What is a “sleeper”?
In the prospect game, the concept of sleepers and breakouts is used to identify players who are off the radar. So much attention is paid to prospect rankings, which center around the top ten prospects in any system. This leaves a lot of potential MLB players out of the mix. Even with a top 30 ranking, there are going to be future MLB players who are left out.
A sleeper can be someone who everyone else is sleeping on as a potential MLB player. It can also be a player with the talent to be a top prospect, who is currently sleeping in terms of his production. Whether the player decides to wake up and maximize his ability, or followers start to wake up to the ability of the player, the central concept of a sleeper is that they have the opportunity to be seen as better than their current ranking.
This year, I’ve put more focus into the “sleeper” label. I’ve been running a “Saturday Sleepers” series, highlighting an off-the-radar player. Some of these sleepers are already inside my own top 30 rankings. Some of them aren’t even inside my top 50. In each case, I’ve seen talent or an ability that could get a player to the majors, and with a higher ranking than they have. Some of the players still remain sleeping.
In my latest prospect rankings, I included a sleeper tier. That group is meant to highlight players who can still improve upon their current rankings and status.
Sleeper Tier
Here are the players who made my sleeper tier. I’m not a fan of individual numbered rankings. I believe the separation of value between any two players in this tier is minimal. On any given day, I would rank the group below in a brand new order, based on what I’m prioritizing that day. I would probably drop Carlos Caro to the bottom of this list for a true ranking. He was a late addition to this tier, and I listed him pretty high up.
These are the sleepers in the system, per my latest rankings.
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Carlos Caro, INF, FCL Pirates; J.P. Massey, RHP, Greensboro; Sean Sullivan, RHP, Altoona; Ryder Ryan, RHP, Indianapolis; Omar Alfonzo, C, Bradenton; Garret Forrester, C/1B, Bradenton; Tony Blanco Jr., 1B/DH, FCL Pirates; Kyle Nicolas, RHP, Pittsburgh; Carlos Jimenez, RHP, Bradenton; Matt Fraizer, OF, Indianapolis; Aaron Shortridge, RHP, Altoona; Yordany De Los Santos, INF, FCL Pirates; Carter Bins, C, Altoona; Adbiel Feliz, INF, DSL Pirates; Esmerlyn Valdez, 1B/OF, Bradenton; Owen Kellington, RHP, Bradenton; Valentin Linarez, RHP, Altoona
From this tier, you can find sleepers of all variety. At the Major League level, I believe guys like Kyle Nicolas and Ryder Ryan could ascend to bigger roles than they’ve shown. Ryan could be more than a Triple-A depth reliever, and Nicolas could emerge as an impact reliever. The difference between their current values and their sleeper values is merely a single step up in role and value.
As you move down the system, the separation between current value and future value becomes more vast. Valentin Linarez is a sleeper in Double-A because he might give the Pirates another hard-throwing reliever one day. Omar Alfonzo is a sleeper in A-ball, as he might make the majors in a more rare position. Then there are guys like Yordany De Los Santos in the lowest levels, who could find a way to make their skills click at any time, leading to a breakout that would push them to a high future value projection.
You could technically apply the sleeper level to my system depth tier, or to anyone below this sleeper tier in my rankings. Below are some of the players I’ve given the sleeper tag this year.
2024 Saturday Sleepers
The players below are who I’ve focused on so far this season in my Saturday Sleepers series.
David Matoma, RHP – The hard-throwing right-hander is in the FCL this year in his age 18 season. He’s already hit 100 MPH at his young age, and has one run allowed in nine innings this year. He’s struck out 14 in that span. I’ve got Matoma rated above the sleeper level in the system, but his lower-level placement still qualifies him for the label. He’s the highest upside sleeper on this list.
Charles McAdoo, 3B – Drafted in the 13th round last year out of San Jose State, McAdoo has been one of the best hitters in Greensboro. He’s batting .304/.385/.522 with six homers in 161 plate appearances. At this rate, he could end up with Altoona by the end of the year.
Omar Alfonzo, C – Alfonzo makes some of the hardest contact in the lower levels, consistently putting up triple-digit exit velocities. He’s batting .270/.403/.393 with nine doubles and two homers for Bradenton. He plays first base, but also has good pedigree behind the plate, with a former MLB catcher for a father.
Garret Forrester, C/1B – The Pirates have been trying Forrester behind the plate this year. Last year’s third rounder was drafted as a corner infielder with plus swing decisions. He’s batting .262/.421/.381, excelling with a high on-base rate. His bat looks better behind the plate, and the Pirates will give him the opportunity to add value to his game. Forrester has played 105 innings behind the plate, 104.2 at third base, and three at first base this season.
Carlos Jimenez, RHP – Jimenez has electric stuff, but zero control. In 16 innings this season, he has a 14.06 K/9, but also a 5.06 ERA due to an 11.25 BB/9. The 21-year-old can get his fastball up to 96-97 MPH, and features one of the best changeups in the system. When his control is on, he’s lights out. That’s been rare, but his stuff makes him a guy to continue giving chances.
Valentin Linarez, RHP – Linarez features a mid-90s fastball and plus slider which could one day play in the majors in a relief role. He struggles with control, walking 13 in 20.2 innings this year in Double-A. That’s led to a 6.53 ERA. This level will be a test to see whether he can improve the control enough to get his stuff to where it can play at the Major League level.
Wilber Dotel, RHP – I’ve been impressed with Dotel, who has made some good starts in the Greensboro rotation this year. He has a 5.52 ERA in 29.1 innings, with a 28:17 K/BB ratio. His control issues have crept up in the last month, with 11 walks in 14 innings. He has two starts which have inflated his ERA, but looks like a quality option most nights pitching in High-A.
What is a Sleeper?
Baseball development is a game of attrition. There are more than 30-50 prospects in any minor league development system, yet only 26 spots in the majors, fueled by a 40-man roster. There is a 165-player roster limit in the minors. The vast majority of those 165 players will not make the majors.
That said, not all of the top ten guys will make the majors, and many of the top 30 guys will bust in the minors.
With so many players fighting for a career in the big leagues, it’s foolish to only focus on a small percentage. That’s where you’ll find the highest odds of reaching the majors, but it’s not where you’ll find every future MLB player.
On this site, the sleeper tag is used to define players who could improve in value, outside of the top 30. There are some players who rank inside the top 30, who get the benefit of the doubt of a higher ranking from their sleeper status. The goal is ultimately to highlight players who wouldn’t normally get attention in a top 10/30 focus.
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