The one segment of the 2023 Pirates that should be very interesting, and could be actually good, right from the start of the season is the rotation. The usual caveats apply, since we’re talking about pitchers . . . injuries, disappointing performances, and — this being the Pirates — management bungling, could all intervene. But the rotation next March will be a different creature from what we’ve seen the last quite-a-few years.
Think back to the early season this year. The rotation looked like a fiasco. Some hope arose because of some very effective middle relief pitching. For a while, it looked like the Pirates could go full-on Rays-type openers, on a large scale. But it all fell apart due to a combination of talent that really wasn’t very good and management mishandling that undermined whatever was working.
Yet out of the ashes arose something different. Mitch Keller went heavily to a sinker and, maybe just as importantly, started thriving in tough situations, getting that key GIDP instead of walking one more guy. Roansy Contreras, once he was liberated from Service Time Manipulation Purgatory, looked as good as we’d hoped. JT Brubaker looked like a reliable starter when he wasn’t being hampered by minor injuries.
Barring unwanted circumstances, those three guys figure to headline the 2023 rotation. The interesting part is the rest, because there are more options than expected. Those last two spots — or, realistically, 4-5 spots, since nobody manages all year with five starters — are the focus here. It’s quite possible that, instead of an unorthodox, new-age sort of rotation, the Pirates could have a more traditional one, with five guys expecting to go 5+ innings game after game.
The most fundamental question right away is the possibility of adding a veteran. The Pirates have already said they want to do so, although they’ve carefully steered clear of any discussion of trying to bring Jose Quintana back. It’s a shame, because he’d be an even better fit now than he was a year ago. He’s not going to get Scherzer money or anything crazy like that, but he’s going to get a whale of a lot more than Nutting money, so we can probably forget it.
The worst thing Ben Cherington could do is follow his usual practice of waiting to see what veteran is the most desperate and therefore the cheapest. Yeah, it worked out great with Quintana, but does anybody remember Trevor Cahill? Derek Holland? The team’s need is different now. They’re not, or at least shouldn’t be, looking for somebody to eat innings. They need more innings to distribute, not fewer. And trading somebody for prospects in July is fine, but getting a staff of established starters out of the guys on hand would be better. So if you want Jose Quintana, sign Jose Quintana (or somebody equivalent to today’s Quintana). Otherwise, forget it.
So what’s on hand for the other spots? Mike Burrows and Quinn Priester are among the top options, but won’t be choices for a while. Burrows, at least, should get an outside shot in Spring Training, but he won’t because he’ll be on the Wallet Development List until June. Priester may not have to deal with that chicanery because his ideal timeline probably keeps him in Triple-A until June anyway.
But there’s a surprising number of other possibilities.
Johan Oviedo – St. Louis decided Oviedo was a reliever and he pitched much better out of the bullpen for them, so the Pirates decided he’d be a starter. The Pirates successfully reversing a Cardinals’ decision isn’t something you’d bet on at any odds, but this time it may work out. Except for one meltdown, Oviedo pitched well over seven starts. He sits at over 96 mph and has a good slider. It’s surprising the Cards weren’t able to get further with him, but he won’t turn 25 until next March. He’ll probably have a leg up for one of the remaining spots.
Bryse Wilson – Wilson’s been consistently frustrating since the Pirates acquired him. If you check the Statcast data, his main skill is giving up extremely hard contact. The latest tease is a splitter that’s replaced his change. This supposedly explained Wilson throwing eight shutout innings in his last start of the season. The Pirates seem determined to keep Wilson as a starter, but there’s a lot of evidence that his stuff just isn’t good enough. Maybe the splitter will work well for him in relief.
Zach Thompson – In a way, Thompson’s problem is Bryse Wilson, or vice versa. They’re both trade acquisitions with, at best, fifth starter stuff whom the team is obviously desperate to salvage. Among MLB starters with 80+ innings, they had the fourth (Wilson) and 15th (Thompson) worst ERAs. (This sort of horror-factoid is part of the Cherington regime’s stock in trade.) Thompson’s story is a bit different. While Wilson had a magical ability to allow three runs in every single start (if any of his starts had been rained out, I’m sure he’d still have allowed three runs), Thompson was actually outstanding for a two-month stretch. The rest of the time he was awful on a level Wilson never reached.
So the questions become, How long do you keep trying to salvage these guys as starters? And, if starting success remains elusive, How many failed fifth starters can you carry in one bullpen, especially after you blew a bunch of games late in the year because you had no late-inning relievers? The Pirates already have Wil Crowe, Duane Underwood, Jr., and Chase De Jong, all of whom they seem to regard as bullpen mainstays and none of whom has any business trying to close or set up the closer. How long do they keep trying to pursue mediocrity, especially in such large volume that there’s no room for actual, potential upgrades?
Luis Ortiz – Ortiz is, of course, going to run into service time manipulation. Just pretending for a moment, though, that Bob Nutting’s voracious wallet didn’t run the team, it’d be fun to see Ortiz open the 2023 season in the rotation. (The prospect-hound types are pretending now that they knew about Ortiz all along, but that’s not how I remember it.) He’s got stuff to work through. For one thing, whatever happens with him seems to happen all at once. If he gives up four hits in six innings, three of them will come in a row, together with a walk or two. And left-handed hitters are definitely a problem. But the stuff can be so dominant, more so than Priester or Burrows, that it’s not at all implausible that the majors might be the best place for Ortiz to work on the negative things.
Miguel Yajure – Not going well. His velocity was back in 2022, but he was terrible anyway. This is not looking like a just-needs-to-get-healthy situation any more. When I think of the Pirates’ rotation depth, Yajure doesn’t come to mind these days. The Pirates have used three options on Yajure, but Ethan Hullihen reports that he’s eligible for a fourth. They’re going to need it.
Cody Bolton – As far as I know, the Pirates have never definitively delineated the plan here. Bolton started most of the time in 2022, but generally only went three innings. He missed 2021 with a knee injury, not arm trouble, so you wouldn’t automatically assume the Pirates figure he won’t stand up to a starting role. Maybe they see him as a starter, or maybe as a middle reliever or in an opener-type role. Whatever, he had a good season in 2022, especially considering all the time he’d missed. He should be in the running for something or other next spring, if they don’t lose him to Rule 5.
Blake Cederlind – The Pirates supposedly were going to try Cederlind as a starter, but his 2022 season disappeared due to setbacks in his Tommy John recovery. He’s now expected to be ready for Spring Training. Obviously, he’s not going to be an option, starting or relieving, for a while. Pitching roles are getting a lot more flexible than they were in the Huntington days, maybe in part due to Dewey Robinson. Anyway, I wouldn’t bet against Cederlind popping up at some point, maybe as a starter.
The 2023 Rotation
With all this in mind, personally I’d be most intrigued by a rotation of Keller, Contreras, Brubaker, Oviedo and Ortiz, unless of course they sign Quintana or somebody similar.
I find it hard to believe, though, that the Pirates will give up on Wilson or Thompson just yet, which is fine, as long as they’re realistic about it.
By June, with Burrows and Priester hopefully in the picture, and maybe somebody like Bolton or Yajure becoming an option — or something even further out there like Kyle Nicolas or Osvaldo Bido — the Pirates could be 7-8 deep, or more, in starting possibilities just with the pitchers on hand now.
