It’s very unlikely that my words on the MLB Draft make much of a difference to the overall process.
Last year, I went hard in the paint to say that the Pittsburgh Pirates should draft Paul Skenes first overall. This included a column saying The Pirates Can’t Pass on the Chance to Draft Paul Skenes, and a segment on the Pirates’ pre-game show, telling Pirates fans ahead of the draft how good Skenes was, and that this was not the year to save money for the middle rounds.
At best, I put my thumb on the scale enough to influence decision makers to challenge the fear of pitcher injuries enough to accept the gift of a generational pitcher in Pittsburgh for once in forever.
It is interesting to me that the Pirates changed their amateur scouting department after the draft. Joe DelliCarri had been in the role since 2012, and was retained by General Manager Ben Cherington through the first four drafts of his rebuild, including two first overall picks. The first one saw them go under-slot for the idea of a safer bat in Henry Davis, saving money for the middle rounds. By that point, DelliCarri led drafts had a horrible track record of selecting college hitters, and a good ability to identify pitching talent. Development also may have played a role on the hitting side.
My concern with the Pirates taking a hitter last year over Skenes was that they had such a horrible track record at drafting and developing hitters, and really didn’t have a strong track record of developing pitchers to their ceiling. Skenes seemed like a guy who didn’t need to be developed much, and the pitching development in this system is far more reliable for what he would have needed — which ended up being a splitter/sinker combo called the splinker, grading as one of the best pitches in baseball this year.
The Pirates now have Justin Horowitz as their amateur scouting director, setting the stage for a new approach toward deciding between all of the campaigns in the scouting room during each pick. Horowitz was added from Boston over the offseason, after starting his career as an intern when Cherington was the General Manager of the Red Sox.
Cherington’s farm system doesn’t have a good development track record. Most of their actual development has been outsourced to independent facilities, or has been player-initiated. Their best success story on the hitting side has been Nick Gonzales, who took it upon himself to build a facility in his back yard this past offseason, while working to a new swing. At best, the Pirates know what a player needs to focus on, without knowing how to teach the player the improvement.
My hope is that Cherington has been building a system, led by John Baker, which now needs proper implementation and coordination from the draft process to make the right selections for the system being built. But, that’s almost a blind hope.
I am skeptical of the hitting development in this system, even with a new person making the picks. That said, the 2024 draft might offer the Pirates a great opportunity to land hitting talent, which could help balance the scales of their rebuild that is heavily based on elite pitching.
The Pirates pick ninth overall, and they should end up with an above-average future value talent falling to them with the pick. They might even get an upgrade to their growing window of contention, with a guy who could arrive in 2025 or 2026.
Below is my look at the top ten players in the draft, and the best potential outcomes for the Pirates at ninth overall.
There’s No Paul Skenes This Year
Ahh. A normal draft year.
Remember that term from last year’s draft discourse? “In a normal draft year”, Wyatt Langford could have gone first overall, even if Dylan Crews was in the same draft. “In a normal draft year”, you could justify the advanced prep approaches of Max Clark and Walker Jenkins, plus slot savings for the later rounds. “In a normal draft year”, Dylan Crews gives you that single hitting prospect who will have their every move monitored by an entire fan base, hoping that this single player will be the eventual Saviour who can finally turn this franchise around with an elite hitter. No pressure.
Last year wasn’t “a normal draft year”, because there was a player who showed he could rise above the pressure.
This year feels like one of those “normal draft years”. So, take a moment to enjoy the good fortune the Pirates received in winning the MLB Draft lottery the year Paul Skenes was available.
I’ll wait.
It’s actually beneficial to breath in four seconds, hold your breath for seven, and exhale through your mouth for eight seconds. Meditate. Meditate on the magnificence of Paul Skenes pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Meditate on the relief that they made the right call last year, have made some good overall calls since Cherington took over the system, and might just further improve one of their best processes. But overall, meditate that the Pirates were fortunate to pick first when Skenes was in the draft.
No offense to Charlie Condon, Travis Bazzana, or JJ Wetherholt, who are the top three from this year’s draft class. There isn’t a Skenes available. There might be a Crews.
Since the Pirates don’t pick first overall, I want to use this year’s Draft Preview column to question the classic amateur scouting approach for hitters. There are some quality pitchers in this draft, and I’ll get to them after all of the hitters. That’s mostly because I think the Pirates, at pick number nine, have a great chance to land a future above-average hitter in the majors, and possibly someone who can help them during the current window. They’d just have to draft for need.
Positional Values and the Ability to Hit
There is a positional valuation system in the draft. Players who play in the middle of the field are more valuable. They are involved with the most plays, and thus, they spend more focus time per game than the positions on the corners.
If a player can catch quick moving pitches, and work to manage and memorize a pitching staff, he goes behind the plate.
If a player has the ability to make quick reactions, range a long way for a ball hit at fast speeds on the ground, grab the ball mid-hop with their glove like it’s a natural extension of their hand while sliding to a stop; followed by standing and firing an accurate throw to first base in time to beat a runner sprinting as fast as they can… then they’re a shortstop.
If they’ve got an elite arm and quick reactions, but lack range, they go to third.
If the arm isn’t as quality, or the range or reactions aren’t as sharp, they may move to second base to shorten the throws and reduce the amount of fast plays in a right-handed hitting league.
If a player has a glove so good that he can catch any throw fired in his general vicinity, with a stretch, a leap, a tag, and a plea, then he’s a first baseman.
In the outfield, you want a guy who can play right in the middle of the field, with the ability to range long distances in any direction, reactions to charge in the right direction the moment the ball leaves the bat about 250 feet away, speed to cover the ground before the ball lands, the ability to contour your glove to catch as you’re running, leaping, sliding, diving, or preparing to throw a ball hundreds of feet with accuracy to allow the catcher time to tag out the runner trying to score. Outfield is tiring work, due to all of the running done during the game, and center field requires the best athlete. If shortstop is a sprint, center field is the marathon.
For those who can do the marathon, but without the accuracy of the glove, range, arm, or reaction times off the bat, there’s left field.
Players who have a plus arm strength and catch-and-throw ability to accurately launch a ball to the plate or third base to save a potential run play in right field.
None of this considers the hitting side of the game. Even after playing nine innings running and diving and catching and throwing and tagging, every player needs enough focus to be able to hit when the terrifying time comes when they have to step in the box and face Paul Skenes, or someone just as good as him.
Hitting is a god damn horror movie.
Think about standing in the box against a guy who could accidentally slip and hit you with a 100 MPH projectile. But you’ve got to stand in calm, with a clear head, ready to defend an imaginary zone on top of a 17-inch plate — ranging from the mid-point between your shoulders and belt all the way down to your knees. And if you don’t swing and hit that pitch, it will be called a strike, and you only get three of those. The pitcher can miss four times. Not only do the pitchers get to plan what is coming, they get more forgiveness in each at-bat. The saving grace for a hitter is that you can keep fouling off pitches when you get to two strikes, which is like kicking through doors as the slasher slowly stalks toward you with unimaginable pacing, one door behind you.
Hitting is difficult because all of those reaction times in the field and all of the athleticism that allows you to move your body one way suddenly turns into a completely different game. Now, you need to guess in the blink of an eye where a pitch will end up, based on your projection from half an eye-blink out, giving you time to launch your bat to the spot with enough speed and force to connect with the baseball in a way that only fans or grass can catch it. Or, the Allegheny River.
It doesn’t matter how good you are in the field. The fans just want people who hit the ball to them from the plate.
People show up early for the phenomenon. They make long-running social media campaigns on beating the odds. It’s the fan game of the hitting game within the position player game. Like winning the bonus round on a slot machine. The feeling when the ball leaves the bat and it’s coming to your section gets everyone around live in their natural selves and reaction times.
That’s the feeling a hitter has on the field, but especially at the plate, at a microscopic rate. And they have to provide that focus during about 20-25 pitches per game, on average. That’s in addition to the focus needed to make the reactions and the throws and the tags on the field.
I feel so tired just thinking about it all.
The Top Three in 2024
JJ Wehterholt is a shortstop from West Virginia. He’s 5-foot-10, 190 pounds, with a 60 run-grade and the average arm and fielding that would project him to be better at second base. That’s because Wetherholt projects as the best pure hitter in the class, while also having above-average power. The plus running plays out on the bases. He hit .449/.517/.782 with 16 homers and 35 stolen bases. He does have a history of hamstring issues, which raises questions about long-term durability at any position.
If Wetherholt can hit that well at the NCAA level, with that much force and accuracy, while also stealing 35 bases, and dedicating the amount of focus and reactions and throws and plays needed to play shortstop, then it shows a high level of total game focus. Definitely not enough needed to do the same at the Major League level. But, he’s starting from a higher point than anyone else in this draft.
Travis Bazzana projects as one of the best hitters in this draft, improving all three seasons at Oregon State. At 5′ 9″, 170 pounds, he showed great discipline in the strike zone, with elite bat-to-ball skills, and the ability to hit for power, with applied force to his contact. He may have the ability to play center field, and if a team wanted to test his overall focus and energy and hitting outcomes from that position, he’d be worthy of the first overall pick. He’s still a guy who projects to be able to hit, while playing a medium-energy defensive position.
The player who stands out in this draft to me is Charlie Condon. He’s a 6′ 6″, 215 pound player who is a plus hitter with elite power potential. He didn’t play much until 2023, but hit 25 home runs in his first year with Georgia. This year, he hit 37 homers with a 1.565 OPS. He played five different positions, including third base, where a team picking at the top might want to maximize his potential value. He profiles as a corner outfielder, who could play right field, dedicating most of his game-energy to the hitting side. He also has played first base, and that always seems like a last resort.
I wonder what might happen if a team drafts a pure hitter and just throws him in right field from day one and commits to him learning the hitting part of the game first? Condon seems like he could be first to the majors if a team didn’t try to maximize his defensive focus, seeing how much they can take away from the hitting side that will get him drafted first overall. And yet, any team picking first overall deserves to try to get that power hitting third baseman in the majors. And Condon deserves the chance as well.
The Pirates are picking ninth, so they’re not going to get any of these three hitters. But if they take a hitter, they could find themselves a Wyatt Langford type player, who could reach the majors rapidly if he sticks to one hitting-friendly position.
Three College Hitters Who Could Fall to Number Nine
I don’t think the Pirates are going to get a shot at Jac Caglianone, but I think he’d be the ideal player to drop to them. A first baseman and left-handed pitcher, he has elite power, along with a plus fastball, potential for above-average control, and three more average or better pitches. There’s a lot of possibility from the 6′ 5″, 217 pounder from Florida.
His flaws at the plate are what separate him from the top three hitters. Caglianone had a 43% chase rate, showing that his reactions at the plate are not as discerning as a player who stays within their zone. With such a larger chase rate, Caglianone widens his zone more often than most, which is a gift to Major League pitchers. He’d need to reduce his zone, and possibly might need to adjust a steep uphill swing. He’s wild on the mound as well, and it’s possible that if he shifted to focusing on hitting-only, he would be able to dedicate a more controlled approach with his best energy and focus each week going toward hitting homers.
The Pirates definitely don’t need pitching, and they need a long-term first baseman. The lefty Caglianone would be a great option, with the chance to add pitching back to the mix if he happens to crush it at the plate.
Braden Montgomery has been connected to the Pirates in mock drafts. He’s a 6′ 2″, 201 pound outfielder and a switch hitter at the plate. A two-way player who hasn’t pitched as much in recent years, he can still get up to 98 MPH on the mound, and profiles as a right fielder. Montgomery projects to have plus power, with better results from the left side. He improved his strikeout and walk rates in 2024, and profiles for above-average hitting. He could be tried in center field for overall value, or his bat could be accelerated to the majors in right-field.
The Pirates need outfielders, and especially a center fielder. That said, Montgomery would rank third on my list of these college hitters.
The guy who the Pirates might regret passing on is Nick Kurtz. The first baseman from Wake Forest hits for plus power from a 6′ 6″, 230 pound frame. Kurtz hit .306/.531/.763 with 22 homers in 260 plate appearances in his junior year with Wake Forest. He’s the opposite of Caglianone, never expanding his strike zone, and offering a quick bat and a plus power/contact combo within the zone. He made 80% contact in his career at Wake Forest, and has reached base 51% of the time in three years of Division-I baseball.
The knock against him is that he’s a first baseman, which is a lower energy and focus defensive position. He plays the position well enough to potentially be a plus defender. Baseball America notes he moves well around the bag and has reliable hands. I think his reactions to the zone at the plate would play well in receive throws on the field.
The Pirates need a long-term first baseman, and Kurtz has shown an ability to play the position, while having advanced focus at the plate with power behind his accurate swings. He could be this year’s Langford, as a guy who can ascend to the majors quickly and hit for power, with a chance to improve as his career goes on. He might not have the elite power of Caglianone, but he’ll get more hits, and get on base more often.
You’re not supposed to draft for need, but the Pirates do need a first baseman, and Kurtz projects to be good enough to remain at the position at the Major League level. Sticking him at one position and letting him hit almost immediately against upper-level pitching would give the Pirates a chance to add to their current window from this draft.
It seems likely that Kurtz will be there at number nine, and Caglianone will not. I’d take Kurtz at nine if he’s there, as I think he has less of a need for development, avoiding a concern with the Pirates’ system. That almost would make him the better pick over Caglianone for the Pirates, even if Caglianone’s elite power and two-way ability makes him more exciting.
Nick Kurtz would be a great pick for the Pirates at ninth overall. Depending on the pitching…
This Ain’t a Scene, It’s a God Damn Arms Race
There are two pitchers who seem like they could add to the Pitching Factory that is developing in Pittsburgh. You could say that the Pirates don’t need pitching, and bank on the current guys in the system. But if the arms are available, why not draft until the best rotation in the game and a loaded minor league system are realities?
Chase Burns from Wake Forest is a 6′ 4″, 195 pound right-hander who has the ability to hit 101 MPH with his fastball, averaging 98 MPH. He also has an upper-80s slider that Baseball America described as “hellacious”. We all know it. Hitting is a god damn horror story. With a 70-grade fastball/slider duo, and a chance for an average or better changeup and curveball, Burns would fit in perfectly with Skenes and Jared Jones in the majors. He seems like he’d be more like Jones, getting by initially with an elite two-pitch mix, while developing the other pitches over time in the majors. I also like the intensity of Burns on the mound.
Hagen Smith is a 6′ 3″, 215 pound left-hander from Arkansas who offers 100 MPH velocity from the other side of the rubber. He averages 95-96 from a low-three-quarters slot, with the ability to hit triple digits. He’s got a mid-80s slider that had a 56% whiff rate in 2024. He also throws a changeup that needs work to get to average. He profiles as a 70-grade fastball/slider duo pitcher, with swing and miss from each pitch. There is some reliever risk, and he has already undergone Tommy John surgery. Smith offers rare stuff from the left-side, which is his big appeal.
I’d take Burns over any of the college hitters outside of Condon. If Smith was available, I’d consider him over Montgomery, as I think the Pirates’ pitching development could do well for a pitcher like him, who has already shows improvements to his game with better strike-throwing this year. But I think the Pirates would be better going for a bat-first guy like Kurtz or Caglianone over Smith.
Testing the Development System
All of the players above have the chance to help the Pirates during their current window of contention. Kurtz, Burns, or Caglianone at first base only offer the chance to arrive in the majors in 2025-26, and give the team another starter from this area of talent acquisition.
If the Pirates want to play the long-term upside game, they’d be better off going with one of the two prep hitters.
Konnor Griffin is a 6′ 4″, 210 pound player out of Jackson Prep in Mississippi. He grades with the ability for plus power, elite running, and the ability to play shortstop, or center field if size is an issue. He has average hit abilities, with a swing that can get too long. He stole 85 bases in high school after dropping football and basketball. He can pitch, with the potential for a plus fastball, plus curveball, and average control. Griffin is an athlete who would be a development project with some of the highest upside of this class.
Bryce Rainer also offers that 60-grade ceiling, as a 6′ 3″, 185 pound prep player out of California. He’s got a 70-grade arm, with the ability to pitch. He prefers to be a position player. Rainer improved his hit tool this past year, and long-term could be a left-handed hitting shortstop with plus power. He might see further improvements on the offensive side of the game if he drops pitching.
If the Pirates wanted to focus on long-term upside, and they believed in their development team to turn a prep athlete into a Major League hitter at an elite position, then Griffin seems like the pick, with Rainer as a backup option. They could solve first base through other avenues, allowing them to go for the 60-grade ceiling that Griffin provides.
The Pick at Ninth Overall
It’s possible that the Pirates could go with someone ranked outside of the top ten, opting for slot savings for their middle round selections. I think they’d be passing up on an opportunity to get immediate help for their short-term push to open the contending window, or a higher ceiling player to develop.
My rankings for the Pirates are:
- Charlie Condon, OF
- Chase Burns, RHP
- JJ Wetherholt, SS
- Travis Bazzana, 2B
- Nick Kurtz, 1B
- Jac Caglianone, 1B
- Hagen Smith, LHP
- Konnor Griffin, SS
- Braden Montgomery, OF
I think Nick Kurtz is the most likely to be there for them, and his value as a safer, bat-first player who can fill a need that is absent throughout the system is of value.
There’s a feeling in the draft that first base isn’t a position that should be drafted. The idea is that a first baseman in the middle rounds with plus power grades can translate their power just as easily to the majors.
For example, Blake Burke ranks 51st overall out of Tennessee. The 6′ 3″, 240 pound left-hander gets plus power grades, but has strikeout concerns. Unlike Kurtz, Burke expands his zone too much, and doesn’t profile as a guy who can hit for average to go with the power. He also doesn’t profile as well in the field. The overall value would be lower, but you’d get power from first base. And that’s a simplified, low-value approach at an important position.
There’s also the Albert Pujols argument. Pujols was a 13th rounder, taken as a third baseman. He eventually became one of the game’s best hitters, as a first baseman. He was just an amazing scouting story, and I don’t think the Pirates should create a draft strategy for any position that is based on lucking out in the middle rounds.
If they happen to luck out in the middle rounds, that’s great. But I believe the skill of a quality bat-first player is vastly under-appreciated in today’s game. The scouting process is always asking for more. Can he play a premium position with that bat? Can he also pitch? Can he do these extras while still being one of the top five hitters in the lineup? If the answer is no, then the only question becomes “Can he hit in the majors at all?”
I think Kurtz can hit in the majors. I think his path is quicker than anyone outside of the top three position players, mostly because he won’t be asked to do much more than hit. The Pirates have such a lack of first base prospects in the system that they’ve filled the top two levels with 33-year-old Jake Lamb and 27-year-old Seth Beer for most of this season. There’s no evidence that this system can develop a first baseman, and little evidence that they can develop a hitter.
Why not take a guy who already can play first base, and already knows how to hit?
Kurtz would be my pick if he’s there, and my top four ahead of him are off the board.
