The calendar is about to turn to the month of July, which means we’re at the half-way mark for the 2024 baseball season. This is about the time when teams start promoting their top performers to higher levels, and we’ve already started to see some of that from the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The most notable promotions in the minors over the last month have been right-handed pitcher Braxton Ashcraft moving up to Triple-A, and breakout hitter Charles McAdoo moving to Double-A.
In the spirit of those two promotions, today I’m looking at one hitter and one pitcher from each level who look like they deserve promotion consideration in the second half of 2024.
Indianapolis to Pittsburgh
Braxton Ashcraft recently went on the injured list. There’s no word on his status, and the updates will be something to watch for over the next week.
Ashcraft had an 0.59 ERA in 15.1 innings across his first three starts in Triple-A. That came after putting up a 3.69 ERA in 53.2 innings with Altoona. He’s already exceeded his career total in innings, and will have to be monitored through the end of the season.
If Ashcraft returns healthy this year, the Pirates should move him to the bullpen. Not for the rest of his career, but for the current season and scenario. He can easier manage his innings increase this year, while getting his first shot in the majors in a reduced role. The idea of Ashcraft arriving in the majors this year and pitching through the end of the season as a starter is non-existent. He would eventually be shut down. Moving him to the bullpen could give the Pirates a nice relief pitching boost for the rest of the season, with a chance to move him back to the rotation next year.
On the hitting side, there aren’t any position players in Indianapolis who project as starters in the majors. Matt Gorski is batting .257/.304/.567 with 14 homers in 231 plate appearances this year. He has power, and can play positive defense at all three outfield positions. The question is whether the hitting would translate to the majors.
Gorski has a 32.5% strikeout rate this year, and a 6.9% walk rate. His swing has some disconnect between his upper and lower half. He takes a big lower half timing leg kick that sweeps out over the plate. From there, his top half collapses onto the ball as the leg drops back toward his body. The transition makes Gorski more susceptible for swing and miss, with a more difficult task of timing to variable pitches he would see in the majors.
The Pirates don’t have a great outfield situation in the majors. Gorski doesn’t look like a guy who could help give the Pirates a positive-valued starter. He might be better than the current struggling options in Jack Suwinski and Edward Olivares. Unlike Ashcraft, Gorski isn’t on the 40-man roster, which would complicate any promotion.
Altoona to Indianapolis
Last year the Pirates promoted Jared Jones from Altoona to Indianapolis in the second half. Jones took that promotion, plus some offseason work on his pitches, and ended up in the Majors on Opening Day this year.
I’m not saying the same path is likely for Bubba Chandler, but he is a guy who is looking like a promotion candidate. Chandler struck out 11 batters in 6.2 innings in his most recent start. He has a 2.76 ERA in 29.1 innings over the last month, with a 38:4 K/BB ratio.
The stuff from Chandler is elite. He throws 97-98 MPH with his fastball, along with a slider and a changeup that have both been swing and miss offerings. Chandler made strides with the slider last year, and has been working on the changeup this year. He’s also shown improvements with his control.
I think it’s likely that Chandler is a candidate for the majors by this time next year. He’s doing what he needs to do right now, pitching exceptionally in Double-A. If this continues, he should finish the season in Indianapolis.
Yoyner Fajardo was just re-acquired by the Pirates this month, after they lost him in the 2022 Rule 5 draft. I previously liked Fajardo’s ability to hit for average, which comes from a lot of torque through his midsection that leads to a quick swing and power to the pull side. He has speed on the bases, and versatility in the field, though the latter is more about finding him a position.
Since being re-acquired, Fajardo is hitting .329/.400/.357 in 80 plate appearances at the Double-A level. He moved up to Triple-A with the Twins this year, and hit .229/.274/.362, before being traded back to the Pirates for cash. Fajardo looks more like a strong depth option to help Altoona, but I think he can eventually reach the majors as a bench option, and should get another shot at Triple-A at some point.
Greensboro to Altoona
When I talked with Hunter Barco last month for my Baseball America feature, he said he’ll have a five pitch mix by this summer. Aside from that, the Pirates are easing him into pro ball for his first full season after returning from Tommy John.
Last night, the left-hander threw five no-hit innings, striking out a career-high nine batters. On the season, Barco has a 3.16 ERA in 57 innings, with a 72:22 K/BB ratio. The Pirates could choose to keep Barco at the same level all year, in order to manage his innings and pitch development. He did have some struggles at the start of June, but has rebounded well.
Last year, the Pirates promoted Braxton Ashcraft to Altoona in a similar scenario, before shutting Ashcraft down by the end of August. Ashcraft was in his return from Tommy John, and was more limited than Barco, who is in his first full-season back on the mound. I’d guess that Barco will eventually move up to the more challenging level, and it would be one of the more deserved moves in the system.
Nick Cimillo hit his 13th homer of the year last night in High-A. Drafted as a catcher, he profiles better as a first baseman, with plus raw power across two seasons in A-ball.
Cimillo was promoted to High-A last year in the second half, and hit .147/.256/.294. Those results aren’t great, but they were limited to 78 plate appearances, and saw him hit three homers. This year, Cimillo is batting .281/.399/.593 in 164 plate appearances. Those are identical numbers to what got him promoted from Single-A Bradenton last year, only with more power production this year.
What is more encouraging is the location of his power. Greensboro has a hitter-friendly home park, but Cimillo is hitting for more power on the road. His big test will be seeing how the power transitions to the Double-A level. He might struggle at first, like he did last year in the initial move to High-A. That is why it would be good to get him some early experience this year, preparing him for a full-season at the Double-A level next year.
Bradenton to Greensboro
Carlson Reed was a reliever in West Virginia before being drafted in the fourth round last year by the Pirates. They’ve moved him to the rotation, and the move has gone well in Single-A Bradenton. Reed has a 2.21 ERA in 61 innings, with a 76:33 K/BB.
When he was drafted, Reed was described as a guy with three average or better pitches, but below-average control. That report has held up, although he’s shown improvements to the control lately. Reed walked 26 batters in 39.2 innings during the first two months of the season. He walked seven batters in 21.1 innings during the month of June.
Also during the month of June, Reed posted a 1.69 ERA in those 21.1 innings, going at least five innings in each of his four starts. He had a 29:7 K/BB ratio in June, with three games of 8+ strikeouts. He’s pitched at least five innings in seven of his last nine starts.
Reed is looking like a starter. He could probably use a bigger challenge than Single-A, and would get playoff experience at the end of 2024 if he moves up to Greensboro.
Bradenton has a lot of young, raw hitters who consistently hit the ball hard, but who don’t consistently hit. The group includes RF Esmerlyn Valdez, C Omar Alfonzo, SS Keiner Delgado, SS Javier Rivas, and other players around their age 19-20 seasons. I’m not sure that I would promote any of these guys, unless it is for playoff experience at the end of the year.
The promotion candidate at this level would be Garret Forrester, who is currently on the injured list. Forrester was drafted out of Oregon State in the third round last year, and was batting .262/.421/.381 prior to the injury. He doesn’t hit for a lot of power, but excels with pitch recognition and plate patience.
The Pirates have been moving Forrester behind the plate this year, trying to maximize his batting profile. That profile won’t really be tested until he’s at the Double-A level. It would be good for the Pirates to give Forrester’s bat a challenge when he gets healthy, in addition to the challenge they’ve been giving him on defense.
FCL Pirates to Bradenton
Last year at the trade deadline, the Pirates sent Carlos Santana to the Milwaukee Brewers, getting young infielder Jhonny Severino in return. Severino is currently in his age 19 season, and is mashing in the FCL during his second season in the United States.
In 148 plate appearances this year, Severino is batting .280/.372/.576 with eight home runs, seven doubles, three triples, and eight stolen bases. He’s been playing shortstop and third base this year, which creates a bit of a challenge in moving him up.
The Pirates are getting promising production from those two positions in Bradenton. Keiner Delgado and/or Javier Rivas would likely have to move up to the next level to create playing time for Severino. As mentioned above, I’m not sure that would happen by the end of the year. Regardless, Severino is hitting like a guy who should get a shot in Single-A.
Zander Mueth is a 19-year-old right-hander who was drafted 67th overall last year. He’s got a 1.65 ERA in 32.2 innings this year in the FCL, and has been lights out this month. In his last four starts, Mueth has combined for a 0.98 ERA in 18.1 innings, with a 21:8 K/BB ratio.
Mueth features a fastball that can get up to 97-98 from a funky lower arm slot, along with swing and miss secondary stuff. He’s starting to hit his groove in the FCL, with three straight starts of five innings and zero earned runs. This level will allow him to more comfortably develop his pitches and improve his control, but he’s also looking like the most advanced pitcher at this level.
Mueth could move up to Single-A by the end of the year, but I don’t think it would be for a significant amount of time. Owen Kellington, a 2021 prep pitcher, spent his first full season exclusively in the FCL. The Pirates sent 2022 prep pitcher Michael Kennedy to Single-A during his FCL season, but Kennedy only pitched twice at the end of the year, going 4.1 innings. I think that’s the level of playing time we’ll see from Mueth at the higher level this year, if he moves up.
DSL to FCL
It’s difficult to promote players from the Dominican complex to the Pirate City complex in Bradenton. The players would need a visa, which takes time to procure. There’s also a personal maturity factor at play, which extends beyond the play on the field. How much of a personal challenge would it be to send a 19-21 year old to a new country in the middle of a season, or really, in any year, and expect them to perform?
I’m not going to break down the pitching at this level to say who should be promoted based on stats alone. I will note that RHP Jonawel Valdez was recently promoted, so it’s not impossible for players to make this in-season jump.
Valdez had a 3.00 ERA in 12 innings across three starts in the DSL this year. He struck out 20 and walked three, showing dominance and control. The 20-year-old right-hander was signed by the Pirates in December 2022, and will finish his 2024 season in the FCL.
Isaias Dipre is the hitter I would highlight at this level. Dipre missed the 2023 season with an injury, in what would have been his third season in the DSL. He didn’t show a lot of promise in the first two years, after signing with the Pirates in August 2019, just before the pandemic-lost season.
Dipre is now in his age 21 season, and is putting up the best numbers of his career. He’s batting .327/.455/.654 with four homers in 66 plate appearances. The sample size is small, but Dipre already has more homers this year than he did in 271 plate appearances between 2021-22.
Signed as a shortstop, Dipre played the infield in 2021, moved to the outfield in 2022, and has spent most of his time in 2023 as the DH, with his only field work at the corner outfield spots. He appears to be a bat-first prospect, and the bat is doing better than ever in the lowest levels.
Pirates Prospects Daily
I mentioned above the outing on Friday from Hunter Barco, who struck out nine in five no-hit innings. Read about Barco and all of the other top performers from Friday’s action in the latest Pirates Prospect Watch.
Pirates Prospect Watch: Hunter Barco Strikes Out Nine in Five No-Hit Innings
