John Lowe, then a sportswriter for the Philadelphia Inquirer, coined the term “Quality Start” in 1985 as a means to gauge whether a pitcher did his job. Lowe also created another wrinkle to go along with the stat. He called quality starts in which a pitcher got the loss “tough losses.” And he called non-quality starts in which a pitcher earned the win “cheap wins.”
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As most know, three earned runs in six innings is considered a quality start. Or simply put, a 4.50 ERA.
At the time of this writing, the league average percentage of quality starts in the league is 35% (Per Baseball Reference). The Pittsburgh Pirates, as I’m sure everyone could have guessed, are dead last with a quality start 19% of the time. Four of their eighteen quality starts this season coming in the last week from Roansy Contreras, Mitch Keller, JT Brubaker, and now Zach Thompson.
The league average since 1980 has oscillated mostly between 46% and 54%. The 2015 season was the last year the average was at least 50%, and hasn’t been above 40% since 2018. The 2020 season is the only year under 30% (Average was 29%), which I think we can all agree COVID played a part in. The following year it “jumped” to 33%, and is only up a couple more ticks so far this season.
There have been arguments surrounding the designation of the term “quality start” itself, but an ERA of 4.50 could’ve been considered around average between 1994 to 2009, and then recently 2017 to 2021.
Starting pitchers are throwing fewer innings and pitches. Teams are using an opener at times, which will skew the overall statistic (And I’m not sure if there’s a “opener” count anywhere). What I can tell you is that Baseball Reference has an Average Game Score (GmScA) which hasn’t seem any wild variations (50 to 53 is the spread over the last 10 years).
Analytics have changed the way front offices and coaching staffs view their pitchers as a whole, and how they utilize them. Are they better for the game? I’m personally in the middle, but know it’s an often hotly debated topic.
Do you believe the overall league numbers would see much of a difference if starters were allowed to pitch deeper more often? Or maybe it’s all for naught, cause MLB will just change the baseball moving offense one way or the other.
Pirates @ Colorado
Time: 8:40 PM EST
Pirates Starter: Jose Quintana (2-4, 3.59)
Marlins Starter: German Marquez (5-7, 5.66)
Quintana Notes: Jose Quintana has had a bit of a rough go as of late. In his last seven starts, he’s carrying a 4.89 ERA, while striking out 37 in 35 innings. He’s already surpassed his MLB innings total of the previous two seasons combined (73 IP between 2020 & 2021). This will be his last start before the All-Star Break, which will be a nice opportunity to unwind for a little bit, just as for all the others starters that managed to put up their best start of the season in the last week.
LINEUPS:
Pirates
Baseball at 5,280 ft.#LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/HEVE6yokQC
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) July 15, 2022
Rockies
1-Connor Joe (RF)
2-Kris Bryant (LF)
3-Charlie Blackmon (DH)
4-C.J. Cron (1B)
5-Brendan Rodgers (2B)
6-Jose Iglesias (SS)
7-Ryan McMahon (3B)
8-Randal Grichuk (CF)
9-Elias Diaz (C)
UPDATE: Some moves before today’s game.
