In my prospect rankings this year, I’ve been introducing the concept of Current Values.
Most prospect rankings focus on a Future Value. This becomes confusing when paired with an Estimated Time Arrival to the Majors. As an example of this, if you go to the FanGraphs page for Jared Jones, you’ll see that he had an ETA of 2024, and a Future Value of 55.
The ETA is obviously correct, as Jones is in the majors this year. The problem is that there’s no ETA on the Future Value.
The Future, as a concept, doesn’t actually exist. The only thing which exists is the Present and the memory of the Past. Future Values give the idea that there’s a time period where Jones will inevitably be an above-average starter in the majors, which is what the 55 FV grade represents. As Pirates fans know too well, this may never happen, as nothing in the Future is guaranteed for prospects.
I highlight Jones because he has pitched well this year. He has a 3.66 ERA in 86 innings, with a 3.81 FIP. He’s struck out 26.5% of hitters, with a 7.1% walk rate.
The league average ERA/FIP in 2024 is 4.02. The average strikeout rate is 22.2% and the average walk rate is 8.3%. By all of those metrics, Jones is above-average.
If the focus shifts to qualified pitchers, the field drops to 73 players. Of that group, Jones ranks 51st in ERA, 42nd in FIP, 17th in strikeouts, and 37th in walks. This set of stats tells the story a bit better. The overall results are below-average for the group, but the strikeouts make him one of the more appealing pitchers for future results.
From a league perspective, Jones is above-average right now. From the perspective of comparing him to his peers in the league, he’s below-average. It’s not bad to be below-average among the best in the league. I personally like expanding the qualified list to ~150 pitchers, so you get what should be a top five for each team. That qualified list would include every pitcher with 40+ innings this year.
In this expanded group, Jones ranks 80th in ERA, 66th in FIP, 27th in strikeout rate, and 70th in walk rate. He’s around average with his ERA, slightly above-average with his FIP, and once again the strikeout rate is among the best in the game.
Jones right now would rank as a 50 Current Value. This does nothing to remove his Future Value of 55+. It just acknowledges that right now, in his rookie season, he’s closer to league average.
I write this a day after Jones pitched seven innings, allowing two runs on three hits, with three walks and eight strikeouts. That’s an above-average result, and helped the Pirates to a win over the Rays on Saturday. Jones gets the higher Future Value rating due to these types of starts.
Despite this outing, Jones has a 5.00 ERA in his last five starts, due to two blow-ups. That’s going to happen early in his career. It’s why he has a Current Value of 50. He’s capable of giving you 55+ valued starts, but he’s also capable of dipping lower than 50-grade in some starts. The average ends up a 50-grade on the season.
I look at Mitch Keller as a great example of how Current Value and Future Value differ. Keller had a 1.1 fWAR in 2021, which was his first extended season in the majors. He followed with a 2.1 WAR the next year, and improved to 3.3 last year. In a way, you could see Keller’s Current Value improving from 45 to 50 to 55, where he was projected as a prospect. It’s taken him a few seasons, and a lot of adjustments to his pitch selection, to reach a 55 Current Value.
The good thing about Jones is that he’s starting so high. There’s a chance for him to further his development in the same way Keller did, while reaching the 55-grade earlier in his career. Jones has an elite pitch combo of a 70-grade fastball and a 70-grade slider, but he will need to improve his curveball and changeup for when one or both of those elite pitches aren’t effective. This will help to reduce the bad starts that are dragging down his 55+ grade outings.
The ETA/Future Value combo gives the perception that a player should arrive in a specific year at his Future Value. This creates concern among fans when a player like Jones has natural struggles during his rookie season. Jones will put up some bad starts this year, and might end up closer to a 50-grade result on the season. His Future Value is still theoretically higher.
At this point, Jones has reached a Current Value that is good enough to pitch in the majors, with a chance to develop into a higher Future Value at the MLB level. This is how it works with every player.
Of course, the future isn’t real. Not every player will reach a forecasted future value. Some might stay the same, and some might decline. Based on what we’ve seen from Jones so far, I think he’ll continue to progress and reach his higher Future Value. If I had to give a FVETA, I’d say that Jones could be a 55-grade performer by the end of the 2025 season. Until then, he’s a guy who belongs in the MLB rotation to further his development, with no need to panic when he’s not looking like a 55-grade pitcher.
The same could be said for Paul Skenes, though I think Skenes might be at a 55+ Current Value as we wait to see what a 65 Future Value looks like from a pitcher in Pittsburgh.
Depth is on the Way
Indianapolis had three rehab appearances last night. Martin Perez threw five innings as the starter, getting up to 63 pitches. The left-handed starter could return to the MLB rotation with those numbers, as the Pirates have been using a bullpen approach in his place. He could build up his pitches and innings in that role at the MLB level, pairing with Carmen Mlodzinski to get to at least six innings. Or, the Pirates could keep him down for one more outing to get further stretched out.
Joey Bart started his first game behind the plate in his rehab appearance in Triple-A. Bart should take over as the starting catcher in Pittsburgh once he’s healthy enough to return.
Ji-Hwan Bae played a full game as the designated hitter. Bae hasn’t performed well enough to secure a spot in the majors, but remains a depth option in Triple-A.
The Pirates have seen recent boosts to their upper level depth. Joshua Palacios recently returned from injury, and has been hitting well. They also signed veteran pitchers Jake Woodford and Luis Cessa recently, adding to the pitching depth.
Another boost to the Pirates’ depth will take place on Sunday. Mike Burrows will make a rehab start in Bradenton, getting closer to returning to Triple-A after Tommy John surgery early in 2023. Burrows should be on a restricted innings total, and it will be interesting to see if the Pirates use him as depth, or just let him rehab this year.
Pirates Prospect Watch
Charles McAdoo was promoted to Altoona recently, and looked great in his first game. McAdoo hit a home run, a double, and had a nice web gem at third base. Read more about the 2023 13th round pick in the latest Pirates Prospect Watch:
Pirates Prospect Watch: Charles McAdoo Homers and Has a Web Gem in Double-A Debut
