On Saturday night, Luis Ortiz pitched the Pittsburgh Pirates to a 3-0 victory over the Cleveland Guardians.
Ortiz went six shutout innings, allowing one hit, three walks, and struck out five. It was a continuation of a breakout season for Ortiz, who has a 3.19 ERA in 113 innings this year. His role was increased starting in June, and he’s put up a 3.17 ERA in 82.1 innings since that point, working as a long reliever, then a member of the rotation.
There was a slump for about a month from Ortiz. In five starts from July 26th to August 19th, he had a 6.26 ERA in 27.1 innings, with his one good outing in that stretch seeing him allow two runs in five innings. He’s since rebounded, throwing back-to-back six shutout inning starts.
Ortiz is in his age-25 season, and is showing the results that were hoped for when he broke out as a top prospect in 2022. He arrived in the majors that year showing promise, but struggled last year in his rookie season. He was moved to the bullpen this year, but has more than earned his way back into the rotation, possibly for the long-term.
The Growing Rotation Depth
The Pirates are led in the long-term by the trio of Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jared Jones. Ortiz looks like one of the best options who can join that trio in the back of the rotation.
They also have Johan Oviedo returning from the injured list next season. Oviedo was one of the best starters on the team last year, putting up a 4.31 ERA in 177.2 innings in his age-25 season, while showing the best swing and miss stuff in the 2023 rotation. He went down with Tommy John at the end of the year, but should be ready to return to the majors in 2025.
Bailey Falter has added a back of the rotation lefty this year, with a 4.41 ERA in 116.1 innings. I’ve written in the past about how Falter has been either lights out, or a disaster. That has been true this season. Of his 23 starts, he has 13 with an ERA under 4.00 (including ten with an ERA of 3.00 or less). He has ten starts with an ERA over 5.00 (including eight with a 9.00 ERA or higher).
Right now, Ortiz is positioning himself as the number four starter next season, due to his consistency. He would be followed by Falter or Oviedo.
Prospects on the Rise
The rotation depth looks better when you look down to the top level of the minor league system.
Bubba Chandler is the top prospect in the system, and has been lighting up Triple-A since his promotion in early August. Through four starts with Indianapolis, Chandler has a 1.17 ERA in 23 innings, with a 28:6 K/BB.
Thomas Harrington has also shown early promise at the Triple-A level. He has a 3.81 ERA in 28.1 innings across five starts, with a 24:4 K/BB. This follows a 2.24 ERA in 68.1 innings in Double-A Altoona, with a 74:10 K/BB.
The Pirates could see both Chandler and Harrington join the Major League rotation in 2025, which will really make for a crowded rotation. Assuming Skenes, Keller, and Jones are safe in their spots and healthy, the additions of Chandler and Harrington would create an interesting competition with Ortiz, while bumping Oviedo and Falter out of the mix.
Braxton Ashcraft and Mike Burrows provide additional depth to the group. Ashcraft is currently injured again with a forearm issue, and could be better used in a relief role long-term. Burrows is returning from Tommy John, and has a 3.27 ERA in 22 innings with Indianapolis since rejoining the Triple-A level. He also has a 25:5 K/BB.
A Need For Offense
With so much valuable rotation depth, the Pirates could turn some of these starters into much needed hitters for 2025.
They already took this approach at the recent trade deadline. Quinn Priester was traded for Nick Yorke, and High-A starter Patrick Reilly was traded for Billy Cook. So far, Yorke and Cook have looked like they could help a future Major League offense, with each having the upsides of average starters capable of playing multiple spots on the field.
The starters listed above would have more value than Priester or Reilly, capable of adding someone who could make a more immediate impact. The Pirates have also signed a left-handed free agent every offseason under General Manager Ben Cherington, and could boost their depth with a similar signing from the outside.
Offensively, the Pirates rank as one of the worst groups in the majors this year, and they’ve been a bottom-third group for awhile. Their pitching has taken a step forward this year, with the rotation looking like a top ten group, and one of the best in the majors when everyone is clicking.
With zero moves, their depth chart by this time next year would run ten deep with internal options, with a 6-10 group that would include Ortiz, Oviedo, Falter, Ashcraft, and Burrows. This is a group that has plenty of depth to trade for offense.
Pirates Prospect Watch
Anthony Solometo had his best start of the season on Saturday for Altoona. The left-handed pitcher was at one time mentioned in the same conversation as the starters above. He’s struggled all season in Double-A, but hopefully his six shutout innings on Saturday is the start of him turning things around down the stretch. Read about all of Saturday’s minor league action in the latest Pirates Prospect Watch.
