Mitch Keller allowed two runs in eight innings on Monday, leading the Pittsburgh Pirates to an 8-2 victory over the New York Mets.
The start from Keller gave him his tenth win of the season, which isn’t the most reliable metric for grading a pitcher. However, it does put Keller in rare company for reaching double-digit wins before the All-Star break. Keller has a 3.40 ERA in 111.1 innings this year, with an 8.25 K/9 and a 2.18 BB/9.
Despite this performance in the first half, Keller was not selected to the All-Star Game.
Keller ranks 33rd overall in fWAR among pitchers with 50+ innings pitched this year. That puts him ten spots ahead of Paul Skenes for the lead on the Pirates. Skenes was selected over Keller in large part due to the impact in a shorter time span. Skenes ranks second in this group in ERA, and 11th in FIP. Keller, meanwhile, ranks 51st and 45th, respectively. That puts Keller in the top-third of this group.
What makes Keller so valuable is that he’s gotten to a point in his career where he can put up these numbers over a large span of innings. Keller is currently tied for tenth in the majors in innings pitched. He hasn’t pitched less than five innings in a start since March 30th of last season. Since that Opening Day start, he’s gone 49 starts in a row with 5+ innings. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in 33 of those starts.
The Pirates signed Keller to an extension at the start of the season, giving him five years and $77 million, buying out three of his free agent seasons. The Pirates will pay Keller $15-20 million per year, starting next season through the 2028 season.
Keller is the equivalent of signing a long-term free agent. He’s in his age 28 season right now, and is in his third year in a row of showing improvements at the major league level. He made it to the majors for 100.2 innings in 2021, posting a 1.1 WAR. He improved to a 2.1 in 2022, a 3.3 in 2023, and is on pace for nearly a 4 WAR this year. In the process, Keller has improved his arsenal, adding a sinker/slider combo that gives him a six-pitch mix.
While Keller won’t be going to the All-Star Game, he gives the Pirates a reliable starter and reliable innings every fifth start. He doesn’t have the power combo of pitches that Skenes or Jared Jones have. Keller does have enough pitches and extensive experience of pitching successfully in the majors, making him a different type of pitcher.
Keller is an innings eater on a contending team. He’s a number two or three starter in an elite rotation, which is exactly the type of rotation the Pirates are forming — in part from their decision to extend him long-term.
New Draft Rankings
The MLB draft starts this Sunday, and Keith Law at The Athletic released his final top 100 prospect list. The Pirates pick ninth overall, with ten players who look worthy of the selection. Here are the top ten from Law:
- Charlie Condon, OF, Georgia
- Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
- JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia
- Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
- Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
- Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
- Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
- Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida
- Bryce Rainer, SS, Prep
- Konnor Griffin, OF/SS, Prep
The order is different, but the players are the same as the most recent rankings from Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. The Pirates are unlikely to get one of the top two guys, but after that, anything can happen, and they’ll be in a good position to see a top prospect fall to them at their pick.
Pirates Prospect Watch
Bubba Chandler threw 7.2 shutout innings last week, while Termarr Johnson batted .500 with two homers. Check out the other top performers from the last week in the latest Pirates Prospect Watch.
Pirates Prospect Watch: Big Performances From Termarr Johnson and Bubba Chandler
