The Pittsburgh Pirates had the first overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. There wasn’t a consensus best available player that year like there was with Paul Skenes in 2023. There wasn’t a Skenes type pitcher nor a Dylan Crews type college hitter to take.
Henry Davis was ranked fourth overall by Baseball America in the pre-draft rankings. MLB Pipeline had him fifth. FanGraphs had him second overall. He was the consensus best college hitter in the draft, with a chance to remain behind the plate. His bat was seen as safe enough that he could hit for enough power to justify a move to a corner spot.
The Pirates drafted Davis first overall, signing him to a bonus that was almost $2 million under slot. The decision to go signability with the first overall pick depended on two factors. Number one is that Davis was seen as a safe option to reach the majors as an average starter or better, compared to the college pitcher or prep position player competition. Number two is that the Pirates could draft and develop a group of first round talent with their excess bonus money.
With the savings, plus savings from the middle rounds, the Pirates added a group of first round talents from the prep ranks. Anthony Solometo (North Carolina), Lonnie White Jr. (Penn State), Bubba Chandler (Clemson) all had strong college commitments, and the Pirates drafted them in that order after Davis. This is MLB’s modern-day way of trading down from the first pick, and trading up with your next three. Chandler was the 20th best prospect, Solometo ranked 28th, and White ranked 32nd in Baseball America’s pre-draft ratings. The Pirates got all three with picks 37, 64, and 72.
For an organization that was rebuilding their farm system at the time with trades from their established big leaguers, the idea of developing that many first round talents was a boost to the overall depth of the prospects in the system — with the hope that this system depth would one day lead to a depth of MLB starters.
Head of the Class
Henry Davis made his MLB debut as an outfielder last season, before the Pirates committed to him behind the plate this past offseason. They haven’t given him the starter role, signing Yasmani Grandal and trading for Joey Bart early in the season. Davis is looking like a guy who can handle the catching workload. His ability to catch Jared Jones shows he can handle elite stuff, even if he’s not one of the better defensive catchers.
The bat hasn’t lived up to the “safe” grade from the pre-draft scouting reports. Davis is currently hitting .153/.267/.235 in 102 plate appearances this year. He went down to Triple-A in the month of May and hit .296/.436/.642 with seven homers in 101 plate appearances, while adjusting his swing. He’s since returned and is still swinging and missing at an alarming rate, while just hitting his first home run.
Davis appears to have an all-or-nothing approach at the plate, looking to crush the opposing pitcher with every swing. That approach could have worked in college, and throughout the minors, but it doesn’t work at the big league level. He’s not the only Pirates hitting prospect who has struggled in their development, but Davis is currently far from the pre-draft reports.
That doesn’t mean he can’t adjust. Davis only has 357 plate appearances in the majors, and only 27 games this year behind the plate. He’s got a challenge behind the plate in Bart, and Endy Rodriguez will return in 2025 to further cloud the position. The position from Davis really won’t matter if he doesn’t hit, but his catching alone isn’t good enough to keep him on the MLB roster if there are better hitting options.
The Standouts
Bubba Chandler, RHP – Chandler is currently pitching in Double-A in his age 21 season, with a 5.13 ERA in 40.1 innings. He’s shown signs of promise, signs of concern, and overall has looked better than his stat line. Had he gone to college, Chandler would have been pitching for Clemson as a draft eligible junior this year. Instead, he’s throwing mid-to-upper 90s fastballs, along with a slider to help combine for 47 strikeouts this year. He had some early season struggles last year, but once things started to click and he began taking control of his starts, he became one of the best pitchers in the system. Chandler is a driven player, and the top prospect in the system once Paul Skenes graduates. The presence of Skenes, and the emergence of Jared Jones, means the Pirates don’t need to rush Chandler to the majors.
Anthony Solometo, LHP –
