Mitch Keller pitched 194.1 innings last year. It was an increase from his 159 inning total in 2022, which was an increase over the 128.2 innings he pitched between the majors and Triple-A in 2021.
At this point in the 2024 season, if Keller makes 32 starts, he’ll be on pace for 196.2 innings. Based on his 2023 totals, we can assume he can handle that workload.
The same assumption can’t be made about the rest of the rotation.
The Pirates have been led by a combo of Keller, left-handed pitcher Bailey Falter, and right-handed rookies Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. Out of those four pitchers, Keller is the only starter who has thrown more than 120-130 innings in a season.
Skenes threw 122.2 innings last year at LSU, which was his first full-season working exclusively as a pitcher. He threw another 6.2 innings in pro ball. This year he’s at 73.2 innings. If we assume 16 more starts at five innings each, that puts him around 150 innings this year.
Jones pitched 126.1 innings last year between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s at 86 innings this year in the majors. Using the same 16 start and five inning per start assumption, Jones would finish with around 165-170 innings, which is a more significant increase. It shouldn’t be a surprise that the Pirates are pushing Jones back for extra rest this weekend.
Falter pitched 127.2 innings last year between Triple-A and the majors. He’s at 83.1 innings this year, and would be on pace for the 160+ inning range with a full season. Falter said that he ran out of gas in the fourth inning of his last start, and you have to wonder if that’s an individual day problem, or a season workload problem.
Luis Ortiz is an interesting situation to consider when thinking about Falter’s increase. He’s worked more in relief this year, so he only has 53 innings. He pitched 143.1 innings last year between Triple-A and the majors. His numbers weren’t good last year, and are better this year in a reduced role, with occasional starts.
The presence of Ortiz as the 6th/7th starter will allow the Pirates to rest Skenes/Jones/Falter throughout the season, as they each push new innings totals.
The return of Martin Perez this weekend will also help. Perez only pitched 141.2 innings last year, but threw 196.1 innings in 2022. He’s already been hurt and missed time this year, which will lead to a reduced innings total. He currently has 57.1 innings, and will be able to handle any increase the remainder of the season.
The top depth option in the minors is Braxton Ashcraft, who runs into a similar innings issue. Ashcraft is in his first full year returning from Tommy John. He’s pitched 69 innings this year, which is the highest total of his professional career. Ashcraft could help with a spot start, but if the Pirates want him for a long-term option, they might be better off using him as a reliever in an Ortiz type role. That would leave him with just over 100 innings at the end of the 2024 season.
Perez and Keller will give the rotation reliable innings that will save the bullpen. Skenes, Jones, and Falter can all reach the 150 innings total, which should allow the Pirates to keep all three in the rotation for the remainder of the year, while managing their workload with minor adjustments like we’re seeing with Jones this weekend.
From there, Ortiz and Ashcraft can provide spot starts, with Quinn Priester and the chance of a return from Marco Gonzales giving the Pirates added depth.
The Pirates have a deep rotation, with a lot of quality at the top. The downside is that three of the top five starters lack full MLB season experience. This could result in reduced effectiveness late in the season. The depth could allow the Pirates to avoid this drop off, depending on how they manage the workloads of Skenes/Jones/Falter.
Roster Moves
**The Pirates sent RHP Quinn Priester on a rehab assignment to Indianapolis.
**Henry Davis started a rehab assignment with Altoona last night.
**Abrahan Gutierrez started a rehab assignment with Bradenton.
**The Pirates optioned LHP Justin Bruihl to Indianapolis.
**Outfielder Connor Scott was released. The Pirates added Scott along with Kyle Nicolas and Zach Thompson in the Jacob Stallings trade.
Pirates Prospects Daily
Carlson Reed has a 2.21 ERA in 61 innings in Single-A, with a 76:33 K/BB ratio. He threw six innings with one run allowed on Wednesday, and has improved his control in the month of June. Read more about Reed and the rest of Wednesday’s action in the latest Pirates Prospect Watch.
Pirates Prospect Watch: Carlson Reed Looks Ready to Move Up to High-A
