If his rookie season ended today, Paul Skenes would have a 1.99 ERA in 131 innings at the Major League level across 22 starts. That would come with 167 strikeouts, an 0.96 WHIP, and 11 wins.
Last week I made an argument for Skenes to be the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year. On Sunday, the right-hander threw five shutout innings against the Cincinnati Reds, leading the Pittsburgh Pirates to a 2-0 victory. Skenes struck out nine in the start, paving the way in the shutout effort.
The splinker from Skenes was his most-used pitch. A combination of a sinker and a split-finger, it had six whiffs on 19 swings, with three called strikes for a 33% called and swinging strike rate.
Skenes paired the splinker with his four-seam fastball, which got as high as 100.2 MPH, and averaged 99.2. The pitch wasn’t a swing and miss offering on Sunday, with two whiffs on 12 swings.
His best secondary offering was his changeup, which had seven whiffs on seven swings out of eight pitches. The 86-88 MPH pitch was effective at getting chases, with an 80% swing rate out of the zone. Skenes got a swing and miss on all three changeups inside the zone, along with four of five outside of the zone.
When the Pirates drafted Skenes, he looked like a generational pitcher due to his high velocity fastball, plus slider, and ability to improve his game quickly. He threw six pitches on Sunday, led by one of the best individual pitches in the majors, from one of the best individual pitchers.
If the season ended today, Skenes would rank first overall in ERA among pitchers with 130+ innings. He’d rank second in that group of 90 pitchers in strikeout rate, while ranking second with a 2.48 FIP. Skenes is one of the biggest threats to Chris Sale’s Cy Young push, with similar numbers across seven fewer starts.
Those seven fewer starts should get Sale the award.
The Cy Young quality ratios across 22 starts should get Skenes the Rookie of the Year award.
Three Pirates Observations
The Pirates beat the Reds 2-0 on Sunday. Here were three things which stood out from the win:
- Oneil Cruz hit his 21st homer of the year in the first inning. Traveling 442 feet at 106.9 MPH, the homer gave Skenes the lead before he had to throw a single pitch. Cruz was in center field this game, and seems to be handling the move to the new position well. Aside from a highlight reel diving catch over the weekend, he’s looked comfortable and confident at the new spot, and his hitting definitely hasn’t dropped off.
- In the fifth inning, Nick Yorke gave the Pirates a 2-0 lead with his first Major League home run. The recently promoted prospect was acquired at the trade deadline for RHP Quinn Priester. After the deal, Yorke hit .355/.431/.507 with two homers and 17 doubles for Indianapolis. The home runs didn’t come until September, making this the third homer of the month for the middle infielder. Yorke was playing second base, with Nick Gonzales at shortstop.
- The bullpen combined to allow one hit and one walk in four shutout innings to close out the win. In order, Colin Holderman, Carmen Mlodzinski, Dennis Santana, and Aroldis Chapman each pitched a scoreless inning. Chapman pitched the ninth, striking out two batters in a perfect inning. Mlodzinski stood out with three whiffs in his inning — two on the fastball and one on the slider.
Pirates Prospect Watch
The 2024 minor league season concluded on Sunday, with Mike Burrows on the mound for Indianapolis. The right-hander struck out ten in his final start in a year where he returned from Tommy John. Matt Gorski also hit his 23rd homer of the season. Read about the Indianapolis victory in the final Pirates Prospect Watch of the season.
