We are about six weeks into the 2024 minor league season, and some trends are beginning to develop in the Pittsburgh Pirates system. Those trends aren’t much different from the trends seen at the Major League level.
In the first update to my original top 50 tiered rankings, I couldn’t help but notice how many of the top hitting prospects in the system aren’t producing. It’s not just the lack of production, but the complete reversal of the scouting reports reflected in the stats.
On the pitching side, the Pirates are getting better results, with a few success stories, and growing depth. They also feature two of the best young arms in the game at the top of the system, at least for this one final prospect update.
Below are my top 50 tiered rankings, version 2.0, with a deeper look at how the tiers break down. Check the site next week for a closer look at how the prospects on each minor league team are developing.
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TIER ONE: THE GAME CHANGERS
For years, I’ve been writing about some of the best prospects in the game, and their chances to impact the Pirates roster. For years, most of those prospects haven’t lived up to the hype. At least, not in Pittsburgh. Some of the best prospects over the last decade ended up going elsewhere to have success.
This year, it looks like the Pirates are finally scratching some of that game changing upside from their top prospects. They currently have the two best pitching prospects in the game at the Major League level, and both are looking as advertised, or better.
Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh (50 CV/70 FV) – Less than a year ago, the Pirates drafted Skenes first overall, adding a pitcher who was described as a generational talent. Last weekend, Skenes made his MLB debut, and looked good through four innings. Skenes has added a new pitch, a mid-90s splinker, which is a cross between a sinker and a splitter. This pitch gives him a third plus offering, to go with his triple-digits fastball and hard slider. He also throws a changeup and curveball, both of which could be considered average to above-average. Skenes brings competitive energy to the mound with every pitch, and he’s got more than enough to get MLB hitters out for years.
Jared Jones, RHP, Pittsburgh (55/65) – Jones has a bit of a different profile than Skenes, yet both pitchers rank close as potential top of the rotation guys. He doesn’t have the vast arsenal of Skenes, but his fastball and slider are two legitimate plus offerings. Jones has also made strides with his own curveball and changeup, giving him options when one of his main pitches isn’t working. The intensity from Jones is greater, with a confidence level backing a heavy attack in the zone. Jones has given up home runs early, but he’s not issuing walks, is striking out over a batter an inning, and is already looking like a present day above-average starter through his first 47 innings. Jones will actually lose prospect eligibility before this post is published. (Editor’s Note: He did, with six innings on Thursday night.) I’m including him to highlight that the Pirates have two starters with top of the rotation upside, who are both showing that present day value in the majors.
TIER TWO: ABOVE-AVERAGE POTENTIAL OR MORE
By the end of this season, this group will be the best in the system. While Skenes and Jones provide present-day help for the Pirates, and an immediate chance at above-average or better results, this tier has players who will take some time to get to their above-average potential. That could be one year from now, or it could be longer.
Bubba Chandler, RHP, Altoona (30/55) – Chandler has an explosive fastball that works in the mid-to-upper 90s. He’s made strides in the last year with his slider and changeup, as well as his maturity in his development. He has a 4.13 ERA in 24 innings with Altoona this year, which is inflated from a 3.10 ERA after his most recent outing. Chandler will need some work in the upper levels, especially when it comes to not allowing the game to speed up on him in big moments. He could arrive in the majors by the end of 2025, and his rapid development ability might actually speed that process up.
Thomas Harrington, RHP, Altoona (30/55) –
