, while also showing aggression early if the ball is in that zone. He’s getting a lot of strikes and swinging at a lot of them. He’s making hard contact, but it’s not consistent. He’s had a lot of swings over breaking pitches, or hits into the ground with an uppercut swing. The hand/eye and bat speed will keep him productive as he adjusts at the MLB level, while also giving him a better chance than most to develop into a two-way starter-quality middle infielder.
LIOVER PEGUERO
Positions: 2B, SS
Present Grade: 45+
“Future” Grade: 55+
How Acquired: Peguero was acquired with Brennan Malone for Starling Marte in the first trade under Cherington.
What to Expect: This is a very similar situation to Gonzales. Peguero’s hand/eye and bat speed might be better than Gonzales. His drive to be in the majors has been shown on and off the field. He switched from a white to a yellow sleeve on his glove arm, after a conversation with Oneil Cruz about what he would wear in Pittsburgh one day. On the field, he’s hit for a .786 OPS in Altoona, and more recently, an .889 OPS with Indianapolis over 30 plate appearances. He might have a similar experience as Gonzales, where the overall results show caution, but the on-field results show flashes of promise. He worked a lot up the middle with Gonzales the last few years, so having them together will add comfort to the middle infield defense.
JARED TRIOLO
Positions: 3B, SS, 2B, 1B
Present Grade: 50
“Future” Grade: 55+
How Acquired: Triolo was drafted in the third round of the 2019 draft, the final under Neal Huntington.
What to Expect: When Ke’Bryan Hayes returns, the Pirates will have an interesting decision to make with Triolo. He can play all over the infield, as well as all over the outfield. He’s been outstanding at third base so far, showing off the focus that made him a multi-year Gold Glove winner in the minors. I watched him last year in Altoona from the first base line. Triolo had his eyes locked on the pitcher until the pitch was thrown. His eyes then went to the plate and he went active. Every time. This is a difficult position to field, especially night after night with that level of focus. His offense has been positive right now, but I’d hesitate to place him higher than Hayes this early. Hayes broke out at the plate in September 2020, and hasn’t been able to replicate that over a full season, while producing some of the best defense in the game. It would be a lot to expect that same level of defense from Triolo and better offensive results. Triolo can play anywhere, so the Pirates can get creative in keeping him around.
QUINN PRIESTER
Positions: RHP
Present Grade: 45+
“Future” Grade: 55+
How Acquired: Priester was drafted in the first round of the 2019 draft, the final first round pick under Huntington. I’ll add that this scouting department has largely remained intact. Huntington oversaw the picks of Priester and Triolo, and that same group has been providing reports for every draft since.
What to Expect: Priester has not been dominant from a strikeout standpoint, due to a fastball that grades as fringe. It’s an easy pitch to hit, lacking movement. His curveball is elite, and his cutter can supplement the lack of a strong fastball by allowing him to pitch backwards. He’s a smart pitcher who is adaptable. I think he will develop in a similar way to Mitch Keller, eventually adding to or adjusting his pitch approach until he locks in what will work against MLB hitters. For now, expect him to be a back of the rotation guy who could give you a good start every other time.
CARMEN MLODZINSKI
Positions: RHP
Present Grade: 40+
“Future” Grade: 45+
How Acquired: Mlodzinski was drafted with the 31st overall pick of the 2020 MLB draft.
What to Expect: The potential for an above-average fastball and above-average slider gave Mlodzinski a quick path to the majors as a reliever. He’s lacked control, and doesn’t have a strikeout pitch, though his slider has been difficult to hit. While his pitches could both be above-average in the future, Mlodzinski hasn’t consistently shown that in his first 12 innings, with control being an issue. He has already received work as an opener, and with the Pirates’ rotation in shambles, he should have plenty of opportunity to get more experience to improve his stuff.
WHO THEY JOIN
With Rodriguez behind the plate, Davis would be in right field, with Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski joining him.
With Davis behind the plate, Rodriguez could go to first base, giving Carlos Santana a break. Outfield options include Triolo, Connor Joe, or the middle infield fallout.
What happens to Gonzales and Peguero when Cruz returns? Where does Triolo go when Hayes returns? How many veterans will the Pirates have in the designated hitter role? I’m assuming Andrew McCutchen and Ji-Man Choi would split the duties after the deadline.
The offense is young and inexperienced, but it’s exciting.
Reynolds. Cruz. Hayes. Suwinski. McCutchen. Rodriguez. Davis. Gonzales. Peguero. Triolo.
That’s ten players before you get to Ji-Man Choi, Connor Joe, or someone to develop properly off the bench in the majors like Tucupita Marcano or Ji Hwan Bae. Both of those players have been put into bigger situations than they could seem to handle this year.
The pitching is still a question mark. Mitch Keller has emerged as a top of the rotation option. Johan Oviedo is establishing himself as a reliable starter for the back of the rotation, with a chance for more. Priester doesn’t have anyone blocking him for a starting spot. Osvaldo Bido and Mlodzinski are the biggest candidates for innings of the remaining group, especially if Rich Hill is traded at the deadline. I would expect them to be joined by Roansy Contreras and Luis Ortiz in the final months.
Keller is the leader. Oviedo is comfortably in the starting five, and Priester could quickly give them a third reliable long-term starter. From here, how many of Bido, Mlodzinski, Contreras, or Ortiz will make that same Oviedo-jump in the final two months to join the first three guys? The pitching, to me, is a bigger need than the hitting. There are some interesting arms to watch develop, and they should see better run support each night.
