Prospect Roundtable: The Book on Oneil Cruz

It seemed like only yesterday Oneil Cruz was in the minors, and Pittsburgh was clamoring for him to be in the big leagues.

Cruz has already exceeded prospect status, which means it is time for our Prospect Roundtable feature where we look at his career outlook from this point.

I’m not sure we’ve really learned much that we didn’t know prior to Cruz arriving. But I’ll save my opinion. Read below for our collective thoughts on what to expect from Cruz going forward, and realize that this book is barely into the first chapter. As usual, our reports are written independently, without seeing what anyone else wrote.

JOHN DREKER

Even though his hitting has been about the same in Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, Pirates fans are seeing a much better version of Oneil Cruz than those who have watched him over the years in the minors. Sure the tools are exactly the same, but he’s putting out full effort and keeping his head in the game a lot more often with the Pirates. About two weeks before he came up to the majors, something clicked with him that led to him putting extra effort into his work at shortstop and more effort into his game play. Anyone who watched Indianapolis regularly can tell you there is a different player. Whatever it was that led to the change (use your imagination), you can see all of the tools on display that makes him an exciting prospect.

Cruz is a big guy with a large strike zone, who can be pitched to, so strikeouts are going to be an issue during his career. The flip side is that when he does make contact, it’s almost always hard contact, and he doesn’t need a pitch to be in the strike zone to hit it out. Ultimately, you would rather he isn’t getting in the habit of swinging at bad pitches, because it’s leading to a low walk rate along with the high strikeout rate. It’s fun when you see him hit pitches out that he had no business swinging at, but that’s rarely the outcome of those swings.

Cruz is going to continue to fill out his frame, which is one of the reasons people thought he would outgrow shortstop (and not just his height when I say that). For now though, there’s no complaints about the defense. He has been prone to defensive slumps in the past and we haven’t seen one of those yet, but now you wonder if it was more the concentration level that was hurting him. That’s something we will see about over a larger sample size, and whether he’s able to avoid those prolonged defensive slumps when they start to happen. I’d like to see him run more because we have seen what he can do when he runs at full speed, with some of the best sprint speeds in the game.

For now it looks like he’s on the right track to use the rest of this year accumulating MLB experience, so he can go into next year with a full season to really show what he can do at the big league level. I wouldn’t mind seeing him put in a little winter league time in the Dominican this year, because I think the full off-season off didn’t exactly help when he was the worst hitter (lowest OPS among qualified hitters) in the International League in late April.

WILBUR MILLER

The book on Oneil Cruz is easy to summarize. He’s possibly the most unique prospect to come along in anybody’s memory. He brings several elite skills – power, arm strength and speed – in a 6’7” frame that adds some challenges to him taking advantage of those skills. He took no time at all to set several firsts in exit velocity and infield throw velocity. And Statcast puts his sprint speed in the top one percent of MLB. He also possesses exceptional athleticism that lets him employ that frame at short. He’s likely to end up maybe a little below average defensively, but every indication is that, at least for the time being, he can stay at the position.

The real barrier for Cruz right now is making enough good contact. This is almost entirely a matter of him adjusting to major league breaking balls. The Statcast data shows he’s hammering fastballs and offspeed pitches, but he’s having a terrible time with breaking balls. Those bad swings are leading to some fan frustration and calls for him to go back to Triple-A, but such a move would be incredibly foolish. Cruz has needed time to adjust to every level he’s played at, and he’s always adjusted. He also has no options left after this season, unless the Pirates are able to get a fourth one. This is the time for him to do whatever adjusting is needed, not next year. As much as he’s struggled at times, the big flies are still coming and he’s on a pace, over a full season, to produce 30+ home runs and 100+ RBIs. The Pirates can live with that kind of struggling.

ANTHONY MURPHY

As Oneil Cruz graduates from his prospect status it still feels like the jury is still out on just where he’s going to land as a player. He has almost limitless upside but has shown the swing-and-miss in his game that can bring him right back crashing to Earth.

I’m not sure there’s a Pirates player I distinctly remember that could bring you out the seat the way Cruz can, and in as many ways. Whether it’s in the field or blasting a baseball off the bar in the right center field stands, Cruz does it all as far as excitement.

As far as defense, Cruz has been far better in the majors than I saw him in the minors, even if he’s had a mishap here and there. We’ll see how things continue to progress, but he took a huge step in the right direction once he hit the majors.

He’s going to have to cut down on the strikeouts, but the amount of damage he’s doing when he makes contact more than makes up for it. He feels like a guy who is going to hit along the .240-.250 range, but easily push the 30 home run mark on a yearly basis.

TIM WILLIAMS

Oneil Cruz is the poster child of how losing prospect eligibility doesn’t mean you have lost upside. What we’ve seen from Cruz in the majors so far has been pure upside. His upside is driven by his elite power, and the possibility that he can play shortstop. He has performed well in both categories. Cruz has a .224 ISO and nine homers in 161 plate appearances. His defensive metrics aren’t an issue at all, with four defensive runs saved and a -0.8 UZR/150.

The problem is that Cruz is just hitting for power right now. He’s got a .204 average, a .242 on-base percentage, and a 36% strikeout rate. His walk rate is low, at 5%. Cruz swings at pitches out of the zone 39.2% of the time, which is above the 32.4% league average. That doesn’t pay off, with 51.3% contact, down from the 63.8% league average out of the zone. Cruz chases more, and misses more out of the zone. Those mammoth golf shot home runs may come at a price of a low average and on-base percentage.

Cruz will always have power. There’s a saying that if you had a long enough stick, you would have enough leverage to move the Earth. If you put Oneil Cruz in outer space with a bat, and threw the planet at his feet, he might hit it and send it to the moon. The problem is, he would definitely swing at that pitch, and his probability of hitting it is low. But his arms are so long and his swing is so agile that when the ball hits the barrel of his bat, it’s generating far more force than any other player who is half a foot shorter than him can possibly generate.

Our photographer, David Hague, got that great shot of Cruz blocking out Aaron Judge. At the All-Star Game, when asked if he saw himself in Cruz, Judge said that he saw someone better. I like that response, because Aaron Judge doesn’t need to prop himself at this point in his career. But also, Cruz can be better. He just has to believe it. Having Judge say that probably helps in some way.

We will know when Cruz believes he’s better than Judge. It will happen when he stops chasing bad pitches out of the zone, and lets opposing pitchers try to throw him strikes — with the fear that he has the capability of sending any one of those pitches a long, long distance.