With just over two months until the 2023 draft class, there is still time for changes to be made at the top, but things have remained rather consistent throughout this whole process.
Recent mock drafts and prospect rankings have shown that there is a clear top five in this draft class. Depending on who you ask, there are either 1-2 tiers of players among those top five, and even the cutoff for that split isn’t agreed upon.
Jim Callis from MLB Pipeline was recently asked if this is the best 1-5 since the 2011 class, which was a very strong class at the top. He noted that each of the players would be candidates to go first overall in many years.
Keith Law has an article that basically says the same thing for the top two outfielders in the class.
It’s a great year to be picking top five in this class. As Law mentions, the fact that players are rated so high gives you a chance to negotiate with them against themselves. The bonus slots takes away some of that leverage, but if you’re to get a great player with either pick, is there something wrong with wanting to have more available to maximize your bonus pool elsewhere?
We have seen LSU outfielder Dylan Crews go #1 in almost every single prospect ranking and mock draft so far. Part of that consistency is that he was the #1 player going into the process, and he has been hitting an an unreal clip until this past week.
LSU pitcher Paul Skenes wasn’t rated as the top pitcher going into this process, but he wasn’t far behind. He has been the unreal pitcher version of Crews by racking up strikeouts all season, while minimizing base runners. Even his down starts this year were just down in comparison to his early dominance.
Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford had similar overall tools as Crews. A somewhat slow start (for him) and an injury mid-season has kept him from possibly competing with Crews for that top spot. Let’s face it, if you have two players who comp well in the same conference, their performance in that conference will hold some weight. Langford has been catching up though.
High school outfielders Max Clark and Walker Jenkins are very similar beyond the age/position comparison. Both were rated high coming into the year. Both did well when they were able to swing the bat, but they also both walked a ton. Most pitchers weren’t willing to challenge them. That makes it very difficult to raise their profile ahead of college players seeing more game action and many more chances to swing the bat.
We still have 58 days until the draft starts, and plenty can happen during that time. I think we are at the point where we can say that the Pittsburgh Pirates should be using that first overall pick on one of these five players.
The fact that Langford and Crews are both proving once again that they can hit the top current college pitchers, while also showing off the tools that made them top prospects, should give them an advantage over the two high school outfielders.
You would be getting a high upside bat with any of the four players. You’re getting more certainty with Crews and Langford due to higher floors. While they aren’t always seeing great pitching in college, they are seeing better pitching consistently. If you can minimize the risk without minimizing the potential reward, it seems like an easy decision.
That’s obviously not knocks on Jenkins and Clark, as you can only do so much by watching pitches in your limited playing time.
The potential risk might come into play when considering whether or not to take Skenes with that top pick. Let’s not forget that Chase Dollander was in that #2 spot to start the season. He wasn’t there due to results alone. He was there for the pitches/pitching he brought to the table. Dollander has dropped in the rankings a bit, but nothing in line with what his stats would suggest.
We are talking just two months between Dollander as the top pitcher and Skenes as easily the top pitcher in this class. That’s the same amount of time that is left before the draft starts on July 9th. Things can still change.
Pitching is volatile, and many of the top college pitchers don’t reach their potential in the majors. Injury is more of a concern at the position. However, if a team wants to go for a pitcher with the top overall pick this year, Skenes is your man. There isn’t a second option that makes sense.
This is a great year to be picking first overall. You have your choice of five players with #1 overall qualities. Whoever is the person deciding the fifth overall pick this year just needs to wait for the top four teams to make the decision for them. That’s the easiest job in the world right now.
The Pirates have a difficult decision, but it’s also one that they can get “wrong” and still have it turn out great…as long as they don’t stray from the top five players.
