Keith Law posted his top 20 prospects list for the Pittsburgh Pirates (subscription required) on Tuesday morning. From his top 100 list, we already knew that the top six spots were Austin Meadows, Josh Bell, Mitch Keller, Tyler Glasnow, Kevin Newman and Ke’Bryan Hayes. It’s technically called his top ten list, so today’s release added the final four names to that group, though Law expanded the list to include ten players who missed the top ten and ranked them in order, giving us a top 20 list.
The 7-10 spots on his list went to (in order) Elias Diaz, Cole Tucker,Nick Kingham and Gage Hinsz. The 11-20 spots were Will Craig, Alen Hanson, Yeudy Garcia, Luis Escobar, Braeden Ogle, Taylor Hearn, Steven Brault, Travis MacGregor, Dovydas Neverauskas and Stephen Alemais. Law has a brief write-up on each player and I won’t give away too much since it’s a subscription site, but there are some notes to discuss.
If you read the reports, it’s a little surprising the Pirates were ranked as his fourth best farm system, though some evaluators prefer top end prospects over depth and factor that into their farm system rankings. With six Pirates in his top 74 prospects, that’s a good shot for impact talent in his mind. Law sees Elias Diaz as an everyday backstop within the next two seasons, so that’s higher praise than we usually see, but the reports take a quick drop-off after that. He said Cole Tucker didn’t look the same in his return and he’s not sure if he will be a shortstop in the future unless his arm strength improves.
From there he went down Kingham possibly becoming a fourth starter due to his command of three average pitches, followed by Hinsz being more likely to end up as a reliever than a starter. I will note than Law doesn’t even mention Hinsz’s curveball and we had a scout call it a plus pitch last year. From my personal viewings, it looked like a plus pitch at times and was effective against Low-A hitters. Those modest projections in your top ten doesn’t say much for the depth of the system.
Alen Hanson is 12th for him and while Law mentions that Hanson will be 24 years old this entire season, he notes that he’s out of options and his hitting doesn’t justify carrying him in the majors at this point. If Hanson didn’t have plus speed and the ability to play multiple infield positions, I’d agree that he wouldn’t be a good bench option at this point. Part of Hanson’s struggles come from him being able to hit homers. He’s been known to often swing for the fences, even though he himself acknowledges that he’s better as someone who uses the whole field and creates havoc on the bases. Acknowledging that approach and actually taking that approach are two different things.
That ranking and summary for Hanson points to Law not liking the depth of the system. We had Hanson 20th on our list and it sounds like we actually like him better. I’ve pointed out before that people may see two players exactly the same, but disagree where that player should fall in the system based on his potential value in the majors. This would be a good example of that situation.
For comparison sake to Law’s list, you can check out the top Pirates prospects lists from Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Minor League Ball and Baseball America. After MLB Pipeline releases their list, we will average out the rankings to get a composite top ten.
For reference purposes, here is Law’s top ten from last year:
1. Tyler Glasnow
2. Austin Meadows
3. Kevin Newman
4. Josh Bell
5. Ke’Bryan Hayes
6. Harold Ramirez
7. Jameson Taillon
8. Cole Tucker
9. Alen Hanson
10. Reese McGuire
