We are about six weeks into the 2024 minor league season, and some trends are beginning to develop in the Pittsburgh Pirates system. Those trends aren’t much different from the trends seen at the Major League level.
In the first update to my original top 50 tiered rankings, I couldn’t help but notice how many of the top hitting prospects in the system aren’t producing. It’s not just the lack of production, but the complete reversal of the scouting reports reflected in the stats.
On the pitching side, the Pirates are getting better results, with a few success stories, and growing depth. They also feature two of the best young arms in the game at the top of the system, at least for this one final prospect update.
Below are my top 50 tiered rankings, version 2.0, with a deeper look at how the tiers break down. Check the site next week for a closer look at how the prospects on each minor league team are developing.
Most of the rankings below are for paying subscribers. I would greatly appreciate your support of just $5 per month to access this article, plus all of the other informative player features linked throughout these rankings.
TIER ONE: THE GAME CHANGERS
For years, I’ve been writing about some of the best prospects in the game, and their chances to impact the Pirates roster. For years, most of those prospects haven’t lived up to the hype. At least, not in Pittsburgh. Some of the best prospects over the last decade ended up going elsewhere to have success.
This year, it looks like the Pirates are finally scratching some of that game changing upside from their top prospects. They currently have the two best pitching prospects in the game at the Major League level, and both are looking as advertised, or better.
Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh (50 CV/70 FV) – Less than a year ago, the Pirates drafted Skenes first overall, adding a pitcher who was described as a generational talent. Last weekend, Skenes made his MLB debut, and looked good through four innings. Skenes has added a new pitch, a mid-90s splinker, which is a cross between a sinker and a splitter. This pitch gives him a third plus offering, to go with his triple-digits fastball and hard slider. He also throws a changeup and curveball, both of which could be considered average to above-average. Skenes brings competitive energy to the mound with every pitch, and he’s got more than enough to get MLB hitters out for years.
Jared Jones, RHP, Pittsburgh (55/65) – Jones has a bit of a different profile than Skenes, yet both pitchers rank close as potential top of the rotation guys. He doesn’t have the vast arsenal of Skenes, but his fastball and slider are two legitimate plus offerings. Jones has also made strides with his own curveball and changeup, giving him options when one of his main pitches isn’t working. The intensity from Jones is greater, with a confidence level backing a heavy attack in the zone. Jones has given up home runs early, but he’s not issuing walks, is striking out over a batter an inning, and is already looking like a present day above-average starter through his first 47 innings. Jones will actually lose prospect eligibility before this post is published. (Editor’s Note: He did, with six innings on Thursday night.) I’m including him to highlight that the Pirates have two starters with top of the rotation upside, who are both showing that present day value in the majors.
TIER TWO: ABOVE-AVERAGE POTENTIAL OR MORE
By the end of this season, this group will be the best in the system. While Skenes and Jones provide present-day help for the Pirates, and an immediate chance at above-average or better results, this tier has players who will take some time to get to their above-average potential. That could be one year from now, or it could be longer.
Bubba Chandler, RHP, Altoona (30/55) – Chandler has an explosive fastball that works in the mid-to-upper 90s. He’s made strides in the last year with his slider and changeup, as well as his maturity in his development. He has a 4.13 ERA in 24 innings with Altoona this year, which is inflated from a 3.10 ERA after his most recent outing. Chandler will need some work in the upper levels, especially when it comes to not allowing the game to speed up on him in big moments. He could arrive in the majors by the end of 2025, and his rapid development ability might actually speed that process up.
Thomas Harrington, RHP, Altoona (30/55) – [ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]
I’m bumping Harrington up in my rankings, giving him a jump from tier three with an above-average ranking. He’s only pitched three innings with Altoona this season, after starting the year with a shoulder issue. He also doesn’t have elite stuff, with a fastball that sits low 90s. He’s a smart pitcher on the mound, who gets the most out of his pitches. He also helps other players with their understanding of their stuff, showing that he already possesses an advanced understanding of pitchability. He might fall short on the upside, but he’s got a safer chance than anyone in this tier of being a Major League starter.
Anthony Solometo, LHP, Altoona (30/55) – Solometo hasn’t had the best results this season, putting up a 5.68 ERA in 19 innings with Altoona. He’s had two outings where he threw shutout ball across seven combined innings. In every other appearance, he’s been limited to around three innings, giving up a run per inning on average, with control issues popping up. He’s got a deceptive delivery, and good stuff from the left side. He’s also in his age 21 season, and has plenty of time to develop in the upper levels, with starter ability in the big leagues.
Termarr Johnson, INF, Greensboro (25/60) – I’m dropping Johnson in the rankings a bit, not because of him, but because of the Pirates’ track record of development. In a system with better hitting development, Johnson would challenge Chandler as the best prospect in the system after the tier one pitchers. Instead, he’s batting .165/.374/.229 with a 23.8% strikeout rate and almost no power. Johnson is an advanced hitter, with a good ability to adjust and make contact. I don’t think he’s being challenged in A-ball, and his adjustment and contact ability seems to be giving way to a power approach. He’s got the most upside in this tier, but the least likely chance that this system will allow him to reach that upside.
TIER THREE: STARTER POTENTIAL
This group had Nick Gonzales moving up into the mix, before Gonzales was promoted. I still think the 2020 first rounder can be a starter, and Gonzales is off to a good start in his return to Pittsburgh. The three players below are the remaining players who I would give a good chance at being starters one day in the majors.
Braxton Ashcraft, RHP Altoona (30/50) – Ashcraft is in his first full season returning from Tommy John, and is starting to heat up. He threw seven shutout innings with ten strikeouts this week, after five shutout frames in his last start. He has a mid-to-upper 90s fastball that can hit 97-98 often, along with a plus slider and a developing changeup. He’s got the potential to be an impact reliever in the majors, but has more upside as a starter.
Tsung-Che Cheng, INF, Altoona (25/50) – Cheng is a similar situation to Termarr Johnson, in that he’s got advanced contact skills, which aren’t showing up in the game. He’s batting .192/.333/.293 with three homers in Altoona this year. He can play a good middle infield, and has some pop in his bat from a 5′ 7″ frame. He also makes smart swing decisions, and is competitive in every at-bat. At the least, he could reach the majors as a backup infielder, but he’s got the chance to hit his way into a more regular role. Like Johnson, this might be impacted by the system’s lack of hitting development skills.
Hunter Barco, LHP, Greensboro (25/50) – Barco is one of the biggest risers in the system early this season. I had him inside the top 25 heading into the year, placed near the top of tier five, which was still the system depth tier reflected below. He’s in his first full pro season, after returning from Tommy John. So far, he has a 1.65 ERA in 27.1 innings, with 34 strikeouts and eight walks. He can get his fastball up to the 94-95 range, but mostly works low-90s with a good ability to pitch and get strikeouts. He should arrive in Altoona by the end of the year, for a bigger challenge than he’s facing in High-A.
TIER FOUR: STARTING CHANCES
Not every prospect will work out, but the top three tiers in this system provide the Pirates with nine players who could one day start in the big leagues. Since the prospect game is a game of attrition, you want depth. The Pirates need alternatives, in the event the guys above don’t max out their potential. This third tier represents players with a chance at starting in the majors one day, albeit with more risk than the previous tier.
Lonnie White Jr., OF, Greensboro (20/50) – I’m dropping White Jr. down slightly due to his strikeout issues this year. The outfielder is showing a lot of power, hitting six home runs in 90 at-bats in High-A. He has a .189 average and a 36% strikeout rate. This continues the trend of top hitters batting under .200, but aiming for power. In this case, White’s game might be more geared for power than contact. He’s shown the power ability, and the 21-year-old will spend his first full season in pro ball looking to improve on the contact. He makes quick adjustments, and it will be something to watch to see how he improves on the swing and miss in a system that has so much of that going around.
Michael Kennedy, LHP, Bradenton (20/50) – I wrote about Kennedy’s cerebral approach this month for Baseball America. He’s the top prospect in Bradenton, and has propelled himself up the rankings with a 3.72 ERA and a 34:3 K/BB ratio in 29 innings this year. Kennedy looks like a guy who could move through A-ball quickly, though he’s only in his age-19 season, so I don’t expect the Pirates to move him too quickly this year. He has a chance to start one day, led by his ability to make adjustments, and look to any source for potential improvements to his game.
Jack Brannigan, INF, Greensboro (20/50) – Brannigan has improved his strikeout rate this season in his return to Greensboro. He’s not hitting for average, but he is getting on base at a high rate, while also hitting for power. On top of the three-outcomes approach, he plays quality defense all around the infield, with Gold Glove quality defense at third base. He adjusted his approach at the plate late last year to reduce the strikeouts, and I think he could take a big step forward this summer as the entire approach gets more comfortable.
Zander Mueth, RHP, FCL Pirates (15/50) – I haven’t seen Mueth live, but have been impressed by what I’ve heard, and the limited views I’ve seen online. He’s got one of the highest upsides of the remaining pitchers, and is getting his first shot in pro ball this year in the FCL. He’s gotten his fastball up to the upper 90s out of high school, working from a deceptive delivery with the chance to fill out his 6′ 6″ frame. There is a lot of upside from last year’s 67th overall pick, who has a 1.23 ERA in his first 7.1 innings, striking out eight.
Alessandro Ercolani, RHP, Greensboro (20/45) – Ercolani is a talented 20-year-old starter out of San Marino, who features a six pitch mix, led by a 93 MPH high spin fastball and two strikeout pitches in a cutter and slider. The Pirates sent him to High-A, where he has a 3.12 ERA in 26 innings, with 29 strikeouts and ten walks. He’s improved his walk rate this year over last year, while seeing a bump in strikeouts at the higher level. His six-pitch mix will give him a lot of opportunity to reach the majors as a starter, and he could end this season in Altoona if he keeps pitching the way he’s pitched so far.
Patrick Reilly, RHP, Greensboro (20/45) – The Pirates added Reilly out of Vanderbilt last year, and may have gotten a sleeper. He’s got a fastball that sits mid-90s, touching 98, along with a cutter that generates strikeouts. He’s got a 5.20 ERA in 27.2 innings, striking out 39 in that time. He’s also walked 13, which is a reduction over his control issues from last season. If Reilly can continue improving his control, he could at least have a shot at the majors as a power reliever. The Pirates are smart to develop him as a starter for now, hoping to capitalize on a fast worker who changes speeds with difficult movement on his pitches.
Mike Burrows, RHP, Altoona (30/50) – Burrows is returning from Tommy John this season, and likely won’t be a factor for the Pirates with a limited workload. He could reach the majors next season if he returns as the pitcher he was prior to the injury. I’ve got him ranked close to the pre-injury upside, just with more risk involved during the rehab process. He could jump up closer to the top ten by the end of this season.
TIER FIVE: SYSTEM DEPTH
This is where the Pirates get a lot of good marks for their system strength. The depth of this system features a lot of players who could put together a good season of development and jump to the upper tiers as someone the Pirates could count upon. If you’re plotting out future teams, I’d only loosely count on the first two tiers, with tier three as a possibility. That doesn’t mean that having depth isn’t good. By the end of this season, one of these players may justifiably move themselves into a higher tier with continued experience.
Jun-Seok Shim, RHP, FCL Pirates (10/50) – Shim is currently out with a shoulder injury, after an elbow injury in 2021 and a thoracic muscle injury last season. Without the injuries, he has some of the best stuff in the lower levels of the Pirates system, even ranking ahead of Mueth. He ranks lower in this rating, due to his constant injuries and lack of development. He could be a tier four guy with a chance to move higher if he returns healthy and gets his development back on track.
David Matoma, RHP, FCL Pirates (15/45) – Matoma has thrown five shutout innings this year in the FCL, striking out eight batters. The 18-year-old from Uganda has been said to get his fastball up to triple-digits, and is developing rapidly at a young age. The next step appears to be stretching him out a bit, with the Pirates giving him two innings of work in his most recent outing. He’s yet to allow a run in 21.2 innings of pro ball over the last two seasons.
Jhonny Severino, INF, FCL Pirates (15/45) – The Pirates acquired Severino from the Brewers last year in the Carlos Santana trade. The 19-year-old has power potential from the left side of the infield, and is hitting .333/.429/.500 early this season in the FCL. He’s yet to homer, but has four doubles, after hitting five homers in the FCL last season.
Matt Gorski, OF, Indianapolis (30/40) – On Thursday night, Gorski hit a home run and a double, with both hits leaving in excess of 110 MPH. His ability to hit for power while playing positive defense in center field is what makes him a prospect. He strikes out a lot, and is batting .239 with a .268 OBP. If he can improve the contact or on-base abilities, he could emerge as a depth option for the Pirates’ outfield. At this point, his odds of starting seem slim, but he still has a shot at reaching the majors.
Khristian Curtis, RHP, Bradenton (20/50) – I like Curtis as a sleeper with an extreme risk of eventually being a starter. He has a six pitch mix, led by an mid-to-upper 90s fastball which hits 97-98 MPH consistently. Curtis deals with control issues, and has been hit hard this year, allowing seven homers in 23.1 innings. He also has struck out 23 in that span. He could develop into a reliever in the majors one day if his control improves. He doesn’t have a lot of experience pitching, so I’m not holding the early results against him, despite being a 12th rounder out of college last year.
Jase Bowen, OF, Altoona (20/45) – Bowen is similar to Gorski in value, as an outfielder with positive defensive value and the ability for power and speed. He hasn’t been hitting for a lot of power this year in Altoona, or hitting much of anything. He’s got a .218/.283/.282 line with a 24.2% strikeout rate, but you’d be hard-pressed to find many hitters who are performing well in this farm system. In his age-23 season, Bowen has some time to adjust his hitting and make the jump to the upper-levels.
Bralyn Brazoban, OF, DSL Pirates (10/50) – The Pirates signed the 17-year-old Brazoban out of the Dominican Republic this January to one of the biggest international bonuses in team history. He’s 6′ 1″, 180 pounds, with the chance to be a five-tool player. He’s yet to make his pro debut, which will likely come later in the summer for MLB’s number 38 ranked international prospect in the most recent class.
Estuar Suero, OF, FCL Pirates (15/50) – The Pirates got Suero from the Padres last year in the Rich Hill/Ji Man Choi trade. Suero is in his age-18 season, and has a tall, projectable frame with a lot of power potential. He’s also shown swing and miss early in his career, which has extended to this season. In seven games so far in the FCL, Suero is batting .208/.208/.333 with a 37.5% strikeout rate. He’s ranked here for his frame and upside as one of the best wild card prospects in the lower levels.
Mitch Jebb, INF, Greensboro (20/50) – Jebb is one of the more concerning hitting stories in the system this year. Drafted in the second round last year for a plus ability to make contact, he’s struck out 27.4% of the time in Greensboro, with a .205/.276/.311 line in 135 plate appearances. Either he wasn’t anywhere close to the advertised player on draft day, or he’s another hitter in this system who is getting his development botched. He has a great work ethic, elite speed, and can play the middle infield spots. All of that has value only if the contact skills show up.
Carlson Reed, RHP, Bradenton (20/50) – Reed was drafted in the fourth round out of West Virginia last season, and has been converted to a starter in pro ball. This is going well so far. He has a 1.71 ERA in 31.2 innings, with a 10.2 K/9 thanks to his three-pitch mix and strikeout slider. His downside at the time of the draft was control, and he’s walking 5.1 per nine this year. These numbers come in Single-A, and will be something to watch as he moves up to a more advanced level. That should come this summer, after he gets used to pitching in longer outings.
Keiner Delgado, INF, Bradenton (20/45) – The Pirates added Delgado in the JT Brubaker trade, getting a 20-year-old middle infield wild card to develop. After hitting .293/.414/.485 with the FCL Yankees last year, he was moved up to Single-A with the Pirates. He’s currently batting .242/.265/.485, showing some pop with his bat, along with the system trend of a high strikeout rate (26.5%). The strikeouts weren’t a feature in his game with the Yankees, with a 13% rate last year in rookie ball.
Charles McAdoo, INF, Greensboro (20/45) – McAdoo is one of the rare hitting success stories in the system this year. He’s batting .308/.381/.538 in 134 plate appearances for Greensboro, with six home runs and a 20.9% strikeout rate. The Pirates drafted him out of San Jose State in the 13th round last year, and he’s hit well at both stops in A-ball. The jump to Double-A will be the biggest test, and that could come by this summer if he continues hitting well. He’s also been spending a lot of time at third base, though he profiles as a bat-first guy in a corner spot or at second base.
Hunter Stratton, RHP, Pittsburgh (40/45) – Stratton will lose his prospect status by the end of this month with just three more relief appearances needed. He’s shown himself to be a reliable MLB reliever, with a chance to be a high-leverage situation pitcher. Looking at his metrics, he gets great ratings in velocity (95.4 MPH average), chase rates, whiff rates, control (3.6% walk rate), and ultimately strikeouts (26.5%). Opposing hitters don’t make hard contact against him, and his slider is generating a 52.6% whiff rate. Stratton has secured his spot in the big leagues this year, and could have a shot as a long-term MLB reliever.
Malcom Nunez, 1B/3B, Indianapolis (35/40) – There are a few upper level players who I’m beginning to downgrade in terms of their chances of starting in the majors. Nunez is batting .273/.321/.430, hitting for decent power with good plate patience decisions. He can play third base, but is lower on the depth chart at that position with many players ahead of him. His best value would be first base, but his power hasn’t played well enough to be a starter. He could be a depth option for the Pirates this year, and he’s only in his age-23 season. There is still a chance for him to emerge with more power to look like a first base option.
Tres Gonzales, OF, Altoona (20/45) – Gonzales shows good hitting skills, with little pop in his bat, but a hard enough work ethic to hit and field his way to a depth role in the big leagues. He’s another player who is struggling offensively this year, batting .222/.286/.267 across 100 plate appearances in his jump to Altoona. I have him ranked in this tier due to what I’ve seen from him in person, rather than the numbers he’s shown in the early part of 2024.
Po-Yu Chen, RHP, Altoona (20/45) – Chen has good secondary stuff, and the ability for plus control at times. He doesn’t have strikeout stuff, and lacks a dominant fastball. There are times when he looks like a starter who could make the majors as a depth option or a reliever. Most of his starts this season have led to hard hits and almost one run allowed per inning. The advanced secondary stuff and pitchability gets him ranked in this tier.
TIER SIX: SLEEPERS
The final group includes sleepers who round out the top 50. There are actually only 49 prospects listed in this article, after the recent graduation of Nick Gonzales. There are now 48 prospect-eligible players after Thursday’s graduation of Jared Jones. These are the players to watch to see if the Pirates can replenish the system with more upper-tier talent. Some of them are just low-risk depth options for the next few seasons.
Carlos Caro, INF, FCL Pirates; J.P. Massey, RHP, Greensboro; Sean Sullivan, RHP, Altoona; Ryder Ryan, RHP, Indianapolis; Omar Alfonzo, C, Bradenton; Garret Forrester, C/1B, Bradenton; Tony Blanco Jr., 1B/DH, FCL Pirates; Kyle Nicolas, RHP, Pittsburgh; Carlos Jimenez, RHP, Bradenton; Matt Fraizer, OF, Indianapolis; Aaron Shortridge, RHP, Altoona; Yordany De Los Santos, INF, FCL Pirates; Carter Bins, C, Altoona; Adbiel Feliz, INF, DSL Pirates; Esmerlyn Valdez, 1B/OF, Bradenton; Owen Kellington, RHP, Bradenton; Valentin Linarez, RHP, Altoona
[/ppp_patron_only]
