Pirates Prospects Who Could Be Most Affected By an Extended MLB Lockout

The MLB lockout could extend for a long period of time, with some worst-case scenarios predicting that it could wipe out the entire 2022 season. That’s not a huge loss for the Pittsburgh Pirates as a team, since they’re not expected to contend in 2022.

Missed games would be a loss for certain prospects on the Pirates’ 40-man roster. Some players are set to make their rookie debuts, and would have that delayed. Some players have a shot at locking down a future MLB job this year, and might have a tougher time in the future with all of the minor leaguers moving up — as the minor league season is still a go. And some of the 40-man players won’t get a chance to move up in the minor league system, due to their 40-man status.

Here is a deeper look at some players who could be affected by an extended lockout.

Missing Their Rookie Seasons

The 2021 season ended with Roansy Contreras and Oneil Cruz getting their first taste of the big leagues. Both were expected to be highlights at some point in 2022, with Contreras being one of the more promising members of the rotation, and Cruz having a low-pressure year to see if he can stick in the majors, and stick at shortstop.

These two players are safe. It doesn’t matter what happens with other players emerging in the system. They’ll both get their shots at the majors.

Perhaps the same is true for the trio of outfielders on the 40-man roster: Canaan Smith-Njigba, Jack Suwinski, and Travis Swaggerty.

The Pirates have long-term outfield spots open, and the addition of all three to the 40-man this offseason shows that they’re the lead candidates for that role, with a chance for each to arrive this year if games were played. With all three locked out, that provides an opportunity for Cal Mitchell and Matt Fraizer to emerge as options, playing with uncontested time in the upper levels in 2022.

Blake Cederlind is another guy who is missing valuable time here. The Pirates could eventually see Cederlind locking down their high pressure innings out of the bullpen. He’s been recovering from Tommy John surgery over the last year, and should be an option for the MLB bullpen at some point in 2022.

Missing Their Chance to Stay Ahead

There are two big areas of focus here: The starting rotation and the second base job.

The rotation has a few candidates with inside tracks, mainly Mitch Keller, Zach Thompson, and JT Brubaker. Beyond those three, the players competing for a spot include Wil Crowe, Max Kranick, Bryse Wilson, and Miguel Yajure.

Three of those pitchers were acquired in trades made by Ben Cherington to rebuild the system. They are being chased by Contreras on the 40-man roster, as well as Quinn Priester, Carmen Mlodzinski, and the other pitchers from Greensboro’s 2021 High-A rotation. Those pitchers will all be knocking on the door, giving a challenge to the quad group of Crowe/Kranick/Wilson/Yajure. The Greensboro group brings some higher upsides, or some that are similar to the current options. Eventually, this will shift some pitchers to the bullpen, and the Pirates could get creative with long-reliever days.

The second base position is being kept warm for Nick Gonzales, who will also be moving up to Double-A this year. If there is an MLB season, the second base job would be a battle between Rodolfo Castro, Michael Chavis, Diego Castillo, Tucupita Marcano, and Hoy Park. Out of that group, Park has the best chance to stick on the roster as a super utility player. However, he’s also entering his age-26 season, so he’s not exactly a prospect like the 22-year-old Castro or Marcano. The more time Gonzales gets to catch up to this group, the less time any of these guys have to establish themselves in the big leagues.

Falling Behind

Every player on the 40-man roster will fall behind due to a lack of games. However, that might have a bigger impact on Liover Peguero. The shortstop spent the 2021 season in High-A Greensboro, and while he was added to the 40-man roster this offseason, he isn’t likely to end up in Pittsburgh this year. Losing a full season of development could delay that path to the big leagues, while separating him from Nick Gonzales and other players in Greensboro this year.

Another player who could be disproportionally impacted by a lost season is Luis Oviedo. The tall right-handed pitcher was a Rule 5 pick last year, spending his season in the bullpen, but getting a chance to make a few starts. Oviedo could get more work in the rotation in the minors this year, where he could definitely use the focus on his control.