There was one thing that was guaranteed heading into yesterday’s draft: The Washington Nationals were going to take the best player available.
As the Pittsburgh Pirates held their decision until twenty minutes before the first overall pick was made — keeping everyone in the entire league in suspense — there really was little question on what the Nationals would do. The only real question was “Who would they pick if the Pirates passed on Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews?”
I’ve been running Pirates Prospects long enough to remember lamenting the fact that the Pirates weren’t in position to take Stephen Strasburg. As the Nationals took that slam dunk pick, and then got another one the next year in Bryce Harper, I remember thinking that the Pirates are always just out of reach of these players. A year after Harper, they had the first overall choice, and went with Gerrit Cole.
The hype that Paul Skenes is the best draft prospect since Stephen Strasburg ignores that Gerrit Cole has arguably seen a better career. In each case, you’ve got a pitcher who provided an average of 3.5-4 wins above replacement each year. That’s the potential I see in Paul Skenes.
Strasburg and Cole are both completely different pitchers. Strasburg came in as the clear best pitching prospect, and a year later he was inevitably in the majors. Cole was not even the clear best pitching prospect in his draft class, and I even had Anthony Rendon as the better pick at the time. They both had the potential to be top of the rotation guys, and they both eventually reached that mark.
Skenes has that same potential. The hype surrounding his pick is less about his upside, and more about how close he is to that upside on draft day. I wrote more about that in today’s feature on the first rounder.
There was no doubt that the Nationals would take Dylan Crews when the Pirates took Paul Skenes.
As someone who wrote last week that the Pirates couldn’t pass on the opportunity to draft Skenes, and as someone who was prepared to write up an under-slot pick, I can tell you my opinion is that the Pirates made the best pick.
Where Do The New Guys Fit in the System?
Paul Skenes is going to be like Taco Bell. Everyone will love him, and he won’t stay in this system very long.
The Pirates will no doubt get a bump in the prospect rankings next year with his presence as one of the best pitching prospects in the game. By this time next year, Skenes will probably be pitching off that prospect eligibility in Pittsburgh.
In the more normal part of the draft, the Pirates added shortstop Mitch Jebb and prep right-handed pitcher Zander Mueth.
Jebb is a very fast player with an above-average to plus hit tool. His ability to make contact from the left side, along with speed, could eventually get him to the majors in a bench role with a chance to start — similar to the value of a lot of middle infielders the Pirates have had on the roster this year. His path to starting would be to develop more power, or to improve his defense at shortstop or center field. The Pirates got a high floor guy here, who could reach Double-A by the end of 2024.
Zander Mueth, on the other hand, is a project. He’s a big pitcher with a fastball that gets up to 97 already, along with two offspeed pitches that are average to above-average. The Pirates have a long tradition of loading up on projectable prep pitchers who they can develop. They’ve had a good track record in this department for over a decade. Mueth now joins a lot of exciting young arms in the lower levels. He’s had control issues, so expect him to get some initial work in the Complex League, with a chance to move to Single-A by the end of 2024.
Day Two Preview
The rumored bonus for Paul Skenes is a bit over $9 million, which would leave the Pirates with about $8 million to spend for the remainder of this draft, without losing a pick. Skenes gives them who I think is the best prospect in the draft, but they also have a chance to spend more on their remaining picks than about seven teams do in their entire draft.
The Pirates have already started the spending process, adding Mueth, who will probably require an over-slot deal. The Pirates pick rounds 3-10 today. I’m guessing they add a few players with Mueth style upside in the early part of the day, while creating bonus savings in the 6-10 rounds for these players.
Follow along with every pick at PiratesProspects.com.
Day One Links
Want to know what makes Paul Skenes so good? Check out my latest column on the first overall pick.
Here are the first three picks of the draft, with scouting reports on Jebb and Mueth.
**Pirates Draft Paul Skenes With the First Overall Pick in the 2023 MLB Draft
**Pirates Draft Mitch Jebb in the Second Round of the MLB Draft
**Pirates Draft Zander Mueth With Their Competitive Balance Round Pick
A few weeks ago, I asked members of the Pirates if they remembered their draft day. The end result is the following massive article, with stories from the following players:
Henry Davis. Nick Gonzales. Andrew McCutchen. Mitch Keller. JT Brubaker. Connor Joe. Cody Bolton. Jason Delay. Cal Mitchell. Josh Palacios. Rich Hill. Jack Suwinski. John Wehner. David Bednar. Derek Shelton.
Read it through while following the draft today.
**“Do you remember your draft day?”
J.P. Massey pitched in the futures game this weekend. I broke down his performance, and what has made him a breakout guy this year.
**Prospect Watch: J.P. Massey, Jackson Glenn, Grant Ford
SONG OF THE DAY
