Paul Skenes looked like a slam dunk pick to me last summer. There wasn’t a consensus that he would be the best pick in the draft, or that he would do what we’re currently seeing from the generational pitcher.
I can say that I saw this coming, with proof in the article above. At least, I saw the quick ascension to the majors and immediate help to the Pittsburgh Pirates rotation as a high probability. That said, the future is a concept that doesn’t really exist. We can all predict outcomes, but predicting how an outcome is reached is a completely different thing.
The Pirates didn’t just draft Skenes and delay his path to the majors. They focused on limiting his innings this year, but there was also development taking place. The biggest part of his development in his brief time in the system has been the addition of a splinker.
According to Codify on Twitter, the splinker from Skenes has been thrown 174 times this year in the majors. The pitch has led to 95 swings and 32 whiffs (33.7% whiff rate), along with 26 called strikes. The pitch is a called or swinging strike exactly one third of the time. It’s also led to 34 foul balls. Of the 29 balls put into play, there have been two singles, one double, and 26 outs.
Those are elite numbers. Skenes already had a plus fastball, and a plus slider that works as a strikeout offering. He’s shown more of his curveball lately, which is another swing and miss pitch. The splinker has solidified his status as an elite young starter.
Skenes had the potential for this pitch in college, throwing a split changeup. He throws a different changeup in pro ball, while morphing his split approach to a harder sinker offering. Batters now have to defend against a straight-on fastball that averages 99 MPH, or defending against movement from the 95 MPH splinker, the mid-80s slider, or the lower 80s curve. He also has the upper 80s changeup, which is his least-used pitch.
Even when one of his pitches isn’t working, he has three other plus offerings. When two of his pitches aren’t working, he still has better stuff than most starters in the game.
Skenes is looking like the real deal. Credit to the Pirates for advancing him to this point. Credit to Skenes for learning the new pitch so quickly, although that ability to quickly learn and implement new approaches to his game is part of what made him such an obvious pick last year. He probably could have had good results with the fastball/slider/curveball trio in pro ball. The Pirates helped Skenes add a key piece to his current arsenal.
I can’t imagine his results would have been this good without the added splinker.
Silver Linings
Wednesday’s game against the St. Louis Cardinals felt out of reach for the Pirates from the start. They were down 3-0 after four innings, and never challenged to regain the lead. In games like this, it’s best to focus on the silver lining performances that might lead to wins in the future.
The biggest silver lining was the solo home run from Henry Davis in the eighth inning. Davis hadn’t homered in the majors yet this year, although he hit seven homers in Triple-A after being sent down last month. This is hopefully a sign that he’s starting to find his swing in the majors.
The other notable silver lining was from Kyle Nicolas. The right-hander pitched two perfect innings, striking out five. Nicolas has some of the best stuff in the bullpen, with a fastball that averaged 97.8 MPH and touched 99.1 on Wednesday night. He picked up six whiffs on eight swings, led by three against the four-seam and two against his curveball.
While he has good stuff, Nicolas doesn’t appear to have the consistent confidence to rely on his stuff. An example of this was on display when he pitched in relief on June 6th against the Dodgers. The first pitch of the outing from Nicolas was a 98.9 MPH fastball low and away to Teoscar Hernandez, who took it for a single. It was a good pitch, but was an unfortunate result.
You could almost see the confidence from Nicolas dissipate after that bad outcome on June 6th. He walked his next batter, with only one pitch, a slider, in the zone. He allowed an RBI double on a first-pitch slider to the next batter, and the control got worse. He followed that with a walk that featured several pitches that were well outside of the zone. Nicolas did recover and pitched 1.1 scoreless innings following this bad inning, though that game was out of hand for the Pirates.
This wasn’t the case on Wednesday night. Nicolas attacked the zone, and had great results. There was no reason for him to lack trust in his stuff following a bad result. He also was pitching in a game where the Pirates could have come back. The home run from Davis happened between the two scoreless innings from Nicolas.
Nicolas had his best outing of the season on Wednesday, with the only outing rivaling this happening a month ago against the Brewers. Hopefully this leads to a confidence boost in his stuff, even when things aren’t going right.
Pirates Prospect Watch
Shawn Ross homered three times for Greensboro on Wednesday, while Antwone Kelly pitched a gem for Bradenton. Ross is more organizational depth, but Kelly is starting to look like a sleeper. Read more about both of their performances in the latest Pirates Prospect Watch.
Pirates Prospect Watch: Shawn Ross Homers Thrice For Greensboro
