The Pittsburgh Pirates called up right-handed pitcher Daulton Jefferies prior to Monday’s game. With the bullpen depleted after two bullpen games over the last week, Jefferies joined Dennis Santana as the middle relief options available for Monday’s contest.
As it turned out, those two relievers weren’t needed. Paul Skenes pitched six innings, allowing one run, while getting four runs of support in the first two innings. The Pirates did have a depleted bullpen group, but their best relievers were ready to go.
After Skenes made his start, he turned the ball over to Aroldis Chapman, Colin Holderman, and David Bednar for the final three scoreless frames, as the Pirates beat the Cincinnati Reds 4-1.
As I wrote yesterday, there are almost two bullpens on the Pirates roster. They’ve got the trio of Chapman, Holderman, and Bednar for games where a starter pitches six innings and hands off a lead. They also have their middle relief group for all of the other games where a starter isn’t available, or struggles.
Skenes is already showing himself to be one of the reliable pitchers through his first seven starts in the majors. On Monday, he showed that with a key adjustment after the first inning.
The Reds scored a run off Skenes in the first, as they looked like they were timing up to his fastball. Out of 19 pitches thrown in the first inning, Skenes threw his fastball ten times. He threw it nine times in the first 15 pitches, before allowing two hits off the pitch.
After those two hits and the one run allowed, Skenes adjusted to throw his secondary stuff more often. He struck out two in the second, relying heavily on his splinker. He struck out the side in the third inning, setting up the counts with his offspeed, before getting two strikeouts on fastballs. Skenes only threw three fastballs in the third inning, but got swinging strikes on all three pitches.
From there, the young rookie coasted for six shutout innings, striking out seven and giving up just the one run, while sparing the middle relief group after a bullpen day win on Sunday.
I’ve written this a few times, but what makes Skenes so good is the fact that he can have 1-2 ineffective pitches on any given day, and still have better stuff than most pitchers to beat opponents. The Reds attacked his fastball early, but the moment he switched to the secondary stuff, the Reds were thrown off their game. The fastball eventually re-emerged as an option.
Skenes whiffed 18 batters on the day, with nine whiffs on 19 swings against the splinker. He also had three whiffs on 11 swings against the curveball, with five more called strikes, making that his most effective pitch of the night.
Horizontal vs Vertical Movement
There has been criticism of the fastball shape from Skenes, and if I’m honest, the fastball shape community seems like they’re missing a key component about hitting. There’s a desire to have the “ideal” pitch shape from a pitcher, which in theory can fool any hitter. The reality is that any pitcher can have success with any pitch, as long as they pair it with other quality offerings to keep a hitter off balance.
The fastball shape from Skenes becomes irrelevant with his overall arsenal.
Skenes has a fastball that doesn’t offer a lot of vertical movement, but does offer horizontal movement. His four-seam averages 16 inches of vertical break this year, ranking last among his pitches. It also has 14 inches of horizontal break, which is tied for second among his offerings.
In a vacuum, it could be easier for hitters to attack this pitch. If they can time the pace of the 99.3 average MPH velocity, the fastball mostly stays on the same horizontal plane from a vertical standpoint. From there, it’s about anticipating the horizontal movement in that zone.
The problem with this theory and approach is that Skenes throws so many other pitches with movement. His splinker has the same 14 inches of horizontal break, but averages 30 inches of vertical break. The pitch looks like a fastball, only to fall off the table at the very end, at double the depth of his fastball.
Skenes gets the most vertical break from his curveball, with 46 inches of movement, paired with 10 inches of horizontal break. The pitch can be thrown for strikes, and works well as a recovery option, as he starts the pitch out of the zone, only for it to drop in at the last second.
The slider was the best secondary offering from Skenes entering pro ball. He gets 32 inches of vertical break from the pitch, with only eight inches of horizontal break. The fastball/slider combo gives one extreme horizontal pitch in the fastball, and one extreme vertical pitch in the slider. He also throws a changeup that has his most horizontal break (17 inches), with 32 inches of vertical break.
It might be an issue if Skenes had a horizontal breaking fastball with other horizontal breaking pitches. The fact that he has four pitches with 30+ inches of vertical break means that you can either try and track his 99+ MPH East-West fastball, or you can guess which of his North-South secondary offerings are coming.
The Reds showed that Skenes can be hit if you track his fastball on a day where he uses the fastball a lot.
Skenes showed that he can quickly shift to other pitches and shut down opponents trying to eliminate his *entire assortment* of secondary offerings.
From there, the fastball becomes a weapon again, as hitters get back to guessing between the horizontal or vertical attack, rather than selling out to horizontal tracking.
The Shutdown Bullpen
The biggest offseason addition for the Pirates was the $10.5 million they gave Aroldis Chapman. He’s struggled at times this year, but currently has a 3.81 ERA in 26 innings, with a 15.23 K/9 and a 9.00 BB/9. He’s allowed a 1.04 ERA since May 29th, across nine appearances.
David Bednar got off to a rough start as the closer this year. Since May 4th, he has a 1.86 ERA in 19.1 innings, while converting 10 save opportunities. He’s looking like an elite closer once again.
Colin Holderman has emerged as a late inning shutdown option this year. He has an 0.73 ERA in 24.2 innings, with a 10.2 K/9 and a 3.65 BB/9. Holderman’s emergence has allowed the Pirates to get creative with Chapman, using him in either the seventh or eighth inning, depending on the matchup.
This trio gives the Pirates a playoff quality bullpen, capable of shutting down the final three innings of close games.
Add them to the starting group of Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Skenes, and Bailey Falter, and the Pirates have a pitching group that could contend in the post-season.
Pirates Prospect Watch
The Indianapolis Indians have added some pitching depth lately, with Braxton Ashcraft making his Triple-A debut this past week, and Jake Woodford making his Pirates debut. They were two of the top performers in Triple-A last week. I broke down the weekly results throughout the system in the latest Pirates Prospect Watch.
Pirates Prospect Watch: Indianapolis is Regaining Depth For Pittsburgh
