The Pittsburgh Pirates are calling up 2021 first overall pick Henry Davis, ahead of tonight’s game against the Chicago Cubs.
When the Pirates call up a player, we run a Roundtable series called “The Book”, where all of our writers give their expectations for the recent callup. In the case of someone like Osvaldo Bido (tonight’s starter), our information might be the first time most people have heard of the player.
In the case of a first overall pick like Davis, most Pirates fans know who he is and have been waiting on him to arrive. Thus, today we’re giving you our expectations for Davis in 2023. Give us yours in the comments.
JOHN DREKER
Davis only has 118 games of minor league experience, so I’m expecting some kind of adjustment period at the Major League level. For all of the calls to bring him up to the majors already, he hasn’t even put in a full year of minor league ball. Ten games isn’t enough to know how well he would do at Triple-A, so I think that basically skipping that level is going to hurt him short-term. That being said, he has everything that you hope to see except that experience. Davis has a great approach at the plate that leads to solid contact rates and plenty of hard contact. He’s got a career .927 OPS for a good reason. He combines the patience and power that you want to see from a middle of the order hitter.
The defense for Davis is another story. Whether he plays right field and/or catcher, he’s going to be learning on the job at the big league level well into 2024. Whichever spot he plays, the arm is going to help out his defensive value. The Pirates said that they are keeping Austin Hedges and Jason Delay, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Davis plays right field full-time. At this point any added value you get from the bat is going to be lost on the defensive side behind the plate. Davis needs reps back there if it’s going to be a position in his future. Maybe that’s something they revisit in either fall or winter ball.
If the Pirates are willing to roll with the potential adjustment period at the plate, and the on-the-job learning on defense, then getting him plenty of big league experience this year could pay off in the future. I’m not expecting him to be a superstar from day one, but I wouldn’t be surprised if his final 2023 big league numbers at the plate are strong.
WILBUR MILLER
First and foremost, Davis has shown pretty convincingly that the inconsistencies at the plate he went through in 2022 were likely the result of injury. The prospect mavens who were down on his hitting showed a very odd lack of interest in the fact that he had a fractured wrist. Based on what he’s done this year, the original, high expectations for his bat when he was drafted seem much more justified.
I don’t expect Davis to have a great deal of difficulty getting acclimated to the majors, despite the brief stay in AAA. He’s had very good BB:K ratios in the minors, nearly identical in AA and AAA. Watching him with Altoona, I saw very little chasing, and I didn’t see him bailing toward third as he tried to pull everything, which is a significant problem for some of the system’s power hitters.
It’s interesting that his batting average changed from AA to AAA by just two points and his OBP by just one point. There’s certainly a level of coincidence involved, but he looked like the same hitter at both levels. He was maybe a little more tentative in AAA – hence just one longball in 45 plate appearances – but he seems to have a plan at the plate, rather than just selling out for power. He’ll undoubtedly need to feel his way through still more in the majors, as he’ll see more strikes than in the minors, especially in AA, where the pitchers clearly wanted no part of him much of the time. Of course, it’ll help if Derek Shelton doesn’t play silly games like limiting the rookie to 3-4 games a week.
Defensively . . . well, there’s probably nothing to expect. Shelton has said Austin Hedges and Jason Delay are staying on the active roster. They’re not keeping two catchers so they can both sit on the bench, so it’s unlikely Davis will catch much. Considering what a liability Connor Joe has been since April, Davis will probably play mainly in right. There shouldn’t be any noticeable loss in defense in that spot. To the extent he does catch, he’s not going to come remotely close to Hedges’ ability as a receiver. He should, however, be at least as effective in controlling the running game as Hedges and Delay, which is a low bar. And in handling pitchers, there’s a serious dearth of hard evidence that Hedges has added anything at all in that area, so there’s no reason to expect a decline.
ANTHONY MURPHY
Davis’ biggest impact will obviously come from the bat, as maybe only Jack Suwinski can match his raw power in the current Pirates lineup. The fact that they are keeping Austin Hedges and Jason Delay on the roster, for now, shows that they are bringing him up for his offense as opposed to as a catcher.
He’s shown a fantastic approach at the plate this season, walking (40) nearly as many times as he has struck out (46), while also posting one of the lowest Swinging Strike rates in the system.
I thought that his swing could lead to some swing and miss issues as he got to the higher levels, but it’s been the opposite. That will certainly be something to watch in the majors.
Expectation wise, you bring up a former first overall pick to eventually be a difference maker, and while that might not be the case immediately, Davis has some well placed veteran leaders that can help him along the way.
Hedges will help further his development behind the plate, and Andrew McCutchen knows what it’s like to come up with the kind of expectations Davis will have.
In a perfect world, Davis doesn’t have to become one of the best players in the lineup, and can just chip in. He does have the approach and raw power to be a legitimate middle of the order hitters by the end of the season.
Defense may be a little more of a longer project, especially considering Endy Rodriguez is expected to be up at some point as well. I’d still expect a couple of games per week behind the plate, with the biggest value coming from a Hedges type mentorship.
JEFF REED
My expectations for Henry Davis while in the majors in 2023 are that he’s going to showcase why his bat has the potential to be very special.
Just to touch on it, and get it over with, Davis has made great advancements on the defensive side of things. That is not the reason he is here though. It’ll be interesting to see just how much time he gets behind the plate with two additional catchers on the roster, but the bat is what should be focused on. Davis will also have two very knowledgeable teachers to lean on, when he’s not hitting absolute nukes. He’s also more athletic than one would’ve originally expected, and should at least not play a comical right field.
The reason we’re all here though, is the bat. Outside of maybe some initial jitters, he’s going to look like he belongs from the jump. I’ve watched him face varying degrees of pitching, and he hasn’t shown an inability to touch any of them. 99 at the top of the zone? He’ll hit it. Inside fastball? It might hit him, although his HBP’s have dropped from twenty to only eight in nearly the same plate appearances as 2022.
Henry Davis is probably one of the first prospects in a while that I feel confident he will be able to slide right into the lineup without missing a beat. My confidence comes from the confidence he exuberates. I think that’s an intangible he’s going to bring with him as well. He’s going to step into the dugout and take on a leadership role you generally don’t expect from a player at his age. He’s going to have the game to back it up as well.
The long story short of my expectations, expect some Tanks.
TIM WILLIAMS
The Pirates drafted Henry Davis with the first overall pick in 2021 as a catcher. The Pirates have mostly worked him as a catcher, and I don’t think they’re going to give up on that. When it comes to the expectations for Davis in 2023, I think we need to remove the catching aspect from his profile.
Offensively, Davis looks MLB ready. His bat was exceptional this year in Altoona, with a .981 OPS and 10 homers in 187 plate appearances. He hasn’t stopped with Indianapolis, hitting for a .946 OPS and five extra base hits in 45 plate appearances. When I saw him in Altoona last month, he and Liover Peguero stood out as the most advanced hitters on the team — guys who didn’t look far from being MLB ready at the plate. The biggest factor is that no pitcher seemed to intimidate them in any way.
That’s where the catching position comes into play. Henry Davis is ready for the majors right now as a hitter. I don’t think he’s ready as a catcher. The Pirates seem to agree to an extent. Davis has been playing more right field than catcher with Indianapolis. Despite the promotion of Davis, the Pirates are expected to keep Austin Hedges and Jason Delay in the majors. This all suggests that Davis will get more time in right field.
As it should be. His bat is ready, but he shouldn’t be behind the plate simply because his bat is ready. He also shouldn’t be behind the plate simply because the Pirates have weak hitting catchers. They prefer unquantifiable defensive value. I’ll say that I agree Hedges and Delay would be better behind the plate this year for the Pirates. Davis is one of the best hitters in this organization, but that doesn’t by default make him one of the best catchers. I’m a big believer that there’s a huge amount of value in managing a pitching staff.
Having Davis in right field, where his bat can safely be slotted into the big league lineup, will give the Pirates a boost. Perhaps not the same boost as upgrading over the offense from Hedges. I believe the defensive downgrade to Davis would be bigger than the offensive improvement over Hedges. That said, having Davis on the roster to see how MLB catchers operate during games and during the season is a good thing long-term.
Davis is a quick learner, a hard worker, and he seems determined to improve behind the plate. For those reasons, I wouldn’t count him out long-term as a catcher. I don’t think he’s there right now, but he’s now in a better learning situation to get to being a starting catcher in the long-term. Don’t be surprised if we see him behind the plate in the majors to get some experience, but I think it will be more right field to start.
