We don’t do many updates with our prospect rankings. We release a preseason ranking and a mid-season update. The preseason ranking has evolved to the point where we release an “in progress” version in December, only to release the updated list after Spring Training ends and right before the minor league season begins.
The reason for the lack of updates is number one to protect the integrity of the rankings. I don’t particularly like the mid-season update as much, because it can be easy to let smaller sample sizes cloud your view on a player, especially when the season is going on.
The bigger reason is because when we do our rankings, we tear everything down and start from scratch, rating every single prospect in the system and creating a list from those ratings, rather than keeping the old list intact and moving players around.
So it’s difficult for me to project who could be the top prospect next year, or predicting where individual players could end up. I’d need John Dreker and Wilbur Miller to provide their input first, and I’d have to take into account the combined rankings and evaluations for other players.
With that disclaimer out of the way, I wanted to talk about Cody Bolton, because if I had to pick someone as a sleeper for the future number one prospect in the system, it would be Bolton. And I’m wondering what it would take for that future to be “heading into the 2020 season.”
We had Bolton ranked 13th in the 2019 Prospect Guide, and that was with some questions about how he’d return from what was described to us as minor forearm soreness, which required a PRP injection in August, and ended his 2018 season with just nine starts and 44.1 innings.
Bolton is off to a great start this year in Bradenton. Prior to last night’s outing (and before this article was written, not that the outing changed my view of him), he had an 0.77 ERA in his first six starts, with a 9.3 K/9 and a 1.8 BB/9. My assignment for Baseball America this month was to focus on a draft success story where the team landed a good prospect in the later rounds. This player had to be a current prospect in the minors, so it was a look at who has really improved their stock since being drafted. Bolton was my choice, and you can read my article here to see what is going right for him this year.
The Pirates could be graduating a lot of prospects this year. Kevin Newman (ranked 7th in the preseason) is maybe a week or two away from losing prospect eligibility. Cole Tucker (3), Bryan Reynolds (8), and Jason Martin (10) have all played in the majors this year, with Tucker and Reynolds having the best shots to lose their eligibility. There’s also the possibility that Mitch Keller (1) and/or Ke’Bryan Hayes (2) could come up in the second half and lose their eligibility.
It’s going to be easy to move up the rankings just based on the projected graduating prospects alone. But looking at who is ahead of Bolton, there aren’t many players who could challenge him for the top spot if he continues down the current path.
First, a quick recap on why I’m so high on Bolton. He features a 93-96 MPH fastball that has been hitting 97 this year. He’s got good control on the fastball, and good movement, especially from the two-seam. He’s added a cutter this year, trying to make his out pitch more consistent, all while playing off the two-seam well. He’s also worked to improve his changeup to play off the four seam. The results have been good so far, and I could see more room for improvement, and more room for him to add velocity.
Here’s a video of Bolton recording a strikeout last night:
https://www.instagram.com/p/BxduchFAYE0/
I don’t want to project that Bolton will be lights out to this extent. He ran into trouble in the third inning last night, but didn’t look as bad as the stat line would indicate, and his pitches were moving well. He’ll have his issues, but for the most part, he’s got the stuff to continue pitching well, and continue moving up the ranks.
Ke’Bryan Hayes would look like the obvious top prospect if he doesn’t graduate this year. Oneil Cruz has a ton of upside, and could compete with any player in the system for the top spot on tools alone. I could see him making the top three, but there’s a chance that Bolton could be more polished with good upside for himself.
I don’t see Travis Swaggerty or Kevin Kramer as number one prospect guys. They’ll be highly rated due to low floors, and they could end up as average or better starters, but that’s about their limit. The same would go for Jason Martin, Will Craig, and JT Brubaker on the pitching side.
That just leaves Calvin Mitchell as the only remaining guy who started the season ahead of Bolton. Mitchell is also off to a great start this year in Bradenton, showing more power (in a pitcher friendly league) while not seeing a big impact to his strikeouts or batting average. I’ve felt since he was drafted that Mitchell has the chance to be an impact guy, primarily due to his raw power, and we’re starting to get a glimpse of that power now.
Mitchell and Cruz could challenge Bolton for the top spot, and Hayes would probably be the easy choice if he doesn’t graduate this year. That would still make Bolton the top pitcher in the system. I don’t see anyone behind him who could pass him this year (maybe in the future with some, like Tahnaj Thomas, or Travis MacGregor if he returns without any issues after Tommy John). There are a few hitters who could rise up and challenge him, with Lolo Sanchez being a prime contender.
I could see Bolton being an easy top five prospect in the system next year if he keeps this up, with an easy path to being the top pitching prospect, and contending with some high upside bats.
There’s something more important than prospect rankings, and that’s the actual upside. This is harder to pin down for Bolton at this stage, as he has only thrown a little over a month in high-A, and hasn’t been challenged yet in Double-A. You typically start to see a clearer picture of a guy’s upside in Double-A and beyond.
I’d actually be surprised if Bolton reaches Double-A this year. That’s not because of the narrative that the Pirates delay the promotions for their prospects. It’s more that they might want to focus on his inning total this year, and challenge him more next year. He had 44.1 innings last year, plus some additional innings during the month of April in extended Spring Training. He’s got 37.2 innings already this year, with three and a half months remaining.
The Pirates are already picking times to limit his innings. He was originally scheduled to start on Saturday, but was pushed back to last night to give him a bit of a break. He’s back on a five day schedule now, but they’ll be picking other times this year to give him extra rest and control his innings.
Perhaps they could get aggressive with him and move him up to Altoona at some point this year, but it will be difficult to get a good read on him with his current innings situation. If he struggles, you won’t know if it’s because of the increased innings, initial challenges at a new and higher level, or actual cause for concern.
For that reason, it would be difficult for him to move up to the top spot this year, unless you wanted to get really aggressive with his projection. But he’s definitely become a guy to watch, and a candidate to be the top prospect in the system, while definitely a guy who will be one of the top prospects in the system, assuming he isn’t already there.
