Early in the MLB offseason, one deadline begets another.
Several deadlines passed this past week, but two more are right around the corner—the deadline for teams to file their Reserve Lists, as well as to tender contracts for 2023.
We’re going to focus on the former here, as it’s commonly known among fans as protecting players from the Rule 5 Draft.
Whether it’s hope, wanting old players out and new in, a desire to see any kind of moves, or something else entirely, fans love the Rule 5 Draft. This is interesting because, by in large, it’s one of the most overvalued productions in all of baseball—possibly in all of sports.
This may sound funny coming from me, the guy who calculates and tracks the Rule 5 date for every player in the system, but that’s just because it’s a procedural quirk that I enjoy. I recognize its outweighed importance, even if some fans can’t seem to.
Every offseason, a portion of any fanbase wants to protect any and all prospects that may be eligible, fearing that another team will swoop them up as they become the next Josh Hamilton or Johan Santana.
The thing is this just isn’t the case.
Relative to players left unprotected, very few players get selected and fewer still last the season in the majors required for a team to lose said prospect. Even for the rare prospect that gets lost, it’s likely it wouldn’t be hard for a team to find a relatively close facsimile from another farm system, whether it be in the Rule 5 Draft or elsewhere.
Rule changes several years back—adding an additional year before Rule 5 eligibility—made the process more secure, ensuring teams felt better about who they did and didn’t want to keep. If a team leaves a player eligible, it’s much more likely because they feel comfortable doing so, not because they don’t have the space.
So, don’t fret when your favorite prospect isn’t protected Tuesday; more than likely, it’s going to be just fine.
On that note, let’s look at who actually does need protected, along with some other players who are on the bubble.
Locks
Mike Burrows
Endy Rodriguez
Not much to say here. These players were here when I did this exercise in August, and not much has changed since. If anything, Endy Rodriguez is more of a lock than he was before.
Possibilities
Malcom Nuñez
Blake Sabol
Dariel Lopez
Matt Gorski
Cody Bolton (previously eligible)
Jared Triolo
Tahnaj Thomas (previously eligible)
J.C. Flowers
This list is players who I could at least see possibly being protected, listed by most to least likely, in my opinion.
I first thought Malcom Nuñez had zero chance when he initially came over from St. Louis in the Jose Quintana trade, but the more he continued to hit in Altoona before being promoted to Indianapolis to end the season, the more unsure I became on the likelihood that he gets rostered. Add that to the potential embarrassment of losing one of two pieces in the aforementioned trade—coupled with Ben Cherington’s track record of protecting prospects he acquired during this rebuild—and it may be even more likely that a protection comes to pass, even though that’s not exactly the best way to make a decision.
Maybe I was allowing the crowd to sway me, as I’ve been back and forth on Blake Sabol lately, after being strongly against him before, but DK Pittsburgh Sports’ Alex Stumpf finally converted me Friday:
“Talking to [Sabol] Tuesday, he thinks he’ll get added, and I’ve heard league buzz that if the Pirates do not add him, there’s a good chance he’ll be taken in the draft.”
I’d rather be correct than stick to an original position I think has more chance being wrong at this point, so I’ve moved Sabol up in my personal rankings, and we’ll see what happens.
Dariel Lopez is a bit of a wildcard—a very talented performer achieving success at a young age at advanced levels. However, he still is young, and how worried are the Pirates that another team will select him, jumping him three levels to the majors for his age 21 season? He profiles similar to Liover Peguero, who was protected last offseason, but Peguero was also a higher ranked prospect at that point.
I could go either way right now, but I’m just not sure he should be a lock at this point.
Matt Gorski is tricky, as he outperformed all expectations this season, playing across three different levels and showcasing his power in two of them. A late season injury kept him from displaying it in Indianapolis and in the Arizona Fall League. Between that and his lofty strikeout totals, is he a player that could stick in the majors a whole season? The team also has a lot of outfield options right now, and Gorski would only crowd that group even more, so for now, I’m projecting a no on protecting Gorski.
As for Cody Bolton, back when I did this the first time, I assumed he wouldn’t have to worry, as he would make his major league debut in 2022. That never happened, and now I’m not as sure on his standing internally as I would have been otherwise.
Bolton performed well, especially considering he hadn’t pitched in over two years. While it’s possible he gets selected and hidden in another team’s bullpen all year, I just think the Pirates would have already selected him if they were worried about that, as they did with Luis Ortiz in late September. It’s because of that I would lean towards him not being protected, but we’ll see.
As for the rest of the names, I have them listed because I view it as at least a possibility the team protects them, but ultimately, I don’t think it will happen.
If I’m concerned about anyone, it would probably be Jared Triolo. He’s not the third basemen of the future for the Pirates at this point, but he could be a utility player as soon as this season. Maybe another team with a more open long-term outlook at third likes him enough to snag him and can utilize him all over the diamond for a season, but do other teams value a third basemen without much power? It’s an intriguing situation, and I’m interested to see how it plays out for him.
Finally, it also bears mentioning—with this group, especially players towards the end—that perspective is important. A common refrain among many fans may be “how can they choose Player X over Player Y?!?”. For example, Eric Hanhold last offseason over someone like Bolton.
The thing is, the Pirates may not have liked Hanhold more than Bolton; rather, they just may have thought the chances of losing Bolton weren’t that high. If they tie up that roster spot with Bolton unnecessarily, it can’t be used later for anyone else. However, if they take the small chance of risking losing Bolton, they can use that spot later for another player they like more—Adonis Medina, as it turned out—while likely keeping Bolton in the process (and in this example, Hanhold as well). Basically, it was three for the price of one roster spot, whereas if they had protected Bolton, it would have been one for one.
It’s these intricacies that sometimes seem to get lost in the Rule 5 Draft that are just as interesting to me.
Of Note
Ricky DeVito
Carlos Jimenez
Colin Selby (previously eligible)
Rodolfo Nolasco
If I were ranking another group, this would be it. These are names that may work themselves into contention next year, but just won’t need considered this time around, for whatever reason.
Names Names Names
Cam Alldred (previously eligible)
Andres Alvarez
Osvaldo Bido (previously eligible)
Sergio Campana
Blake Cederlind
Christian Charle
Omar Cruz (previously eligible)
Maikol Escotto
Adrian Florencio
Santiago Florez (previously eligible)
Matt Fraizer
Abrahan Gutierrez (previously eligible)
Mason Martin (previously eligible)
Oliver Mateo (previously eligible)
Enmanuel Mejia
Alexander Mojica
Connor Scott
Aaron Shackelford
Aaron Shortridge (previously eligible)
Hunter Stratton (previously eligible)
Noe Toribio (previously eligible)
Eddy Yean (previously eligible)
At some point, whether it was this year or years prior, someone uttered every name on this list as a player who would or will need protected. To me, they are all safe and have little to no chance of being selected. Again, even if for some reason they are, it’s not as if they would stick or the loss would hurt long term.
Everyone Else
Francisco Acuna (previously eligible)
Braxton Ashcraft
Darwin Baez
Angel Basabe (previously eligible)
Franrielis Bastardo
Bear Bellomy
Carter Bins
Josh Bissonette
Josh Broughton
Carlos Campos
Brad Case (previously eligible)
Brendt Citta (previously eligible)
Enmanuel De Los Santos
Joelvis Del Rosario
Jason Delay (previously eligible)
Miguel Diaz
Yoyner Fajardo
Drake Fellows
Claudio Finol (previously eligible)
Grant Ford
Darvin Garcia
Jacob Gonzalez (previously eligible)
Domingo Gonzalez
Jack Herman
Joe Jacques (previously eligible)
Juan Jerez
Cameron Junker
Will Kobos (previously eligible)
Grant Koch (previously eligible)
Valentin Linarez
Fabricio Macias (previously eligible)
Jose Maldonado (previously eligible)
Andy Maldonado
Norkis Marcos (previously eligible)
Will Matthiessen
Trey McGough
Cristofer Melendez
Dante Mendoza (previously eligible)
Michell Miliano (previously eligible)
Johan Montero
Deivis Nadal
Jared Oliva (previously eligible)
Ernny Ordonez
John O’Reilly (previously eligible)
Jeffrey Passantino (previously eligible)
Luis Peralta (previously eligible)
Jhan Polanco
Wilkin Ramos (previously eligible)
Daniel Rivero (previously eligible)
Austin Roberts
Denny Roman
Rayber Romero
Lolo Sanchez (previously eligible)
Dylan Shockley
Peter Solomon (previously eligible)
Beau Sulser (previously eligible)
Eli Wilson
Final Predictions: Burrows, Nuñez, Rodriguez, Sabol
Offseason Calendar Update
—As I just covered extensively, the Pirates will need to have their Reserve List filed by Tuesday, November 15. They will have to make corresponding moves for as many players as they choose to protect, as their roster is currently full.
—At that point, the deadline to tender players contracts is Friday, November 18 at 8 p.m. A common misconception seems to be that this is only for arbitration eligible players, but every player gets tendered a contract for the next year, pre-arbitration included.
Terms aren’t agreed upon yet—that happens in spring—but teams are basically tying themselves to players at this point. So much so that if they outright a player later in the offseason, they still must come to terms with them before the season starts.
Pirates Payroll Updates
As was every team, the Pirates were busy this past week, and here’s a quick rundown of the moves that were made:
—A spot opened up after Ben Gamel became a free agent. The team quickly filled it, adding Ryan Vilade off waivers from the Colorado Rockies.
Vilade has .016 days of service, meaning he comes with six full years of contractual control. He also has two options remaining after using one this past season.
To make room on my theoretical roster, I dropped Beau Sulser, and payroll went down $6,754 based purely on a small difference in minor league splits.
—Faced with an actual roster crunch, the Tampa Bay Rays were looking to unload a few serviceable players from their roster. The Pirates kindly obliged, acquiring first baseman Ji-Man Choi for reliever Jack Hartman.
I have Choi at 5.076 years of service, meaning he’ll be on his last go around in arbitration before reaching free agency. MLB Trade Rumors projects that salary at $4.5M, and I dropped Zack Collins (more on him soon) from the roster, increasing my projection $3.755M.
Choi is out of options, not that it matters, as he has enough service that he would need to consent to any optional assignment. Speaking of, he now surpasses Robert Stephenson as the most tenured payer in the organization based on service time.
—Finally, on a day we’ve all been waiting for, the team made their first round of cuts to meet the roster limits for the first procedural deadline of the offseason.
Beau Sulser, Peter Solomon, Jason Delay, and Blake Cederlind were all outrighted and will stick around, as none had three years of service or had been previously outrighted, meaning they didn’t have the option to elect free agency. Cederlind technically has been in professional baseball seven seasons, meaning he would have been eligible for minor league free agency had he not been on the IL for the last two years.
I swapped Jeremy Beasley in for Solomon, but payroll wasn’t affected there. A swap of Yohan Ramirez and Cederlind resulted in a drop of $140,199.
Meanwhile, Eric Stout and Zack Collins were also outrighted; however, they had enough minor league service to declare minor league free agency, so they are no longer in the organization at this point.
Collins actually accrued a full year of service in 2021, but that was only after being on option for less than 20 days, meaning he still spent some time in the minors, leaving him eligible the way Cederlind was not.
—For 2023, the payroll estimate stands at $48,087,163 for the Labor Relations Department, while it’s $64,503,830 for CBT purposes.
