This weekend hasn’t gone as perfectly as you’d hope for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Pirates were set to throw the two best pitching prospects in the game on Friday and Saturday. Breakout starter Jared Jones was scheduled on Friday, and top prospect Paul Skenes was set to make his MLB debut on Saturday.
Jones didn’t have his best start, but didn’t pitch poorly. He allowed three runs, two earned, in six innings. That came on seven hits, two walks, and with four strikeouts. The offense gave him a 2-1 lead after the first inning, but their offense shut down for the rest of the night in the 7-2 loss.
Skenes made his debut on Saturday afternoon in a wild back-and-forth game. The final stat line was three runs on six hits and two walks in four innings of work, while striking out seven. Skenes entered the fifth inning with one run allowed, and put two runners on base before being pulled with a career-high 84 pitches.
After Skenes left the game, Kyle Nicolas came in and recorded two strikeouts, before things went off the rails. Nicolas hit a batter to load the bases with two outs, then walked the next three batters, cutting the 6-1 lead to 6-4. He was replaced by Josh Fleming, who walked a batter and gave up a single to tie the game.
One more out from either of these pitchers would have made an official game. After the score was tied, a two hour and twenty minute rain delay began. Upon return, Colin Holderman came into the game, still with the bases loaded and two outs, and walked in two more runs. He got a lineout to end the inning, with the Pirates going from a 6-1 lead to an 8-6 deficit.
That didn’t last. The team scored four runs in the third, and two in the fourth prior to the delay. They maintained the big inning production with a three run homer from Yasmani Grandal in the bottom of the fifth, recapturing the lead at 9-8. A solo homer from Andrew McCutchen in the sixth made it 10-8. They held that lead for David Bednar in the ninth. Bednar allowed a run, but stranded the tying run on third base to pick up the save and seal the Pirates victory.
A NEW ERA
The Pirates sent out the two best pitching prospects in the game against their division rival Chicago Cubs, and split the contests. Both games were sloppy. The offense didn’t show up in one game, which has been a trend this year. The bullpen didn’t show up in the next game, which has been another growing trend.
With Skenes joining the Pirates this weekend, and Jones off to an impressive start, the Pirates have officially shifted to a new era of the rebuild that began following the 2019 season under Ben Cherington. This is largely the team that is going to be asked to win it all over the remainder of this decade.
Skenes and Jones are set to lead the pitching staff, which could still add some prospects from the upper levels in the next few years — most notably RHP Bubba Chandler and LHP Anthony Solometo in Altoona. 2019 first rounder Quinn Priester is currently getting another shot in the big leagues. Mitch Keller has been extended to join Skenes and Jones in the long-term group. The Pirates have also shown a good tendency to find quality left-handed starters for cheap on the free agent market.
There has also been a tendency by the Pirates to find quality relievers, even if that didn’t work out on Saturday. As of Sunday morning, Pirates starters have combined for a 4.22 FIP, which ranks 20th in the game. Their relievers have combined for a 3.68 FIP, which ranks 10th. The group is largely being elevated by the middle relievers, with David Bednar and Aroldis Chapman struggling early in the year.
The offense has been a big issue. They rank 27th with a .290 wOBA and 26th with an 85 wRC+. The long-term group includes Bryan Reynolds, who is one of few above-average performers. It also includes Ke’Bryan Hayes, who has struggled offensively, and hit the 10-day IL this weekend with a back issue.
A lot of hope rests on Oneil Cruz, who has been on fire in the month of May. Cruz is hitting .379/.419/.793 in 31 plate appearances this month. That’s a small sample size, but an encouraging sign.
The Pirates have also put a lot of hope in Henry Davis, the first overall pick of the 2021 draft. Davis hit .162/.280/.206 in his time in the majors to start the season. He was recently sent down to Triple-A, and was batting .188/.435/.188. One year earlier, they drafted Nick Gonzales in the first round. Gonzales was advertised as a potential future batting champion, but has dealt with a high strikeout rate. He’s lowered that in Triple-A this year, and was called up this weekend for another shot at the big leagues.
As of right now, the top five hitters in the lineup are Reynolds, Hayes, Cruz, hope, and prayers.
REBUILD CONCERNS
The Pirates have tanked in the standings across four seasons. Their 2020 performance led them to the first overall pick in 2021. Their 2022 performance, and a lottery win, led to the ability to draft Skenes in 2023.
The result is less than ideal. They would have never gotten Skenes if they didn’t have one of the worst records in baseball in 2022. They got Jones as an over-slot player in the shortened 2020 draft. But their hitting selections raise some massive red flags.
I don’t believe that the scouting community as a whole really understands how to project amateur hitting to the big league level. Nick Gonzales was advertised as a future batting champion because he hit so well in a high offensive environment at New Mexico State. Two years later, the Pirates drafted Termarr Johnson fourth overall, getting what was described as the best prep hitter in the draft. Johnson, like Gonzales, has dealt with swing and miss and contact issues in his pro career.
Aside from the scouting community’s lack of understanding of projecting hitting — which will be upgraded once MLB releases bat speed and angle Statcast data later this year — what I do know is that the Pittsburgh Pirates can’t develop hitters. There isn’t an example to the contrary of that statement.
This rebuild has seen three of their four first round picks dedicated to hitters, and none of them are anywhere close to the consensus pre-draft scouting reports. Maybe the scouting reports were wrong, but every single first rounder for the Pirates has gone in the opposite direction of those reports.
Gonzales and Johnson aren’t high contact guys, but instead high strikeout guys with contact issues.
Davis was projected as a guy who might be able to catch in the big leagues, offering a plus power hitter behind the plate. He has zero home runs in 106 plate appearances this season. His power in the minors has been a result of an approach that sees him swinging for the fences with every pitch, which can get exposed easily in the majors.
You may remember that last year, I went hard in the paint with my opinion that the Pirates couldn’t afford to pass on Paul Skenes. That included repeating those claims on the Pirates pre-game show on 93.7 The Fan. At the end of the day, Skenes was a guy that I felt the Pirates couldn’t mess up. I was beginning to lack trust in their ability to scout amateur talent, as well as developing hitting talent.
After the season, Cherington replaced Joe Dellicarri as the scouting director, which is a peculiar move to make after two first overall picks and two more top ten picks in a four-year tank and rebuild. The Pirates have done well drafting pitching talent over the years, but they’ve missed on a lot of first round hitters. That existed prior to Cherington’s arrival, when the scouting department was still overseen by Dellicarri. Previous first round hitters include Will Craig, Cole Tucker, Kevin Newman, and Travis Swaggerty. They’ve taken seven hitters with their first pick of the draft in the last ten drafts, and currently have zero long-term Major Leaguers to show for that.
The minor league development system has raised concerns over the years for not getting the most out of their talent on either side of the ball. That has hopefully changed with the pitchers, as evidence with Jones and Skenes. Both pitchers had positive development work in their time in the minors. Jones learned how to pitch, and improved his velocity to sitting upper 90s and hitting triple-digits. Skenes added a splinker, which is looking like another plus offering.
These results haven’t exactly come from Pirates coaches. Jones, for example, learned how to improve his fastball from minor league teammate Thomas Harrington. Keller has seen improvements, as many players have, by outsourcing his development to a training facility. At best, the Pirates have gotten better in this regard at allowing their players to listen to other coaching sources, with the pitchers taking advantage of the revolution of independent training facilities.
On the hitting side, there are still concerns from the top of the system down. It almost seems like the Pirates are trying to turn everyone into the same type of hitter, which is the lack-of-individuality problem they faced with the old development system. Cherington is sticking with Andy Haines to lead the overall hitting approach, despite Haines producing six years of below-average, bottom-third offensive results as a Major League hitting coach.
There are also strategic concerns from manager Derek Shelton. The decision to send Skenes out in the fifth inning on Saturday, with no one ready in the bullpen for a quick pull, was probably the most glaring example you’ll see. Skenes had reached his career-high pitch count, which means he would be limited in the fifth. And he was. How much of that inning is on the relievers for not performing? How much of their performance is due to Shelton not preparing them properly?
WINNING TIME
The Pirates have lost for the last five seasons. Four of those have come with the same manager they have today. Two of those have come with the same hitting coach they have today. They’ve shown encouraging signs from their pitching development, but have lacked the same results with the hitters. This has led to three first round hitters during their rebuild going in opposite directions from their pre-draft reports.
With the top two pitching prospects in the game in Pittsburgh right now, the window is officially open. Without an extension, Jones is here through 2029, and Skenes is under control through 2030. The Pirates have control of Reynolds through 2031, Hayes through 2030, and Keller through 2028. They also have Cruz under control through 2028. Any young player who arrives this year or beyond will join that window.
This doesn’t look like a core that can contend in 2024. That’s a disappointing thing after a tank and rebuild. It might be a core that can contend in 2025 and beyond, but that would involve better hitting. Bringing in an established hitter from the outside could help, but the biggest impact would be a new process from within.
For the last several years, it didn’t matter if the Pirates were a bad team. That was part of the long-term focus to eventually become a good team. They are now at the point where they need to transition to being a good team. That means less leeway for a struggling offense. It also means that managerial decisions should receive a bigger spotlight, especially when they threaten to blow a massive lead like we saw in the fifth inning on Saturday.
With Skenes and Jones in the majors, the Pirates have officially exited their rebuild. This is the time they’ve built for. Everything matters more going forward than it did in previous seasons.
