Last week, we started a new format for our Prospect Watch series. For years, the Prospect Watch gave a look at the nightly results throughout the system. Wanting a different look, we moved those results to our new Pirates Prospects Live feature, which you can check out below.
Yesterday’s Results: Bullpen Blows Late Lead Against Brewers
Today’s Action: Henry Davis to the Rescue
The new approach for the Prospect Watch takes a deeper look at three players each day. The end result last week was 21 reports on players from Indianapolis all the way down to the Dominican Summer League. To read about one of the players from last week’s reports, click their name below.
Indianapolis: Kyle Nicolas, Jared Jones
Altoona: Liover Peguero, Anthony Solometo, Matt Gorski, Abrahan Gutierrez
Greensboro: Tsung-Che Cheng, Will Matthiessen
Bradenton: Shalin Polanco, Jack Brannigan, J.P. Massey, Dominic Perachi, Brandan Bidios, Jesus Castillo, Geovanny Planchart, Nick Cimillo
FCL Pirates: Jun-Seok Shim, Yordany De Los Santos
DSL Pirates: David Matoma, Carlos Mateo, Tony Blanco Jr.
We’ve written about Henry Davis several times today. In this look, I wanted to focus on his work in right field, which is where I expect him to get most of his time in the majors at first. I’ve also got some thoughts on Bubba Chandler, who pitched last night in Greensboro. Wilbur Miller has a report on 2022 14th round left-hander Julian Bosnic.
TIM WILLIAMS: Henry Davis, RF, Pittsburgh (MLB)
I had a chance to see Davis in action last month as the Pirates were starting to move him into right field for games. I saw him play in right for two games, and despite the lack of experience, he didn’t look bad. He ran good routes, had plenty of range to the gap, and there’s the aspect of him having an elite arm.
Altoona has a wall in right field that extends in toward the field. If you’re running parallel to the wall near the warning track, eventually, you’ll run into the wall as it moves toward the foul pole and the bullpen. In one of his first plays in right field this year, Davis ran to that part of the wall, tracking down the fly ball, while successfully navigating the complex outfield wall. After the game, Davis told me that he had the bullpen guiding him, which is a testament to his mind that he could factor that into his game, like a natural, in one of his first appearances in right field.
I also had a chance to see Davis in right field during a Spring Training game at Pirate City. In that game, he made a nice one hop read off the wall, turned, and fired a throw to the infield, keeping the runner from advancing to third. Right field at PNC Park isn’t as deep as it is at Pirate City. The ability to read a fly ball off or around a complex wall — whether the chain link fence at Pirate City or the angles in Altoona — is a skill Davis has demonstrated.
He doesn’t have much experience in right field, but from what I’ve seen, Davis can handle the majors at that position.
TIM WILLIAMS: Bubba Chandler, RHP, Greensboro (A+)
It only feels right to give an update on Bubba Chandler, on the day that Davis is getting called up to the majors. The Pirates drafted Davis with the first overall pick in 2021, in part because they could save money to sign Bubba Chandler, Anthony Solometo, and a few other prep players. Recently, the Pirates promoted Solometo to Altoona, after the lefty showed no issue at the High-A level.
Chandler, on the other hand, has had some issues. Those continued last night, with Chandler giving up three runs on six hits in 3.2 innings. On the season, Chandler has a 6.44 ERA in 50.1 innings, with his 62 strikeouts being the bright spot. This is the first year that Chandler has ever been exclusively a pitcher, and only the second year that Chandler has exclusively played baseball. The simple way to describe his game is that he’s got tremendous upside, but is very raw in every direction.
We’re currently seeing the 2021 draft class separate. Davis is in the majors. Solometo is the most advanced prep player from the class, which isn’t news. Chandler is raw, and will probably be showing power stuff with frustrating results in Greensboro all year. Solometo advanced beyond him, because Solometo has been a pitcher for years. Davis is in the majors because he was drafted out of college, advanced in one area of the game. Chandler can be a dominant pitcher, and has already shown flashes of that this year. He was the most raw of the group, but also might have the highest upside.
WILBUR MILLER: Julian Bosnic, LHP, Bradenton (A)
The other day I talked about a lefty, Dominic Perachi, who doesn’t throw hard and relies very heavily on a curve. Here’s another with a similar profile: Julian Bosnic.
The Pirates drafted Bosnic in the 14th round as a senior out of the University of South Carolina. He’d missed the 2022 season due to a flexor strain in his elbow – he was planning to transfer to Arkansas and pitch as a fifth-year senior, had he not signed – and he had surgery that April, so the Pirates knew he wouldn’t pitch until 2023. The report on him at the time was that he threw in the low-90s, reaching 98, and had the ability to miss bats with a curve, slider and change. As a pro, his fastball only runs from 88-91. (Coincidentally or not, Perachi also doesn’t throw nearly as hard as advertised.) Bosnic throws the change and curve heavily, and doesn’t use the slider much. The curve is a slow one, mostly low-70s, even dropping into the 60s. His spin rate is mostly 2500-2600 RPM, not quite at Perachi’s 2700-2800 level. So far, Bosnic has pitched in relief.
This piece is partly a cautionary tale about StatCast. In trying to figure out what was working for Bosnic and what wasn’t, I found the proportion of fastballs to changeups to be erratic enough to be unlikely. For instance, on June 1, Bosnic supposedly threw 25 fastballs and three changes. On June 18, he supposedly threw 13 changes and 12 fastballs. The likely reason for the disparity lies in the fact that, according to StatCast, the range in Bosnic’s velocity on the two pitches overlaps, with the change reaching almost 90 mph, harder than some of his fastballs. (Another example is Sergio Umana, a reliever currently with the Marauders. He recently dropped down to a low-sidearm delivery and his fastball now sits at about 83. According to StatCast, though, he doesn’t throw a fastball at all any more, only changeups. The velocity is confusing the algorithm.) So, at bottom, I don’t think the StatCast data on Bosnic is accurate. This extends to the distinction between sinkers and four-seamers, where his ostensible usage is pretty erratic, too. I’m just calling it all fastballs.
Anyway, Bosnic so far has been something of a three-true-outcomes guy. He’s currently sporting a 6.3 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9. Opponents are batting only .154 against him, but when they connect, they connect hard. He’s allowed four dingers out of the 14 hits against him. The pitch data doesn’t paint any consistent story. He sometimes throws one pitch more often for strikes, sometimes another. Sometimes one pitch gets some swings and misses, sometimes another does. Overall, he doesn’t throw many strikes, probably fewer than Perachi, and he doesn’t have a dominant pitch, although his change is probably the best one. From watching him, I’ve noticed that, despite the low velocity, his fastball can sneak by hitters when he’s getting ahead with his secondary stuff, something that’s also true of Perachi. Overall, Bosnic has been more effective than Perachi (3.14 ERA and 1.19 WHIP vs. 4.53 ERA and 1.51 WHIP). Bosnic has two advantages: he’s pitching in shorter stints and he’s throwing a wider variety of pitches, as Perachi is mostly fastball/curve.
It’s very hard to project where Bosnic might go down the road. Apart from the StatCast problems, he’s coming off a missed season and elbow surgery. That could be a factor in the control issues. His game is keeping hitters off-balance, which he does very well at times, as he mixes his pitches and speeds constantly. Hence the .154 opponents’ BA. But he won’t succeed at higher levels without throwing more strikes. Hopefully, further out from the injury he’ll be doing that.
Prospect Watch Archives
6/18: Jared Jones, Matt Gorski, Tony Blanco Jr.
6/17: Liover Peguero, Dominic Perachi, Carlos Mateo
6/16: Kyle Nicolas, Anthony Solometo, Jack Brannigan
6/15: Shalin Polanco, Abrahan Gutierrez, Will Matthiessen
6/14: Nick Cimillo, Geovanny Planchart, Jesus Castillo
6/13: Brandan Bidios, Yordany De Los Santos, J.P. Massey
6/12: David Matoma, Jun-Seok Shim, Tsung-Che Cheng
The Prospect Watch runs every day at noon, featuring three players from the Pittsburgh Pirates farm system.
