In 2021, the Milwaukee Brewers won first place in the NL Central, despite having the 19th best wOBA and the 23rd best wRC+ in baseball. They were eliminated by the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS in four games, scoring six runs total and being shut out in two of the losses. After the season, the Brewers fired their hitting coach, Andy Haines.
The Pittsburgh Pirates finished the 2021 season with one of the worst records in baseball at 61-101. They finished 28th in wOBA and 29th in wRC+. About one month after Haines was let go by Milwaukee, the Pirates hired him as their new hitting coach.
Haines was let go by Milwaukee in order to bring in a new voice and better framing of message, according to Brewers president of baseball operations David Stern, via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
“This was a very difficult decision that we grappled with over the past week,” said Sterns to the Sentinel on October 20th, 2021. “Andy is a very good coach and he contributed to a lot of wins here, and he deserves recognition for that. At the end of the day, we felt this was the right time to make a change; this was the right time for a new voice, maybe a little bit of a different message.”
That happens with all leadership positions. Messages go stale. Styles go out of fashion. Ultimately, results matter.
The Pirates’ decision to hire Haines has not led to massive improvements. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Pirates rank 27th in both wOBA and wRC+. In that span, they’ve yet to climb out of the bottom five teams in the league. The Brewers, meanwhile, have improved to 15th in wOBA and 17th in wRC+, jumping slightly in each stat.
The 2024 season is still new, and both teams have shown improved results over their 2022-23 combined numbers. The Pirates have climbed to middle of the pack this year, ranking 16th in wOBA and 19th in wRC+. The Brewers, on the other hand, rank second in wOBA and fourth in wRC+.
In the three years since Haines went from the Brewers to the Pirates, the Pirates have improved to where the Brewers were when they let Haines go. The Brewers, meanwhile, have improved to having one of the best offenses in the game.
The Pirates have a team .319 wOBA (16th in MLB) and a 96 wRC+ (19th). The players with above-average results in those stat fields:
wOBA/wRC+ Above-Average Players
Joey Bart – .651/306, 13 PA
Alika Williams – .377/133, 23 PA
Edward Olivares – .375/131, 45 PA
Connor Joe – .373/130, 64 PA
Ke’Bryan Hayes – .346/113, 79 PA
Bryan Reynolds – .343/111, 86 PA
Those are the six players who are fueling the current Pirates offense. None of them really speak to the skills of Haines.
Bart was added this season, and has a small sample size of success. It’s unlikely that Haines had any meaningful conversations or tips for him before Bart came in and hit his first home run for the Pirates just days later.
Olivares was added in a trade over the offseason from the Royals. He showed improved numbers last year with Kansas City, with a .376 wOBA and a 138 wRC+ in the second half. Those numbers are almost identical to what he’s done with the Pirates this year. If you credit these numbers to Haines, you remove the win from the Pirates’ scouting department for identifying Olivares as an under-valued trade target.
Williams was added last summer in a trade with the Rays. Following the deal, he went to Triple-A and hit for a .305/.384/.531 line, which were some of the best marks of his career. He’s batting .318/.375/.455 so far this season in the majors, after failing to put up good numbers in his MLB callup last season. There may have been an important adjustment made in the Pirates system with Williams, but it happened in Triple-A. Haines would get credit for overseeing the system that led to this change.
Joe is having his best season with the Pirates, but he’s putting up numbers that are similar to his 2021 season. The Pirates added Joe in 2023, after his numbers declined in 2022. He’s been on the rise two years in a row from that low point. I’m not sure what impact Haines made, but you could give Haines credit for creating the system that allowed for Joe’s improvement.
Reynolds had his best season in 2021, and has yet to get back to those levels. His best season since was 2022, and he’s putting up numbers this year similar to 2022. Reynolds has improved his strikeout numbers three years in a row, which has also come with a power reduction three years in a row. His only advantage this year over that 2021 season is a higher walk rate.
This raises a question about the best hitter on the team when Haines arrived: Was the 2021 performance from Reynolds legit? It creates the idea that there is more to be gained from his bat. Is there more than the 2-3 WAR maximum he has shown under Haines?
Hayes is an interesting case regarding Haines. Jason Mackey reported that Hayes sought out the training of Double-A hitting coach Jon Nunnally last season. That wasn’t a surprise to me. I talked with Hayes at the end of 2022, and he mentioned working with Nunnally in 2020, prior to his eventual rookie debut. The Pirates let Nunnally go after the season, despite a lot of positive reviews from players who had worked with him. They retained Haines, even as one of their core players was seeking out help from Nunnally as an alternative to the in-house Haines. Despite the firing, Hayes has said he still intends to work with Nunnally. He’s posting his best offensive numbers this year, but with the history, it would be difficult to attribute this to Haines.
I wouldn’t attribute the success of Hayes fully to Nunnally, as I don’t think a hitting coach has that much impact on a player. Every hitter has their own talent level, and range of production. The hitting coach must ensure that the hitter is always in the mindset and possessing the mechanics to perform closer to the high end of their range of possibility. They create the system that allows for hitters to grow and thrive.
Perhaps, with that in mind, the more concerning trends in 2024 are the hitters who fall below average.
Henry Davis, the number one overall pick in 2021, has a .248 wOBA and a 52 wRC+. Oneil Cruz, long regarded as one of the most talented players in the system, has a .275 wOBA and a 72 wRC+. These two hitters are regarded as crucial for the success of the Pirates offense. They represent the offensive players with the most upside. The numbers for Davis would be below-average for the worst offense in baseball, and the numbers for Cruz would only improve two teams.
It is difficult to quantify the value of a hitting coach. That said, it’s not difficult to qualify the value of Andy Haines.
- In three seasons, there have been zero success stories that you could link directly to his work or system.
- The best argument for his impact is that the Pirates climbed from the worst offense in baseball to a slightly below average group.
- The two young hitters with the biggest upsides are struggling, even on the scale of the worst offenses in the game.
- One of the core members of the team has actively turned away from the teachings of Haines, in secret. That led to improvements for the player, and the alternative hitting coach getting fired when the team found out.
Perhaps the best way to qualify and maybe quantify Haines is by pointing out the passive-aggressive approach the Pirates have adopted at the plate under him. Since Haines has taken over, the Pirates rank 26th in baseball in swing percentage. That includes 27th on pitches in the strike zone, which amounts to more free strikes for the opponent than almost any other team. That extremely passive approach has been a hallmark under Haines.
The Pirates have the third-worst called and swinging strike rate (CSW%) from 2022-24, due to the fifth worse called rate and an 18th ranked swinging strike rate.
The philosophy has been to wait for the right pitch, and to eliminate anything that isn’t in that hitting zone, even if the pitch is in the strike zone. The free strikes would increase the strikeout total, and they have. The Pirates have the second worst strikeout rate in baseball under Haines.
The payoff should be that the patience and aggressive swings come with extra walks and extra power. The Pirates rank 12th in walks and 24th in isolated power, which isn’t a combo that justifies the high strikeout rates. They’re an extreme strikeout, above-average walk, bottom-third power team. It’s three true outcomes, except for the payoff outcome.
The Pirates are currently 11-8, but a lot of their success is due to the pitching staff, which has the seventh best FIP in baseball. The offense has improved under Haines, but still has a lot of room for more improvement. It’s also difficult to attribute the improvements to Haines, and in one case, we know that the improvements came as a result of turning away from Haines.
Three years ago, the Milwaukee Brewers decided they needed a hitting upgrade. This led to them replacing Haines. The Brewers now have one of the best offenses in baseball. The Pirates are now where the Brewers were in 2021: Trying to contend with a below-average offense led by Haines. The Brewers have already displayed one path to improvement. The Pirates are going to need to eventually determine if Haines offers them the best path toward improvement from this level of production.
It’s still early, but a below-average offense all season would not be a good outcome.
